Recent form
2-8
SEA -7.1 vs POR -7.6 margin
SEA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Seattle Storm at Portland Fire
SEA
SEA
3-12
PregameWed, 10:00 PM EDT
POR
POR
7-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
eattle Storm visit Portland Fire Wednesday at 6/17 - 10:00 PM EDT.
Vegas opened POR as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 161.5. POR's moneyline implies a 60% break-even, SEA the inverse.
For bettors: the POR side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 161.5 total reads near the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 13 over 6.4h39m ago
Updated 0s ago
Season series
Series starts 6/17
Jun 18SEA@PORtoday
SEA@PORtodayJul 5POR@SEAupcoming
POR@SEAupcomingAug 9SEA@PORupcoming
SEA@PORupcomingAug 15POR@SEAupcoming
POR@SEAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
161.5
Standard · -3.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SEA+12445%POR-14860%13· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
161.5
-2.0 since open
Scouting report
SEA @ POR
StorylineSEA dropped 8 straight.
Rest going in
SEAUnknown
—
PORStandard
2 days
last game Jun 15
Model edge vs market
Lean onlySpread
Market
POR -2.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Total
Market
161.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
POR -148
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
SEAmetricPOR
3-12
Record
7-9
#8
Conf rank
#6
-6.7
Pt diff
-6.5
L8
Streak
L1
2-8
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
POR
Home
41
FG %
45
Betting line
POR -2.5·O/U 161.5·SEA +124/POR -148
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
POR vs SEA.
POR is 4-6 recently; SEA is 2-8.
71.2%
model · POR win prob
Recent form
- POR4–6-7.6
- SEA2–8-7.1
Situational
- POR2d rest
- SEA5d rest
- -3.0d differential
SEA has 3 more rest days. POR has 1 straight road games; SEA has 0.
Model angle
+14.0ppon POR
POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Venue split+1.5pp
- ▼Rest advantage-0.9pp
Line move
open -135→-148toward POR
The market has moved 2.2pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
71.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
72.9%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
72.6%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
73.2%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like POR.
POR's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.
+14.0
pp edge · POR
+2.06
CLV pp · steam
5.0u · large
on POR
69.2%
±8.8pp band
5u large — +9.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+12.0pp
-2.0pp post-cal
Kelly
23.6%
5.0% sized
Decimal
1.68
+9.5pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 14.0pp · POR over SEA
- ▲+1.5ppModel confidence90% conf
POR clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▲+1.5ppVenue split68% conf
POR's venue form is 38.9pp stronger in the recent sample.
- ▼-0.9ppRest advantage65% conf
SEA has the rest edge entering this game.
- ▲+0.8ppLine steam72% conf
The market moved 2.1pp toward POR since open.
Open price
-135
Close price
-148
Open no-vig
55.1%
Close no-vig
57.2%
Market steamed in our direction
Player projections
POR vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Natisha HiedemanSEA15.1± 6.5medium
- Carla LeitePOR13.3± 5.4medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.1± 8.1low
Rebounds
- Dominique MalongaSEA6.7± 3.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA5.5± 3.8medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.1± 3.4medium
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR5.4± 3.6medium
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.4± 2.0medium
- Teja OblakPOR3.9± 3.5low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.0± 1.2medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA0.9± 1.4low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA0.8± 1.2medium
Steals
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.7medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.1medium
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
POR
40.7%
FG%
44.3
▶44.9%
33.1%
3PT %
33.0
▶33.7%
76.4
PPG
85.2
▶81.5
17.7
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.8
14.2
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.9