Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5LA

6-6

8883

SEA

3-11

WNBAWed, Jun 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLA -7.5

LA · top performer

Nneka Ogwumike

F · #30

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SEA · top performer

Flau'jae Johnson

G · #4

15.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLA ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 4:13

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. OgwumikeF · #30	33	24	9-18	1-5	5-5	-7	9	1
D. HambyF · #5	28	6	3-8	0-1	—	+7	10	0
E. WheelerG · #17	26	10	3-9	2-7	2-2	-5	1	1
K. PlumG · #10	33	19	6-17	2-9	5-8	+4	1	11
A. AtkinsG · #7	25	7	2-8	1-4	2-2	+4	6	3
Bench
C. BrinkF · #22	18	15	5-7	2-4	3-3	+10	6	1
JihyunF · #6	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
R. BurrellG · #12	27	4	1-4	1-3	1-2	+4	2	1
C. GrayG · #2	7	3	0-3	0-1	3-3	+7	3	2
Team		88	29-75	9-35	21-25		38	20
DNP: E. Cannon, S. Feagin, T. Latson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	26	11	5-10	1-4	—	+3	4	4
D. MalongaC · #14	24	15	6-11	1-2	2-2	+5	7	2
A. FamC · #11	30	12	4-6	2-4	2-2	-1	6	4
N. HiedemanG · #2	29	16	6-12	2-7	2-2	+10	1	5
F. JohnsonG · #4	30	14	4-11	1-4	5-6	0	12	6
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	9	3	1-3	1-3	—	-13	0	0
M. HolmesF · #54	7	0	—	—	—	-9	1	0
S. DolsonC · #31	19	2	1-4	0-2	—	-5	2	2
Z. CookeG · #7	10	6	2-4	1-2	1-1	-5	1	0
J. MelbourneG · #5	16	4	1-3	0-1	2-3	-10	1	3
Team		83	30-64	9-29	14-16		35	26
DNP: E. Magbegor, T. Thierry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

29-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-64

FG %

9-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-29

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 11

LA88@

SEA83today

Jul 7

SEA82@

LA64

Aug 30

LA@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-30575%

SEA+24529%

15· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -7.5↗SpreadBet LA -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

170.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat SEA 88-83. N. Ogwumike led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SEA vs LA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LAstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 54

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

SEAstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 30 REB · 21 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

15 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LA3rd Quarter · 44.9 · 63-67

+13pp→ 44% WP

Cameron Brink · makes free throw 1 of 2

SEA4th Quarter · 7:07 · 72-70

+12pp→ 44% WP

Cameron Brink · shooting foul

LA4th Quarter · 4:13 · 77-73

+15pp→ 80% WP

Flau'jae Johnson · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LA	22	18	26	22	88
SEA	17	23	27	16	83

Period scoring

LA won 2 · SEA won 2

Plum 8

Malonga 5

Wheeler 5

Johnson 9

Ogwumike 11

Hiedeman 8

Ogwumike 7

Hiedeman 6

SEA

Shooting comparison

SEA

39%

29-75

47%

30-64

26%

9-35

3PT

31%

9-29

84%

21-25

88%

14-16

Play-by-play · 420 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LA 88·SEA 83
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LA 88·SEA 83
Q4·1.6
Storm timeout
LA 88·SEA 83
Q4·1.6
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 2 of 2
LA 88·SEA 83
Q4·1.6
Erica Wheeler makes free throw 1 of 2
LA 87·SEA 83
Q4·1.6
Natisha Hiedeman personal foul
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·2.1
Jordan Horston personal foul
LA 86·SEA 83
−1pp
Q4·2.6
Awa Fam enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·2.6
Jordan Horston enters the game for Stefanie Dolson
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·2.6
Dominique Malonga enters the game for Zia Cooke
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·2.6
Sparks timeout
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·2.6
Sparks defensive team rebound
LA 86·SEA 83
−4pp
Q4·6.3
Natisha Hiedeman misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 86·SEA 83
−11pp
Q4·12.1
Dearica Hamby enters the game for Ariel Atkins
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·12.1
Jade Melbourne enters the game for Jordan Horston
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·12.1
Stefanie Dolson enters the game for Dominique Malonga
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·12.1
Zia Cooke enters the game for Awa Fam
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·12.1
Storm Full timeout
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·12.1
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
LA 86·SEA 83
+2pp
Q4·12.3
Kelsey Plum misses 22-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LA 86·SEA 83
−10pp
Q4·20.9
Ariel Atkins enters the game for Dearica Hamby
·
LA 86·SEA 83
Q4·20.9
Awa Fam kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
LA 86·SEA 83
+8pp
Q4·28.9
Dearica Hamby defensive rebound
LA 86·SEA 83
−4pp
Q4·28.9
(00:28.9) [Sparks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Sparks] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
LA 86·SEA 83
−14pp
Q4·29.9
Jordan Horston misses two point shot
LA 86·SEA 83
+4pp
Q4·36.9
Dominique Malonga defensive rebound
LA 86·SEA 83
+3pp
Q4·39.2
Kelsey Plum misses 8-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LA 86·SEA 83
+8pp
Q4·53.6
Sparks Full timeout
LA 86·SEA 83
−0.5pp
Q4·58.5
Jordan Horston makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Natisha Hiedeman assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LA 86·SEA 83
+6pp
Q4·1:09
Storm defensive team rebound
LA 86·SEA 81
+2pp

Betting line

LA -7.5·O/U 170.5·LA -305/SEA +245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

os Angeles Sparks went into Seattle Storm and beat them, 88–83.

SEA +7.5 cashed (LA won by 5). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

eFG%

shooting

44.7%

53.9%

TOV%

ball control

9.5%

17.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.2%

16.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

28.0%

21.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kelsey PlumLA · G
TS%.68699
Nneka OgwumikeLA · F
DRB%.25989
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Dearica HambyLA · F
ORB%.10687
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

24.1%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
39.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
35.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
34.7%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.79

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+180

Close price

+205

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

31.5%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.3pp

best edge · LA · DraftKings

★ best

-260DraftKings

edge +4.3pp · implied 68.1%

SEA

no live price

Book	LA	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	-260★	+195	+4.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs LA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey PlumLA
23.3± 15.0low
Nneka OgwumikeLA
17.9± 4.8high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
17.3± 8.6high

Rebounds

Dominique MalongaSEA
10.0± 3.1high
Nneka OgwumikeLA
9.3± 3.1high
Awa FamSEA
6.8± 2.7high

Assists

Kelsey PlumLA
6.6± 3.5low
Erica WheelerLA
5.9± 2.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Cameron BrinkLA
1.4± 0.8high
Awa FamSEA
1.2± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Dearica HambyLA
1.8± 1.2high
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.6± 1.2high
Ariel AtkinsLA
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Los Angeles SparksSeattle Storm

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Sun102Tempo106Final/OT

Data via ESPN · wehoop