WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TOR

CON

2-12

102106

TOR

7-5

WNBAWed, Jun 10FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -8.5

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo held off Connecticut Sun, 106–102 in overtime. Decided by 4.

CON +8.5 cashed (TOR won by 4). Total cleared the 167.5 OVER by 40.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CON · top performer

Leila Lacan

G · #47

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brittney Sykes

G · #20

30.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	30	24	8-9	1-1	7-12	-3	4	0
D. MillerF · #1	30	11	4-12	1-4	2-4	-2	4	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	29	9	2-2	—	5-6	-3	13	1
S. RiversG · #22	35	12	3-11	2-5	4-4	+4	7	7
L. LacanG · #47	32	24	9-16	4-8	2-4	-3	1	7
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	9	3	1-1	—	1-2	+3	4	1
N. AnglomaF · #33	11	4	2-5	—	0-1	-2	2	1
K. BurkeG · #25	29	11	3-12	1-6	4-4	-5	6	2
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	18	4	2-6	0-1	—	-9	1	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		102	34-74	9-25	25-37		42	21
DNP: A. Morrow, B. Griner

DNP: A. Morrow, B. Griner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	30	15	3-5	0-1	9-10	+6	5	3
L. JuskaiteF · #2	37	19	5-7	1-1	8-8	+16	6	2
B. SykesG · #20	41	38	11-20	3-6	13-13	+4	4	1
M. MabreyG · #3	34	21	8-20	4-12	1-2	+4	1	1
J. AllemandG · #22	36	6	3-5	0-1	—	+14	2	4
Bench
I. HarrisonF · #21	13	5	1-5	0-1	3-8	-3	3	2
M. CondeF · #10	15	0	0-2	—	—	-10	2	2
T. KeyF · #7	9	0	0-4	0-1	—	-9	3	1
K. NurseG · #11	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
T. PouyeG · #32	8	2	—	—	2-2	-1	2	2
Team		106	31-69	8-24	36-43		28	18
DNP: T. Fagbenle, K. Rice

DNP: T. Fagbenle, K. Rice

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Jun 10

CON102@

TOR106today

Jun 19

TOR@

CONupcoming

Sep 24

TOR@

CONupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+30025%

TOR-38079%

8· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -8.5↗SpreadBet TOR -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

167.5

+1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCON ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 31pp · OT · 2:10

CON

L. Lacan

Game leader · 32 min

24 PTS · 1 REB · 7 AST

TOR

B. Sykes

Game leader · 41 min30-point game

38 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

TOR beat CON 106-102. B. Sykes led the way with 38 points and 4 rebounds. CON outscored the other side 26-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

TORstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST

GS 81

Bench(5)

7 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 1:40 · 92-91

+25pp→ 57% WP

Nyara Sabally · makes free throw 1 of 2

TOR4th Quarter · 36.2 · 94-92

+29pp→ 53% WP

Leila Lacan · shooting foul

CONOT · 2:10 · 101-100

+31pp→ 75% WP

Kennedy Burke · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CON	31	26	22	17	6	102
TOR	30	16	26	24	10	106

Period scoring

CON won 2 · TOR won 3

Edwards 8

Sykes 11

Lacan 11

Sabally 6

Rivers 8

Sykes 9

Edwards 6

Sykes 9

Edwards 3

Mabrey 5

CON

TOR

Shooting comparison

CON

TOR

46%

34-74

45%

31-69

36%

9-25

3PT

33%

8-24

68%

25-37

84%

36-43

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·1.0
Gianna Kneepkens lost ball turnover (Brittney Sykes steals)
·
CON 102·TOR 106
+0.7pp
OT·3.3
Gianna Kneepkens vs. Brittney Sykes (Marina Mabrey gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CON 102·TOR 106
+6pp
OT·10.7
Gianna Kneepkens enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·10.7
Sun Full timeout
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·10.7
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 102·TOR 106
−3pp
OT·10.7
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 102·TOR 105
+0.9pp
OT·10.7
Saniya Rivers personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+10pp
OT·12.4
Tempo Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−9pp
OT·12.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+13pp
OT·17.2
Charlisse Leger-Walker bad pass turnover (Marina Mabrey steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 102·TOR 104
+14pp
OT·19.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−9pp
OT·20.5
Kennedy Burke misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+10pp
OT·22.5
Kennedy Burke offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−12pp
OT·24.5
Aaliyah Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+12pp
OT·24.5
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+16pp
OT·24.5
Aaliyah Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+5pp
OT·24.5
Nyara Sabally shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−16pp
OT·42.7
Brittney Sykes makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+9pp
OT·57.7
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
CON 102·TOR 102
+3pp
OT·1:00
Saniya Rivers misses 25-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 102
+8pp
OT·1:17
Marina Mabrey makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 102
+11pp
OT·1:36
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
CON 102·TOR 100
+3pp
OT·1:38
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 13-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
+17pp
OT·1:55
Nyara Sabally personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
−11pp
OT·1:55
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
CON 102·TOR 100
−3pp
OT·1:57
Nyara Sabally misses layupBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
−8pp
OT·2:10
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
+8pp
OT·2:10
Nyara Sabally enters the game for Maria Conde
·
CON 101·TOR 100

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

34-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-69

FG %

9-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-24

25-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

36-43

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

TOR -8.5·O/U 167.5·CON +300/TOR -380

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Laura JuskaiteTOR · F
TS%.60874

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

76.1%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
78.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
79.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
75.8%
P(TOR win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.37

CLV pp

Open price

-310

Close price

-305

Open no-vig

72.6%

Close no-vig

72.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+31.0pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

CON

no live price

TOR

★ best

+105DraftKings

edge +31.0pp · implied 45.9%

Book	CON	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-135	+105★	+31.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Brittney SykesTOR
19.5± 11.3medium
Marina MabreyTOR
17.8± 11.5low
Kiki RiceTOR
12.4± 7.6low

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowCON
10.2± 5.1medium
Nyara SaballyTOR
5.2± 2.2low
Brittney GrinerCON
4.7± 2.6low

Assists

Leila LacanCON
5.2± 3.0low
Marina MabreyTOR
3.7± 3.3low
Julie AllemandTOR
3.6± 2.0low

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.3± 1.6low
Nyara SaballyTOR
1.1± 1.0low
Saniya RiversCON
1.0± 0.9medium

Steals

Leila LacanCON
1.7± 1.6low
Julie AllemandTOR
1.7± 1.3low
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

CON

league avg

TOR

42.1%

FG%

44.3

▶

43.4%

26.3%

3PT %

33.0

▶

32.9%

77.9

PPG

85.2

▶

88.6

18.7

Assists / G

◀

18.0

18.5

14.3

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · wehoop