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  • MLBTop 5
    DET 1@CHW 2
    +21.7ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4NYY
MIN

MIN

56-62

2
6
NYY

NYY

63-56

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
36,744 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

MIN 2 · NYY 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0000011002
NYY102000216

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 97
    155
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 96
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    91
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    57
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    306
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    50
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 11·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Minnesota Twins, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN56-62
2
6
NYY63-56
MIN56-62·NYY63-56
MIN

MIN

56-62

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44111103
SPRINT29.597
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.457
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-44000002
SPRINT26.326
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-33000001
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-33000000
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
0-22000000
A. MartinA. MartinLF
0-11000001
Team3-30302322011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
5.2633193
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
0.1322110
E. RamirezE. RamirezRP
2.0111021
Team8.010662124
NYY

NYY

63-56

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44011002
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44121101
SPRINT23.81
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT26.941
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-33111112
SPRINT28.175
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-44000002
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-44110002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-33110010
Team10-343461064212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
6.2322072
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.1000020
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000020
Team9.03220112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    99 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.8 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.9 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      10%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Ramirez
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      48%·90.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      35%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Kriske
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FS
      68%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.3 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    85 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.1 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      38%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      24%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • FS
      42%·92.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      25%·78.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

10

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Aug 11MINMIN2@NYYNYY6today
Aug 12MINMIN1@NYYNYY9
Aug 13MINMIN4@NYYNYY1

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Aug 11MINMIN2@NYYNYY6today
Aug 12MINMIN1@NYYNYY9
Aug 13MINMIN4@NYYNYY1
Sep 15NYYNYY0@MINMIN7
Sep 16NYYNYY10@MINMIN9
Sep 17NYYNYY10@MINMIN5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
J. Chisholm Jr.

J. Chisholm Jr.

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

NYY beat MIN 6-2.

Win probability

NYY vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 74% WP

Bellinger · homered to right center (375 feet).

NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 82% WP

Stanton · homered to center (399 feet).

MINTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+8pp→ 18% WP

Larnach · homered to right (395 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0000011002
NYY10200021—6

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · NYY won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Bellinger 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Buxton 1

1
2

Inn 7

Larnach 1

Grisham 1

0
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
NYY

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  2. T9

    Jeffers struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  8. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  9. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  10. T9

    Clemens grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  14. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  15. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  16. T9

    Buxton struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

    +0.9pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  21. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Byron Buxton

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  22. T9

    Bednar relieved Weaver

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  25. B8

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  26. B8

    Volpe grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·NYY 6

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

6

3

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

9

TB

23

2

HR

4

0

BB

2

11

K

12

3

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.7%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.4%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.