Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4TOR

CON

2-12

102106

TOR

7-5

WNBAWed, Jun 10FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasTOR -8.5

CON · top performer

Leila Lacan

G · #47

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brittney Sykes

G · #20

30.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCON ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 31pp · OT · 2:10

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. EdwardsF · #8	30	24	8-9	1-1	7-12	-3	4	0
D. MillerF · #1	30	11	4-12	1-4	2-4	-2	4	1
O. Nelson-OdodaC · #10	29	9	2-2	—	5-6	-3	13	1
S. RiversG · #22	35	12	3-11	2-5	4-4	+4	7	7
L. LacanG · #47	32	24	9-16	4-8	2-4	-3	1	7
Bench
R. BeersF · #15	9	3	1-1	—	1-2	+3	4	1
N. AnglomaF · #33	11	4	2-5	—	0-1	-2	2	1
K. BurkeG · #25	29	11	3-12	1-6	4-4	-5	6	2
C. Leger-WalkerG · #4	18	4	2-6	0-1	—	-9	1	1
G. KneepkensG · #5	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		102	34-74	9-25	25-37		42	21
DNP: A. Morrow, B. Griner

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	30	15	3-5	0-1	9-10	+6	5	3
L. JuskaiteF · #2	37	19	5-7	1-1	8-8	+16	6	2
B. SykesG · #20	41	38	11-20	3-6	13-13	+4	4	1
M. MabreyG · #3	34	21	8-20	4-12	1-2	+4	1	1
J. AllemandG · #22	36	6	3-5	0-1	—	+14	2	4
Bench
I. HarrisonF · #21	13	5	1-5	0-1	3-8	-3	3	2
M. CondeF · #10	15	0	0-2	—	—	-10	2	2
T. KeyF · #7	9	0	0-4	0-1	—	-9	3	1
K. NurseG · #11	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
T. PouyeG · #32	8	2	—	—	2-2	-1	2	2
Team		106	31-69	8-24	36-43		28	18
DNP: T. Fagbenle, K. Rice

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CON

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

34-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-69

FG %

9-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-24

25-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

36-43

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

Jun 10

CON102@

TOR106today

Jun 19

TOR101@

CON97

Sep 24

TOR@

CONupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

167.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CON+30025%

TOR-38079%

8· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -8.5↗SpreadBet TOR -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

167.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CON 106-102. B. Sykes led the way with 38 points and 4 rebounds. CON outscored the other side 26-16 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CON

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CONstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 13

TORstarters 93% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST

GS 81

Bench(5)

7 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 1:40 · 92-91

+25pp→ 57% WP

Nyara Sabally · makes free throw 1 of 2

TOR4th Quarter · 36.2 · 94-92

+29pp→ 53% WP

Leila Lacan · shooting foul

CONOT · 2:10 · 101-100

+31pp→ 75% WP

Kennedy Burke · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CON	31	26	22	17	6	102
TOR	30	16	26	24	10	106

Period scoring

CON won 2 · TOR won 3

Edwards 8

Sykes 11

Lacan 11

Sabally 6

Rivers 8

Sykes 9

Edwards 6

Sykes 9

Edwards 3

Mabrey 5

CON

TOR

Shooting comparison

CON

TOR

46%

34-74

45%

31-69

36%

9-25

3PT

33%

8-24

68%

25-37

84%

36-43

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·1.0
Gianna Kneepkens lost ball turnover (Brittney Sykes steals)
·
CON 102·TOR 106
+0.7pp
OT·3.3
Gianna Kneepkens vs. Brittney Sykes (Marina Mabrey gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CON 102·TOR 106
+6pp
OT·10.7
Gianna Kneepkens enters the game for Saniya Rivers
·
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·10.7
Sun Full timeout
CON 102·TOR 106
OT·10.7
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
CON 102·TOR 106
−3pp
OT·10.7
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 1 of 2
CON 102·TOR 105
+0.9pp
OT·10.7
Saniya Rivers personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+10pp
OT·12.4
Tempo Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−9pp
OT·12.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+13pp
OT·17.2
Charlisse Leger-Walker bad pass turnover (Marina Mabrey steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CON 102·TOR 104
+14pp
OT·19.4
Charlisse Leger-Walker offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−9pp
OT·20.5
Kennedy Burke misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+10pp
OT·22.5
Kennedy Burke offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−12pp
OT·24.5
Aaliyah Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+12pp
OT·24.5
Sun offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+16pp
OT·24.5
Aaliyah Edwards misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+5pp
OT·24.5
Nyara Sabally shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
−16pp
OT·42.7
Brittney Sykes makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 104
+9pp
OT·57.7
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
CON 102·TOR 102
+3pp
OT·1:00
Saniya Rivers misses 25-foot three point shotBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 102
+8pp
OT·1:17
Marina Mabrey makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 102
+11pp
OT·1:36
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
CON 102·TOR 100
+3pp
OT·1:38
Charlisse Leger-Walker misses 13-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
+17pp
OT·1:55
Nyara Sabally personal foulBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
−11pp
OT·1:55
Aaliyah Edwards defensive rebound
CON 102·TOR 100
−3pp
OT·1:57
Nyara Sabally misses layupBIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
−8pp
OT·2:10
Kennedy Burke makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CON 102·TOR 100
+8pp
OT·2:10
Nyara Sabally enters the game for Maria Conde
·
CON 101·TOR 100

Betting line

TOR -8.5·O/U 167.5·CON +300/TOR -380

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo held off Connecticut Sun, 106–102 in overtime. Decided by 4.

CON +8.5 cashed (TOR won by 4). Total cleared the 167.5 OVER by 40.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CON

TOR

eFG%

shooting

52.0%

50.7%

TOV%

ball control

16.6%

11.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

51.4%

31.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

33.8%

52.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Saniya RiversCON · G
AST/TO2.179
Laura JuskaiteTOR · F
TS%.60874

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

79.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
78.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
80.8%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
83.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.37

CLV pp

Open price

-310

Close price

-305

Open no-vig

72.6%

Close no-vig

72.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CON at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+30.2pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

CON

no live price

TOR

★ best

+105DraftKings

edge +30.2pp · implied 45.9%

Book	CON	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-135	+105★	+30.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs CON.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Brittney GrinerCON
14.5± 7.5medium

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
6.6± 3.1high

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Leila LacanCON
4.6± 1.5high
Charlisse Leger-WalkerCON
4.0± 2.4high

Blocks

Brittney GrinerCON
1.8± 1.0medium
Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON
1.1± 1.2high
Kennedy BurkeCON
0.8± 0.9high

Steals

Leila LacanCON
2.0± 1.3high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
Ashlon JacksonCON
1.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Connecticut SunToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Sparks88Storm83Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop