Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream
CHI
5-12
ATL
12-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hicago Sky visit Atlanta Dream Saturday at 9/19 - 7:00 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
42
FG %
44
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
ATL82@CHI75CHI@ATLupcomingCHI@ATLtodayScouting report
CHI @ ATL
Tale of the tape
5-12
Record
12-5
#6
Conf rank
#1
-4.7
Pt diff
+6.1
W1
Streak
L1
2-8
Last 10
7-3
72.1
Sched ahead
52.1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.9± 8.9medium
- Allisha GrayATL17.5± 6.6medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.1medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.2± 4.8medium
- Azura StevensCHI6.9± 4.7low
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL7.2± 3.9medium
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.2± 2.6medium
- Natasha CloudCHI3.8± 2.0medium
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI2.0± 1.9medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.1medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.5± 2.0medium
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.8± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
ATL
42.0%
FG%
44.9
▶44.3%
30.4%
3PT %
33.4
▶33.3%
83.5
PPG
86.3
▶89.0
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.2
12.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4