Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries
ATL
9-4
GS
9-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
tlanta Dream visit Golden State Valkyries Wednesday at 6/24 - 10:00 PM EDT. ATL is 5-3 in their last 8. GS arrives on a 3-game win streak (5-3 in their last 8).
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 6/24
ATL@GStodayATL@GSupcomingGS@ATLupcomingScouting report
ATL @ GS
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
ATL -4.5
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
ATL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
9-4
Record
9-5
#2
Conf rank
#3
+6.4
Pt diff
+6.3
W1
Streak
W3
7-3
Last 10
6-4
67.3
Power score
62.8
#5
Power rank
#6
58.7
Sched ahead
75.8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
ATL
Away
Stat
GS
Home
43
FG %
41
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.7± 11.1low
- Allisha GrayATL17.8± 5.6medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS15.9± 10.3low
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.9± 4.2medium
- Naz HillmonATL5.2± 2.9low
- Kayla ThorntonGS4.9± 2.9medium
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL6.9± 3.4medium
- Veronica BurtonGS5.3± 2.8medium
- Rhyne HowardATL3.1± 3.2low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6medium
- Veronica BurtonGS1.0± 1.8medium
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL3.0± 2.5low
- Jordin CanadaATL1.7± 1.6medium
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.7± 1.6low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
ATL
league avg
GS
43.5%
FG%
44.4
40.6%
32.9%
3PT %
33.1
▶35.9%
87.1
PPG
85.3
84.6
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.9
12.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶9.8