Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DAL?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+23DAL

SEA

3-7

5679

DAL

6-3

WNBAMon, Jun 1FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-0VegasDAL -13.5

SEA · top performer

Awa Fam

C · #11

7.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Aziaha James

G · #10

11.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSEA ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:31

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. HorstonF · #23	27	2	1-7	0-2	—	-13	6	1
S. DolsonC · #31	20	2	1-4	0-2	—	-18	2	0
N. HiedemanG · #2	26	11	3-9	0-2	5-5	-22	2	2
F. JohnsonG · #4	25	16	4-12	1-5	7-10	-22	10	1
J. MelbourneG · #5	25	5	2-8	1-3	—	-23	3	1
Bench
K. SamuelsonF · #33	12	6	2-2	2-2	0-2	-3	2	2
M. HolmesF · #54	14	2	1-2	—	—	+6	1	2
A. FamC · #11	31	8	4-10	0-1	—	-17	7	1
L. BrownG · #8	5	0	—	—	—	-2	1	1
Z. CookeG · #7	16	4	2-7	0-2	—	-1	2	0
Team		56	20-61	4-19	12-17		36	11
DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	23	9	4-9	—	1-2	+16	8	1
M. SiegristF · #20	22	9	3-10	1-2	2-2	+21	9	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	18	9	2-13	0-5	5-6	+9	5	0
P. BueckersG · #5	24	10	4-12	1-5	1-2	+18	9	7
A. FuddG · #35	24	9	4-7	1-4	—	+15	1	0
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	18	6	1-3	1-3	3-4	+5	5	1
A. SmithF · #8	22	5	2-6	0-3	1-2	+10	4	3
L. YueruC · #28	9	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	2	0
O. SimsG · #1	21	2	1-5	—	0-2	+13	2	4
A. JamesG · #10	18	18	7-14	1-2	3-4	+9	3	1
Team		79	29-81	5-25	16-24		48	19
DNP: J. Quinerly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

20-61

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-81

FG %

4-19

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-25

12-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL leads series 2-0

Jun 2

SEA56@

DAL79today

Jun 23

DAL112@

SEA110

Aug 23

SEA@

DALupcoming

Sep 24

DAL@

SEAupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -13.5

Between 10 and —

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

SEA+50017%

DAL-70088%

50· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -13.5↗SpreadBet DAL -13.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

+1.0 since open

Total

166.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat SEA 79-56. A. James led with 18 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. DAL outscored the other side 21-12 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs SEA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SEAstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

36 PTS · 23 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 16

DALstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 32 REB · 10 AST

GS 39

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SEA1st Quarter · 3:37 · 6-11

+8pp→ 17% WP

Mackenzie Holmes · enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman

DAL2nd Quarter · 8:31 · 10-20

+9pp→ 92% WP

Flau'jae Johnson · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SEA	10	15	12	19	56
DAL	16	20	21	22	79

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · DAL won 4

Johnson 2

Smith 8

Hiedeman 9

Johnson 9

Melbourne 5

Ogunbowale 8

Johnson 12

Fam 7

SEA

DAL

Shooting comparison

SEA

DAL

33%

20-61

36%

29-81

21%

4-19

3PT

20%

5-25

71%

12-17

67%

16-24

Play-by-play · 422 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 56·DAL 79
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 56·DAL 79
Q4·8.5
Katie Lou Samuelson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mackenzie Holmes assists)
· ·
SEA 56·DAL 79
Q4·17.8
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
SEA 53·DAL 79
Q4·21.5
Jordan Horston blocks Aziaha James 's 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
SEA 53·DAL 79
Q4·30.3
Zia Cooke makes 8-foot two point shot
SEA 53·DAL 79
Q4·39.7
Aziaha James makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 51·DAL 79
Q4·39.7
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 51·DAL 78
Q4·39.7
Mackenzie Holmes enters the game for Flau'jae Johnson
· ·
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·39.7
Flau'jae Johnson loose ball foul
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·40.8
Flau'jae Johnson lost ball turnover
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·51.5
Alanna Smith bad pass turnover (Awa Fam steals)
·
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·1:11
Zia Cooke offensive foul turnover
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·1:11
Zia Cooke offensive foul
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·1:27
Li Yueru makes layup
SEA 51·DAL 77
Q4·1:29
Li Yueru offensive rebound
SEA 51·DAL 75
Q4·1:30
Alysha Clark misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 51·DAL 75
Q4·1:48
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 51·DAL 75
Q4·1:48
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 50·DAL 75
Q4·1:48
Li Yueru shooting foul
SEA 49·DAL 75
Q4·2:00
Alysha Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 49·DAL 75
Q4·2:00
Alysha Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 49·DAL 74
Q4·2:00
Katie Lou Samuelson enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
SEA 49·DAL 73
Q4·2:00
Jade Melbourne personal foul
SEA 49·DAL 73
Q4·2:09
Flau'jae Johnson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
SEA 49·DAL 73
Q4·2:22
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 1
SEA 46·DAL 73
Q4·2:22
Zia Cooke enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
SEA 46·DAL 72
Q4·2:22
Jade Melbourne shooting foul
SEA 46·DAL 72
Q4·2:22
Aziaha James makes 15-foot two point shot (Odyssey Sims assists)
·
SEA 46·DAL 72
Q4·2:39
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
SEA 46·DAL 70

Betting line

DAL -13.5·O/U 166.5·SEA +500/DAL -700

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings held off Seattle Storm, 79–56. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DAL -13.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 166.5 by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

SEA

DAL

eFG%

shooting

36.1%

38.9%

TOV%

ball control

19.9%

8.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

16.7%

37.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

19.7%

19.8%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Stefanie DolsonSEA · C
TS%.64588
Natisha HiedemanSEA · G
USG%.25484
Flau'jae JohnsonSEA · G
USG%.25283

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
62.8%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
61.9%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.8%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.05

CLV pp

Open price

+410

Close price

+440

Open no-vig

18.8%

Close no-vig

17.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at DAL?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.4pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best

+470DraftKings

edge +24.4pp · implied 16.8%

DAL

no live price

Book	SEA	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+470★	-650	+24.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 105 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
17.3± 8.6high
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
16.9± 7.1high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.0± 4.1high
Dominique MalongaSEA
10.0± 3.1high
Awa FamSEA
6.8± 2.7high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.1± 2.3high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.9± 2.7high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
4.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.3± 1.5high
Awa FamSEA
1.2± 0.7high
Dominique MalongaSEA
1.2± 1.2high

Steals

Flau'jae JohnsonSEA
1.6± 1.2high
Azzi FuddDAL
1.5± 1.2high
Natisha HiedemanSEA
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle StormDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Lynx111Mercury77Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop