Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5LA

11-17

106101

POR

11-19

WNBASun, Aug 2FinalSeriesLA leads series 2-0VegasPOR -1.5

LA · top performer

Dearica Hamby

F · #5

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Bridget Carleton

F · #6

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 32pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:54

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	30	22	8-18	3-7	3-4	+8	10	2
D. HambyF · #5	29	23	11-15	—	1-2	-3	10	4
E. WheelerG · #17	28	12	3-6	2-3	4-4	+11	0	8
A. AtkinsG · #7	31	12	4-9	4-7	—	+9	3	6
R. BurrellG · #12	30	12	3-8	2-3	4-4	-2	2	4
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	21	7	3-9	1-3	—	+5	5	2
JihyunF · #6	18	12	5-7	2-3	—	-1	2	4
C. GrayG · #2	14	6	2-3	2-3	—	-2	0	3
Team		106	39-75	16-29	12-14		32	33
DNP: E. Cannon, K. Williams, K. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	30	24	8-15	7-13	1-2	+5	11	1
E. EngstlerF · #21	22	7	3-11	1-6	—	-6	3	2
N. PuochF · #13	21	7	1-1	1-1	4-4	+1	4	0
M. DiLeoC · #17	29	19	7-15	2-7	3-3	+3	8	3
C. LeiteG · #0	27	21	7-15	2-2	5-5	+2	1	8
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	18	3	1-4	1-2	—	+1	0	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	11	2	1-2	—	—	-8	1	1
K. SamuelsonG · #44	19	2	1-3	0-1	—	-6	2	1
H. WinterburnG · #77	10	4	1-4	0-3	2-2	-10	2	2
T. OblakG · #7	13	12	5-7	1-2	1-2	-7	2	3
Team		101	35-77	15-37	16-18		34	21
DNP: L. Geiselsoder, S. Barker

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

39-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-77

FG %

16-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-37

12-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LA leads series 2-0

Jun 7

POR72@

LA89

Aug 2

LA106@

POR101today

Sep 20

POR@

LAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

186.5

High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-11052%

POR-11052%

215· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -1.5↗SpreadBet POR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

186.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat POR 106-101. D. Hamby led with 23 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. Cameron Brink's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 25 REB · 24 AST

GS 76

Bench(3)

25 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

PORstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 7 REB · 7 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR3rd Quarter · 3:54 · 58-63

+28pp→ 68% WP

Serah Williams · enters the game for Megan DiLeo

POR3rd Quarter · 3:54 · 58-63

+32pp→ 68% WP

Cameron Brink · enters the game for Dearica Hamby

LA4th Quarter · 52.4 · 98-96

+23pp→ 70% WP

Megan DiLeo · misses 23-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	22	21	29	34	106
POR	29	20	23	29	101

Period scoring

LA won 3 · POR won 1

Atkins 9

Leite 7

Hamby 8

DiLeo 8

Ogwumike 11

DiLeo 6

Ogwumike 9

Carleton 11

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

52%

39-75

45%

35-77

55%

16-29

3PT

41%

15-37

86%

12-14

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 421 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 106·POR 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 106·POR 101
Q4·2.2
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 106·POR 101
Q4·4.8
Emily Engstler misses 25-foot three point jumper
LA 106·POR 101
−3pp
Q4·13.2
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 106·POR 101
+1pp
Q4·13.2
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 105·POR 101
−0.6pp
Q4·13.2
Karlie Samuelson personal foul
LA 104·POR 101
−5pp
Q4·16.8
Sparks Reset Timeout
LA 104·POR 101
Q4·16.8
Bridget Carleton out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
LA 104·POR 101
−9pp
Q4·19.1
Fire Full timeout
LA 104·POR 101
Q4·19.1
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 104·POR 101
+7pp
Q4·19.1
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 103·POR 101
−2pp
Q4·19.1
Emily Engstler personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 102·POR 101
−17pp
Q4·20.9
Bridget Carleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 102·POR 101
+19pp
Q4·22.9
Fire Reset Timeout
LA 102·POR 98
Q4·22.9
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 102·POR 98
+5pp
Q4·22.9
Nneka Ogwumike makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 101·POR 98
−1pp
Q4·22.9
Karlie Samuelson personal foul
LA 100·POR 98
−0.8pp
Q4·26.5
Emily Engstler personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 100·POR 98
−15pp
Q4·27.6
Sparks Full timeout
LA 100·POR 98
Q4·27.6
Carla Leite makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LA 100·POR 98
−11pp
Q4·27.6
Carla Leite makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 100·POR 97
+2pp
Q4·27.6
Dearica Hamby personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 100·POR 96
+15pp
Q4·30.1
Fire Full timeout
LA 100·POR 96
Q4·30.1
Dearica Hamby makes 3-foot layup (Nneka Ogwumike assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 100·POR 96
−10pp
Q4·50.2
Ariel Atkins defensive rebound
LA 98·POR 96
−3pp
Q4·52.4
Megan DiLeo misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 98·POR 96
−23pp
Q4·1:05
Erica Wheeler personal foulBIG MOMENT
LA 98·POR 96
+20pp
Q4·1:09
Fire offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LA 98·POR 96
+9pp
Q4·1:12
Megan DiLeo misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LA 98·POR 96
−9pp

Betting line

POR -1.5·O/U 186.5·LA -110/POR -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Portland Fire and beat them, 106–101.

LA +1.5 cashed (POR lost outright). Total cleared the 186.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

62.7%

55.2%

TOV%

ball control

13.8%

14.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

28.1%

32.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

16.0%

20.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687
Nyadiew PuochPOR · F
ORB%.07482

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
58.9%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.6%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.7%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.26

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.2pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

+180DraftKings

edge +14.2pp · implied 33.7%

POR

no live price

Book	LA	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	+180★	-238	+14.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Nneka OgwumikeLA
18.5± 4.6high
Carla LeitePOR
15.9± 4.1high
Dearica HambyLA
15.7± 4.1high

Rebounds

Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.2± 3.1high
Dearica HambyLA
6.8± 2.7high
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.5± 3.4high

Assists

Carla LeitePOR
6.7± 3.1high
Erica WheelerLA
6.1± 2.2high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
3.7± 2.2high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.5± 0.8high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.1± 0.7high
Dearica HambyLA
0.7± 0.9high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.8± 0.9high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Maj Forsberg

Referee

Blanca Burns

Referee

Ashley Gloss

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop