Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at COL?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

VGK

39-26-17

COL

55-16-11

NHLFri, May 22FinalSeriesCOL wins series 2-1VegasCOL -192

VGK · top performer

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

3Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Brent Burns

D · #84

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	2	1	3	3	7	0	0	16:15
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	2	1	2	0	1	0	17:56
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:03
J. EichelC · #9	1	1	3	2	1	2	2	19:06
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	13:23
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	17:09
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	17:42
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	9:13
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	21:02
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:18
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:43
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	9:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	26:41
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	16:42
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	2	1	0	3	0	24:01
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	11:13
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	12:13
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	0	4	25:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	31	1	30	.968	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:18
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	9:56
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	0	2	4	0	0	17:48
P. KellyC · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:52
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	20:16
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	16:23
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	22:30
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	-2	2	3	0	4	21:05
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	18:06
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:07
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:35
N. RoyC · #10	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	11:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:21
B. BurnsD · #84	0	1	1	5	1	2	2	20:01
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	20:07
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	20:40
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	16:45
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-2	3	0	4	0	28:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	24	2	22	.917	55:32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 2-0

May 21

VGK4@

COL2

May 23

VGK3@

COL1today

May 25

COL3@

VGK5

May 27

COL1@

VGK2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+16038%

COL-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat COL 3-1. I. Barbashev led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	0	3	3
COL	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

VGK won 1 · COL won 1

VGK

COL

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·19:44
Artturi Lehkonen Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·19:40
Keegan Kolesar hit Ross Colton
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·19:34
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·19:20
Artturi Lehkonen hit Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·19:16
Keegan Kolesar hit Valeri Nichushkin
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·18:57
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·18:57
Ivan Barbashev Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (5)
·
VGK 3·COL 1
3rd·18:50
Brock Nelson Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·18:35
Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Devon Toews
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·18:03
William Karlsson faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·18:03
Icing
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·17:02
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·17:02
Icing
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:54
Jack Drury faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:54
Puck in Netting
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:44
Nicolas Roy faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:44
On-Ice Official
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:29
Brett Howden Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:20
Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:12
Brock Nelson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·16:05
Brent Burns shot blocked by Brett Howden
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·15:21
Nazem Kadri Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·14:50
Colton Sissons hit Jack Drury
· ·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·14:21
Keegan Kolesar hit Brett Kulak
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·14:13
Nic Dowd shot blocked by Brett Kulak
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·14:00
Cole Smith hit Artturi Lehkonen
·
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·13:48
Takeaway by Mitch Marner
VGK 2·COL 1
3rd·13:26
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 2·COL 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +160/COL -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 3–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mitch Marner · VGK21:060.7358.1%57.3%21:06 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 58.1% CF · 57.3% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK13:300.3855.6%74.2%13:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 55.6% CF · 74.2% xGF
Gabriel Landeskog · COL20:240.3765.0%80.8%20:24 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 65.0% CF · 80.8% xGF
Brandon Saad · VGK9:180.3142.1%67.2%9:18 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 42.1% CF · 67.2% xGF
Artturi Lehkonen · COL16:300.2848.7%49.8%16:30 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 48.7% CF · 49.8% xGF
Devon Toews · COL29:240.2858.8%56.6%29:24 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 58.8% CF · 56.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK30–1.968+1.1530–1 · .968 SV% · +1.15 GSAx
Scott Wedgewood · COL22–2.917+0.5922–2 · .917 SV% · +0.59 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
61.5%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.5%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.5%
P(COL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.38

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at COL?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

VGK

no live price

COL

no live price

Book	VGK	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	+150	-180	+0.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.