Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+11GS

DAL

9-6

8091

10-5

WNBAWed, Jun 17FinalSeriesGS leads series 1-0VegasGS -3.5

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Gabby Williams

F · #1

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:37

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	33	14	7-13	—	—	-9	10	4
A. KuierF · #34	24	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	-16	2	1
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	28	21	7-11	3-3	4-4	-13	2	3
P. BueckersG · #5	36	15	5-13	1-5	4-4	-8	3	8
A. FuddG · #35	37	10	4-13	2-5	0-2	-14	1	1
Bench
A. SmithF · #8	16	5	2-4	1-3	—	+5	3	0
M. SiegristF · #20	7	1	—	—	1-2	-2	2	0
S. SuttonG · #0	13	9	3-4	2-2	1-2	-2	0	2
A. JamesG · #10	6	2	1-3	0-2	—	+4	2	0
Team		80	30-64	9-22	11-16		25	19
DNP: A. Clark, L. Yueru

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	29	8	2-7	2-5	2-2	+19	11	2
G. WilliamsF · #1	29	25	7-16	2-6	9-12	+25	3	4
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	9	2	1-3	0-1	—	-11	1	2
K. StokesC · #41	21	2	1-2	—	—	+2	7	0
V. BurtonG · #22	33	11	3-8	2-3	3-3	+1	8	5
Bench
L. AmihereF · #3	3	0	—	—	—	-7	0	1
J. SalaunF · #13	20	12	3-7	2-4	4-5	-2	4	1
T. HayesG · #15	10	10	3-4	2-2	2-2	-2	0	1
K. CharlesG · #6	22	6	2-6	1-2	1-2	+4	5	2
K. ChenG · #2	25	15	7-10	1-2	0-1	+26	2	2
Team		91	29-63	12-25	21-27		41	20
DNP: N. Fingall, J. Jocyte

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

30-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-63

FG %

9-22

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-25

11-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 1-0

Jun 18

DAL80@

GS91today

Aug 8

GS@

DALupcoming

Aug 18

DAL@

GSupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

164.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+13043%

GS-15561%

13· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -3.5↗SpreadBet GS -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

164.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat DAL 91-80. G. Williams paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 27-7 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 18 REB · 17 AST

GS 50

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST

GS 13

GSstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

48 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL2nd Quarter · 9:38 · 26-18

+9pp→ 69% WP

Awak Kuier · enters the game for Alanna Smith

GS3rd Quarter · 10:00 · 33-44

+11pp→ 89% WP

Gabby Williams · enters the game for Kaitlyn Chen

DAL3rd Quarter · 8:37 · 41-44

+12pp→ 33% WP

Gabby Williams · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	26	7	29	18	80
GS	17	27	20	27	91

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · GS won 2

Shepard 10

Salaun 6

Ogunbowale 3

Chen 12

Ogunbowale 8

Williams 11

Ogunbowale 7

Williams 8

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

47%

30-64

46%

29-63

41%

9-22

3PT

48%

12-25

69%

11-16

78%

21-27

Play-by-play · 368 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 80·GS 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 80·GS 91
Q4·19.0
Veronica Burton defensive rebound
DAL 80·GS 91
Q4·21.3
Jessica Shepard misses 11-foot step back jumpshot
DAL 80·GS 91
Q4·34.9
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 80·GS 91
Q4·34.9
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 80·GS 90
Q4·34.9
Jessica Shepard personal take foul
DAL 80·GS 89
Q4·37.5
Gabby Williams defensive rebound
DAL 80·GS 89
Q4·39.0
Paige Bueckers misses 27-foot three point jumper
DAL 80·GS 89
Q4·42.4
Wings Full timeout
DAL 80·GS 89
Q4·42.4
Jessica Shepard defensive rebound
DAL 80·GS 89
Q4·42.8
Gabby Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 80·GS 89
−0.5pp
Q4·42.8
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 80·GS 89
Q4·42.8
Paige Bueckers personal take foul
DAL 80·GS 88
+0.5pp
Q4·48.6
Kaitlyn Chen defensive rebound
DAL 80·GS 88
Q4·50.9
Azzi Fudd misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 80·GS 88
+0.9pp
Q4·56.9
Wings timeout
DAL 80·GS 88
Q4·56.9
Kaila Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 80·GS 88
Q4·56.9
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
DAL 80·GS 87
Q4·56.9
Kaila Charles misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 80·GS 87
−0.5pp
Q4·56.9
Paige Bueckers personal take foul
DAL 80·GS 87
+2pp
Q4·58.1
(00:58.1) [Wings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DAL 80·GS 87
−1pp
Q4·58.1
Golden State Valkyries Full timeout
DAL 80·GS 87
Q4·1:04
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 80·GS 87
+2pp
Q4·1:04
Paige Bueckers makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 79·GS 87
Q4·1:04
Kaila Charles shooting foul
DAL 78·GS 87
−2pp
Q4·1:14
Wings Full timeout
DAL 78·GS 87
Q4·1:15
Kaila Charles makes layup
DAL 78·GS 87
Q4·1:17
Kaila Charles offensive rebound
DAL 78·GS 85
+1pp
Q4·1:19
Gabby Williams misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 78·GS 85
−0.6pp

Betting line

GS -3.5·O/U 164.5·DAL +130/GS -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Dallas Wings, 91–80.

GS -3.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 164.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

eFG%

shooting

53.9%

55.6%

TOV%

ball control

10.1%

14.8%

OREB%

offensive glass

5.9%

28.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

17.2%

33.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Gabby WilliamsGS · F
USG%.27488

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.0%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
70.2%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
68.9%
P(GS win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
66.2%
P(GS win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.96

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-125

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.1pp

best edge · DAL · DraftKings

DAL

★ best

+360DraftKings

edge +10.1pp · implied 20.5%

no live price

Book	DAL	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+360★	-540	+10.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
18.0± 8.5medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
17.2± 8.3medium
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
15.3± 10.7medium

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.6± 4.5medium
Kayla ThorntonGS
5.5± 3.3medium
Kiah StokesGS
5.1± 1.7medium

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.4± 3.9medium
Veronica BurtonGS
5.3± 2.7medium
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.2± 3.4medium

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.6± 1.6medium
Azzi FuddDAL
1.3± 1.6medium
Awak KuierDAL
1.1± 1.1low

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.6± 1.6medium
Gabby WilliamsGS
1.5± 0.8medium
Aziaha JamesDAL
1.2± 1.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

DAL

league avg

45.8%

FG%

◀

44.6

40.6%

34.1%

3PT %

33.4

▶

36.3%

87.6

PPG

◀

85.7

84.4

23.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.9

10.3

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

10.2

Data via ESPN · wehoop