Jun 25, 25sim 95
686
19(H)97
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+23DAL
SEA
3-7
5679
DAL
6-3
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 374 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · WNBA
allas Wings held off Seattle Storm, 79–56. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DAL -13.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 166.5 by 31.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SEA · top performer
A
Awa Fam
C · #11
7.8Game score
8
Pts
7
Reb
1
Ast
DAL · top performer
Aziaha James
G · #10
11.8Game score
18
Pts
3
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SEA3-7
5679
DAL6-3
SEA3-7DAL6-3
SEA
3-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -13 | |
| 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -18 | |
| 26 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -22 | |
| 25 | 16 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -22 | |
| 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -23 | |
| 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | |
| 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +6 | |
| 31 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -17 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | |
| Team | 56 | 36 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 17 | ||
| DNP: J. Holmes, E. Magbegor, D. Malonga | ||||||||
DAL
6-3
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 23 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
ORB%.10999+ DRB%.35099+ AST/TO4.799+ | ||||||||
| 22 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 18 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9 | |
| 24 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
TS%.62099+ eFG%.58299+ AST/TO2.789 | ||||||||
| 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +15 | |
| 18 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | |
| 22 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +10 | |
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | |
| 21 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +13 | |
| 18 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +9 | |
| Team | 79 | 48 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 8 | ||
| DNP: J. Quinerly | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
33
FG %
36
11
Ast
19
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
Jun 2SEA56@DAL79today
SEA56@DAL79todayJun 23DAL@SEAupcoming
DAL@SEAupcomingAug 23SEA@DALupcoming
SEA@DALupcomingSep 24DAL@SEAupcoming
DAL@SEAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -13.5
Between 10 and —
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
166.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
SEA+50017%DAL-70088%50· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
+1.0 since open
Total
166.5
-2.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowSEA ↔ DAL
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:31
SEAA. Fam
CGame leader · 31 min
8 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST
DALA. James
GGame leader · 18 min
18 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
How it ended
DAL beat SEA 79-56. A. James led with 18 PTS, 3 REB, 1 AST. DAL outscored the other side 21-12 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs SEA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSEAstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
36 PTS · 23 REB · 5 AST
GS 10
Bench(5)
20 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST
GS 16
DALstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
46 PTS · 32 REB · 10 AST
GS 39
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST
GS 20
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSEA1st Quarter · 3:37 · 6-11
+8pp→ 17% WP
Mackenzie Holmes · enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
DAL2nd Quarter · 8:31 · 10-20
+9pp→ 92% WP
Flau'jae Johnson · personal foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 10 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 56 |
| DAL | 16 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 79 |
Period scoring
SEA won 0 · DAL won 4
10
16
Q1
Johnson 2
Smith 8
15
20
Q2
Hiedeman 9
Johnson 9
12
21
Q3
Melbourne 5
Ogunbowale 8
19
22
Q4
Johnson 12
Fam 7
SEA
DAL
Shooting comparison
SEA
DAL
33%
20-61
FG
36%
29-81
21%
4-19
3PT
20%
5-25
71%
12-17
FT
67%
16-24
Play-by-play · 422 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SEA 56·DAL 79
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SEA 56·DAL 79
- Q4·8.5
Katie Lou Samuelson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mackenzie Holmes assists)
· ·
SEA 56·DAL 79
- Q4·17.8
Zia Cooke defensive rebound
SEA 53·DAL 79
- Q4·21.5
Jordan Horston blocks Aziaha James 's 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
SEA 53·DAL 79
- Q4·30.3
Zia Cooke makes 8-foot two point shot
SEA 53·DAL 79
- Q4·39.7
Aziaha James makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 51·DAL 79
- Q4·39.7
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 51·DAL 78
- Q4·39.7
Mackenzie Holmes enters the game for Flau'jae Johnson
· ·
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·39.7
Flau'jae Johnson loose ball foul
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·40.8
Flau'jae Johnson lost ball turnover
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·51.5
Alanna Smith bad pass turnover (Awa Fam steals)
·
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·1:11
Zia Cooke offensive foul turnover
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·1:11
Zia Cooke offensive foul
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·1:27
Li Yueru makes layup
SEA 51·DAL 77
- Q4·1:29
Li Yueru offensive rebound
SEA 51·DAL 75
- Q4·1:30
Alysha Clark misses 25-foot three point jumper
SEA 51·DAL 75
- Q4·1:48
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 51·DAL 75
- Q4·1:48
Flau'jae Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 50·DAL 75
- Q4·1:48
Li Yueru shooting foul
SEA 49·DAL 75
- Q4·2:00
Alysha Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
SEA 49·DAL 75
- Q4·2:00
Alysha Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
SEA 49·DAL 74
- Q4·2:00
Katie Lou Samuelson enters the game for Jade Melbourne
·
SEA 49·DAL 73
- Q4·2:00
Jade Melbourne personal foul
SEA 49·DAL 73
- Q4·2:09
Flau'jae Johnson makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
SEA 49·DAL 73
- Q4·2:22
Aziaha James makes free throw 1 of 1
SEA 46·DAL 73
- Q4·2:22
Zia Cooke enters the game for Natisha Hiedeman
·
SEA 46·DAL 72
- Q4·2:22
Jade Melbourne shooting foul
SEA 46·DAL 72
- Q4·2:22
Aziaha James makes 15-foot two point shot (Odyssey Sims assists)
·
SEA 46·DAL 72
- Q4·2:39
Alanna Smith defensive rebound
SEA 46·DAL 70
Team stats
SEA
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
20-61
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
29-81
33
FG %
36
4-19
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
5-25
12-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-24
11
Assists
19
17
Turnovers
8
Betting line
DAL -13.5·O/U 166.5·SEA +500/DAL -700
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
Jessica ShepardDAL · FORB%.10999+
Paige BueckersDAL · GTS%.62099+
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
31.9%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-1.05
CLV pp
Open price
+410
Close price
+440
Open no-vig
18.8%
Close no-vig
17.8%
Market faded the model
Player projections
DAL vs SEA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
100
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Paige BueckersDAL17.7± 9.0low
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL13.6± 12.3low
- Dominique MalongaSEA13.6± 9.4low
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL10.4± 6.1low
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.6± 3.0low
- Mackenzie HolmesSEA5.3± 3.7low
Assists
- Paige BueckersDAL5.6± 3.1low
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.5± 5.1low
- Jade MelbourneSEA4.0± 1.9low
Blocks
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.4± 1.5low
- Flau'jae JohnsonSEA1.4± 1.6low
- Stefanie DolsonSEA1.0± 1.3low
Steals
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.5± 1.8low
- Jordan HorstonSEA1.3± 1.9low
- Jade MelbourneSEA1.1± 1.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
SEA
league avg
DAL
41.6%
FG%
44.6
▶46.6%
33.2%
3PT %
32.6
▶37.3%
78.7
PPG
85.4
▶88.9
17.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.4
14.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3