Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+20DAL

CON

7-23

6383

DAL

19-11

WNBASun, Aug 2FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -11.5

CON · top performer

Diamond Miller

F · #1

15.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ DAL

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. MillerF · #1	30	22	8-15	4-8	2-4	-14	4	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	27	8	3-6	—	2-4	-19	11	2
K. BurkeG · #25	30	14	5-11	2-4	2-2	-17	7	1
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	25	0	0-3	0-2	—	-9	0	2
L. LacanG · #47	25	7	3-10	1-3	—	-18	1	2
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	14	2	1-4	—	—	-3	3	3
N. AnglomaF · #33	10	5	2-5	1-1	—	0	1	0
R. MarshallC · #13	4	0	0-2	—	—	-7	1	0
S. RiversG · #22	17	1	0-6	0-2	1-2	-13	2	2
G. KneepkensG · #5	7	4	1-3	1-2	1-1	-3	1	0
A. JacksonG · #3	11	0	0-2	0-1	—	+3	0	1
Team		63	23-67	9-23	8-13		31	14

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	23	15	7-12	—	1-1	+17	9	2
A. SmithF · #8	14	3	1-6	1-2	—	+3	3	1
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	23	15	7-9	1-3	—	+14	5	5
P. BueckersG · #5	25	6	3-9	0-1	—	+21	3	4
A. FuddG · #35	24	12	4-8	4-5	—	+22	2	1
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	17	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	+8	3	1
M. SiegristF · #20	17	4	2-4	0-2	—	-3	2	2
A. KuierF · #34	9	6	3-4	—	—	+13	2	0
L. YueruC · #28	9	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-6	1	0
O. SimsG · #1	20	9	2-5	0-1	5-5	+14	2	2
S. SuttonG · #0	7	0	—	—	—	-7	4	2
A. JamesG · #10	12	6	2-7	0-1	2-2	+4	2	2
Team		83	33-69	7-18	10-12		38	22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

23-67

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-69

FG %

9-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-18

8-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jul 3

DAL86@

CON83

Aug 2

CON63@

DAL83today

Aug 31

CON@

DALupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

173.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+42519%

DAL-57585%

25· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -11.5↗SpreadBet DAL -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

+1.0 since open

Total

173.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat CON 83-63. A. Ogunbowale led with 15 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 24-8 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 23 REB · 8 AST

GS 30

Bench(6)

12 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 2

DALstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Bench(7)

32 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 26

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	16	21	8	18	63
DAL	22	26	24	11	83

Period scoring

CON won 1 · DAL won 3

Miller 5

Shepard 6

Miller 9

Fudd 8

Burke 5

Ogunbowale 6

Miller 8

Yueru 6

CON

DAL

Shooting comparison

CON

DAL

34%

23-67

48%

33-69

39%

9-23

3PT

39%

7-18

62%

8-13

83%

10-12

Play-by-play · 376 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·1.3
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·3.4
Gianna Kneepkens misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·20.4
Maddy Siegrist 3 second turnover
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·28.6
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·30.5
Gianna Kneepkens misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·43.2
Maddy Siegrist offensive foul turnover
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·43.2
Maddy Siegrist offensive foul
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·1:00
Nell Angloma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Raegan Beers assists)
·
CON 63·DAL 83
Q4·1:18
Li Yueru makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 60·DAL 83
Q4·1:18
Wings offensive team rebound
CON 60·DAL 82
Q4·1:18
Li Yueru misses free throw 1 of 2
CON 60·DAL 82
Q4·1:18
Raegan Beers personal foul
CON 60·DAL 82
Q4·1:31
Gianna Kneepkens makes free throw 1 of 1
CON 60·DAL 82
Q4·1:31
(01:31) [Sun] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CON 59·DAL 82
Q4·1:31
Alysha Clark shooting foul
CON 59·DAL 82
Q4·1:31
Gianna Kneepkens makes 26-foot three point jumper (Raegan Beers assists)
·
CON 59·DAL 82
Q4·1:41
Sun defensive team rebound
CON 56·DAL 82
Q4·1:43
Alysha Clark misses free throw 2 of 2
CON 56·DAL 82
Q4·1:43
Alysha Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 56·DAL 82
Q4·1:43
Gianna Kneepkens enters the game for Diamond Miller
·
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·1:43
Sun Full timeout
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·1:43
Charlisse Leger-Walker shooting foul
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·1:50
Maddy Siegrist defensive rebound
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·1:54
Diamond Miller misses driving floating jump shot
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·2:19
Diamond Miller defensive rebound
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·2:22
Odyssey Sims misses running pullup jump shot
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·2:26
Sug Sutton defensive rebound
CON 56·DAL 81
Q4·2:28
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
CON 56·DAL 81

Betting line

DAL -11.5·O/U 173.5·CON +425/DAL -575

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings held off Connecticut Sun, 83–63. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DAL -11.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 173.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

DAL

eFG%

shooting

41.0%

52.9%

TOV%

ball control

17.1%

15.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

22.5%

24.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

11.9%

14.5%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Azzi FuddDAL · G
eFG%.58680
Arike OgunbowaleDAL · G
USG%.24775
Kennedy BurkeCON · G
ORB%.05871

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

85.8%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
84.4%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
83.7%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
85.6%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.48

CLV pp

Open price

-600

Close price

-625

Open no-vig

82.2%

Close no-vig

82.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.6pp

best edge · CON · DraftKings

CON

★ best

+1100DraftKings

edge +5.6pp · implied 8.9%

DAL

no live price

Book	CON	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+1100★	-575	+5.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
19.6± 7.7high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
17.2± 6.5high
Jessica ShepardDAL
14.6± 5.1high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.6± 4.2high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.8± 3.3high
Brittney GrinerCON
5.7± 3.7medium

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
5.9± 2.3high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.8± 2.9high
Leila LacanCON
4.4± 1.7high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.8± 1.4high
Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.1± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Roy Gulbeyan

Referee

Agon Abazi

Referee

Kelly Broomfield

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Team pages

Connecticut SunDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop