MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PIT

ARI

51-54

PIT

43-62

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

27,425 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
49.7%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.3%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
6.8± 3.2low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.7low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 2.7low

Hits

Jake MangumPIT
1.2± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.0high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
Spencer HorwitzPIT
2.0± 2.1high
Tyler CallihanPIT
1.9± 3.7low

RBIs

Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.1high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
0.8± 1.8low
Tyler CallihanPIT
0.8± 1.9low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

PIT

.691

OPS

.715

▶

.739

.307

OBP

.319

▶

.334

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.06

4.24

Team ERA

4.17

4.26

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

ARI 0 · PIT 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. Marte2B	.284	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.246	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.247	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. GrichukRF	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. EnglishOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCannC	.342	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.278	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BarrosaCF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	0	4	0	0	1	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.284

.246

.247

.249

.240

.000

.342

.233

.278

.167

.333

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. KellySP	6.2	6	2	1	1	3	99
A. SaalfrankRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	7
K. GravemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18
Team	8.0	6	2	1	2	4	124

Player

M. KellySP

6.2

A. SaalfrankRP

0.1

K. GravemanRP

1.0

Team

8.0

124

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Horwitz1B	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. McCutchenDH	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. PhamLF	.258	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
O. CruzCF	.217	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.238	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
L. PegueroSS	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	6	2	1	2	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. HeaneySP	5.0	2	0	0	0	4	71
G. CabreraRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	8
Y. RamirezRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	7
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
D. SantanaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	4	0	0	1	9	128

Team

ARI

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.