Recent form
9-1
MIN +18.5 vs LA +1.0 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Minnesota Lynx at Los Angeles Sparks
MIN
MIN
11-3
PregameWed, 10:00 PM EDT
LA
LA
7-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Los Angeles Sparks Wednesday at 6/17 - 10:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8. LA is 4-4 in their last 8.
Vegas opened MIN as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 176.5. LA's moneyline implies a 24% break-even, MIN the inverse.
For bettors: the MIN side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 176.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 156 over 6.5hjust now
Updated 0s ago
Season series
Series starts 6/17
Jun 18MIN@LAtoday
MIN@LAtodayJul 15LA@MINupcoming
LA@MINupcomingAug 7LA@MINupcoming
LA@MINupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -8.5
Between 7 and 10
4.0pt· 6.5h
Total
176.5
High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.5h
Moneyline
MIN-41080%LA+32024%156· 6.5h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 45 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
+5.0 since open
Total
176.5
-1.0 since open
Scouting report
MIN @ LA
Rest going in
MINStandard
2 days
last game Jun 15
LAStandard
2 days
last game Jun 15
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeSpread
Market
MIN -8.5
Model
MIN -43.3
Edge
+34.8 pts
Total
Market
176.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
MIN -410
Model
MIN
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
MINmetricLA
11-3
Record
7-7
#1
Conf rank
#5
+13.2
Pt diff
-2.3
W1
Streak
L1
9-1
Last 10
6-4
92.5
Power score
49.2
#2
Power rank
#8
50.8
Sched ahead
94.3
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
LA
Home
50
FG %
46
Betting line
MIN -8.5·O/U 176.5·MIN -410/LA +320
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
LA vs MIN.
LA is 6-4 recently; MIN is 9-1.
24.7%
model · LA win prob
Recent form
- LA6–4+1.0
- MIN9–1+18.5
Situational
- LA2d rest
- MIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. LA has 3 straight road games; MIN has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Head-to-head · 0-4 · last 4
LA is 0-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2025-05-18MIN @ LA89–75
- 2025-06-14LA @ MIN78–101
- 2025-06-22LA @ MIN66–82
- 2025-07-10MIN @ LA91–82
Line move
open +130→+320toward MIN
The market has moved 19.7pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
24.5%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
41.8%
P(LA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
40.9%
P(LA win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.4%
P(LA win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.62 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LA vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA24.4± 14.0low
- Olivia MilesMIN18.2± 6.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.8± 6.7medium
Rebounds
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.3± 5.7low
- Dearica HambyLA7.9± 3.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.2± 3.6medium
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.4± 3.8low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.7± 2.7medium
- Erica WheelerLA4.6± 2.5medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.3± 1.4medium
- Rae BurrellLA0.9± 1.4medium
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 1.8medium
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.8± 1.9low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.6± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
LA
50.8%
FG%
◀
44.3
46.0%
39.4%
3PT %
◀
33.0
31.5%
92.6
PPG
◀
85.2
88.1
22.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
19.7
13.7
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
14.7