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    DET 0@CHW 0
    +4.5ppmedium
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    +7.0pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4DET
ARI

ARI

51-56

1
5
DET

DET

62-46

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
23,124 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

ARI 1 · DET 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000000101
DET110201005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 24, 25sim 95
    14
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    50
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    94
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    34
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    12
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 95
    92
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Alek Thomas

Alek Thomas

CF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI51-56
1
5
DET62-46
ARI51-56·DET62-46
ARI

ARI

51-56

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT29.496
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33010001
SPRINT25.818
AA. Del Castillo★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.326
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
1-44010000
T. EnglishT. English★OF
0-33000001
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-33111100
SPRINT27.867
J. HerreraJ. Herrera★C
0-33000002
Team7-3131171116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.0855252
K. GravemanK. GravemanRP
1.0100010
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.0100030
Team8.01055292
DET

DET

62-46

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-33010010
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-22100011
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000002
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
2-44221102
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
3-44231101
SPRINT27.765
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33011001
SPRINT27.251
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11000000
Team10-32325105229
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MeltonT. Melton★SP
7.0500050
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0111111
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0100000
Team9.0711161

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • E. Rodriguez
    95 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      36%·85.4 mph·26% whiff
    • FC
      24%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·91.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·83.5 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      65%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·76.9 mph·40% whiff
  • K. Graveman
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      40%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.5 mph·100% whiff

DET

  • T. Melton
    87 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.1 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      28%·86.2 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      7%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      81%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

1

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Jul 28ARIARI1@DETDET5today
Jul 29ARIARI2@DETDET12
Jul 30ARIARI2@DETDET7

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Jul 28ARIARI1@DETDET5today
Jul 29ARIARI2@DETDET12
Jul 30ARIARI2@DETDET7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

ARIARI
A. Thomas

A. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

T. Melton

T. Melton

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 5 H

How it ended

DET beat ARI 5-1.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 64% WP

Torkelson · singled to center, Jones scored, Torkelson to second, Torkelson safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Thomas.

DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 81% WP

Báez singled to center, Ibáñez scored, Dingler to third.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 88% WP

Ibáñez homered to left (391 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000000101
DET11020100—5

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

1

Runs

5

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

10

TB

18

1

HR

2

1

BB

2

6

K

9

12

LOB

15

Win probability

DET vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · DET won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Torkelson 1

0
1

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Vierling 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Dingler 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Thomas 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
DET

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  2. T9

    Gurriel Jr. grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, Del Castillo out at second.

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  8. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  9. T9

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  10. T9

    Del Castillo singled to center, Alexander to third.

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

    −2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  13. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    · ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  14. T9

    Alexander ran for Suárez

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  15. T9

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  16. T9

    Suárez hit by pitch.

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

    −0.7pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  21. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  22. T9

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  23. T9

    Perdomo grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

    +0.9pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  27. T9

    Will Vest pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  28. T9

    Vest relieved Kahnle

    ·

    ARI 1·DET 5

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 1·DET 5

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 1·DET 5

Player projections

DET vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.8%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    57.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.2%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.5%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175