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  • WNBA6:48 - 2nd
    SEA 20@TOR 25
    +10.1pphigh
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FINAL+3MIN
MIN

MIN

57-63

4
1
NYY

NYY

64-57

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
44,466 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 4 · NYY 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0001030004
NYY0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 100
    293
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 97
    34
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 96
    152
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    35
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    33
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    291
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 13·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into New York Yankees and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN57-63
4
1
NYY64-57
MIN57-63·NYY64-57
MIN

MIN

57-63

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44110010
SPRINT26.632
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-44120011
SPRINT29.597
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-55111001
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44112002
SPRINT27.457
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-22000020
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-44000002
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44011002
SPRINT27.251
A. RodenA. Roden★LF
1-44010001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
Team8-35354840410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
6.2411271
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.1000010
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
2.0100010
Team9.0511291
NYY

NYY

64-57

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-44000001
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-33111111
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT23.81
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-33010001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22000010
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000001
Team5-3131151129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
5.0211260
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0100000
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000010
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000120
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.0200110
Team9.08444100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    102 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.0 mph·24% whiff
    • FS
      14%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      38%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      35%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      33%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.3 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      9%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      5%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FC
      72%·99.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      28%·90.4 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      44%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      38%·94.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      19%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Williams
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      36%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      56%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      44%·75.3 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Aug 11MINMIN2@NYYNYY6
Aug 12MINMIN1@NYYNYY9
Aug 13MINMIN4@NYYNYY1today

Season series

NYY lead series 2-1

Aug 11MINMIN2@NYYNYY6
Aug 12MINMIN1@NYYNYY9
Aug 13MINMIN4@NYYNYY1today
Sep 15NYYNYY0@MINMIN7
Sep 16NYYNYY10@MINMIN9
Sep 17NYYNYY10@MINMIN5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 6th Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
C. Bellinger

C. Bellinger

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIN beat NYY 4-1. Clemens's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 64% WP

Bellinger · homered to right (396 feet).

MINTop 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 56% WP

Buxton · doubled to left, Larnach to third.

MINTop 6th Inning · 3-1
+22pp→ 79% WP

Clemens · doubled to center, Keaschall and Buxton scored, Clemens safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Grisham.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0001030004
NYY0010000001

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Bellinger 1

1
0

Inn 4

Keaschall 1

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Clemens 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
NYY

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  2. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  3. B9

    Chisholm Jr. grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  9. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  10. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  11. B9

    Rice grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Domínguez out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

    −9pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  15. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Ben Rice

    · ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  16. B9

    Domínguez ran for Stanton

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  17. B9

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  18. B9

    Stanton singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

    +5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  27. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·NYY 1

  30. T9

    · ·

    MIN 4·NYY 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

12

TB

9

0

HR

1

4

BB

2

10

K

9

13

LOB

12

Player projections

NYY vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    58.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175