MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

HOU

62-48

BOS

60-51

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

36,881 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
55.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.1%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.6± 3.6low
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.4± 2.0low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.8± 2.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

BOS

.730

OPS

◀

.715

.696

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.56

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.87

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

HOU 1 · BOS 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
HOU	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.326	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.281	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. SanchezRF	.500	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. CorreaSS	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.237	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. TrammellCF	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. DubonSS	.264	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.230	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	7	1	1	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.326

.281

.500

.000

.252

.237

.239

.256

.264

.000

.230

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
H. BrownSP	7.0	4	1	1	1	6	97
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
J. HaderRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
B. SousaRP	0.0	1	1	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	6	2	1	2	7	139

Player

7.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.283	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.301	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. Toro1B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.251	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. YoshidaDH	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.247	3	1	0	1	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Gonzalez1B	.293	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.270	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	2	6	2	0	2	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. CriswellRP	7.0	7	1	1	2	4	84
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	10.0	7	1	1	2	6	117

Team

HOU

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.