MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7TOR

TOR

61-42

114

DET

60-44

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

30,051 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.2%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.3%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low
Trey YesavageTOR
5.5± 2.0low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

DET

.702

OPS

.715

.706

.314

OBP

.319

.315

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

4.10

4.08

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.97

1.27

WHIP

1.31

1.28

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 11 · DET 4 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	5	4	2	0	11
DET	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. LukesRF	.265	5	2	2	2	1	0	1
G. SpringerDH	.282	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.289	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.280	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.273	4	2	1	2	0	1	0
E. Clement2B	.284	4	1	2	4	1	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.324	5	1	2	1	1	0	2
T. HeinemanC	.337	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. Wagner3B	.250	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.217	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	11	15	11	3	2	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.265

.282

.289

.280

.273

.284

.324

.337

.250

.217

.083

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
E. LauerSP	8.0	5	1	1	0	6	97
C. GreenRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	20
Team	9.0	9	4	4	0	7	117

Player

E. LauerSP

8.0

C. GreenRP

1.0

Team

9.0

117

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. Torres2B	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.246	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.239	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.279	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. VierlingCF	.207	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
W. PerezRF	.243	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.268	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. BaezSS	.271	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. SweeneySS	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RogersC	.164	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	4	9	4	2	0	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. OlsonSP	5.2	6	5	5	2	4	95
D. EnnsRP	1.1	4	4	4	0	1	30
G. HartliebRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	24
J. RogersC	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	17
Team	9.0	15	11	11	2	5	166

Team

TOR

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.