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FINAL+2VGK
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

31
COL

COL

55-16-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 997 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, May 22FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -192

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 3–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Ross Colton

Ross Colton

C · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
VGK39-26-17COL55-16-11
VGK

VGK

39-26-17

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

55-16-11

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Playoff series

VGK leads series 2-0

May 21VGKVGK4@COLCOL2
May 23VGKVGK3@COLCOL1today
May 25COLCOL3@VGKVGK5
May 27COLCOL1@VGKVGK2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK+16038%
COLCOL-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0033
COL1001

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · COL won 1

0
1

1

0
0

2

3
0

3

VGK
COL

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 3·COL 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 3·COL 1

  3. 3rd·19:44

    Artturi Lehkonen Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  4. 3rd·19:40

    Keegan Kolesar hit Ross Colton

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  5. 3rd·19:34

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  6. 3rd·19:20

    Artturi Lehkonen hit Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  7. 3rd·19:16

    Keegan Kolesar hit Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  8. 3rd·18:57

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  9. 3rd·18:57

    Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (5)

    ·

    VGK 3·COL 1

  10. 3rd·18:50

    Brock Nelson Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  11. 3rd·18:35

    Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Devon Toews

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  12. 3rd·18:03

    William Karlsson faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  13. 3rd·18:03

    Icing

    VGK 2·COL 1

  14. 3rd·17:02

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  15. 3rd·17:02

    Icing

    VGK 2·COL 1

  16. 3rd·16:54

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  17. 3rd·16:54

    Puck in Netting

    VGK 2·COL 1

  18. 3rd·16:44

    Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  19. 3rd·16:44

    On-Ice Official

    VGK 2·COL 1

  20. 3rd·16:29

    Brett Howden Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  21. 3rd·16:20

    Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  22. 3rd·16:12

    Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  23. 3rd·16:05

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Brett Howden

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  24. 3rd·15:21

    Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  25. 3rd·14:50

    Colton Sissons hit Jack Drury

    · ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  26. 3rd·14:21

    Keegan Kolesar hit Brett Kulak

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  27. 3rd·14:13

    Nic Dowd shot blocked by Brett Kulak

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  28. 3rd·14:00

    Cole Smith hit Artturi Lehkonen

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

  29. 3rd·13:48

    Takeaway by Mitch Marner

    VGK 2·COL 1

  30. 3rd·13:26

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against William Karlsson

    ·

    VGK 2·COL 1

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

COL

Home

25

Shots

31

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

8

24

Faceoffs W

34

16

Blocks

20

10

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +160/COL -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Martin NecasCOL · C
    BURSTS7599
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    BURSTS7198

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.38

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR