Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

VGK

39-26-17

ANA

43-33-6

NHLThu, May 14FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasANA -130

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Mikael Granlund

C · #64

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	2	0	4	0	0	17:01
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:43
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	1	3	3	4	14:58
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	20:25
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	9:05
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	2	3	2	0	0	16:13
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	17:32
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:54
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:11
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:01
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:26
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	10:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	26:04
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	3	2	4	2	0	19:30
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	25:55
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:27
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:26
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	1	3	1	0	2	0	24:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	32	1	31	.969	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:45
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	17:34
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	-2	4	2	0	2	24:09
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	6:04
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	8:46
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-3	0	0	0	2	21:11
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:49
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	12:20
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	-2	5	0	0	0	20:03
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	20:27
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:35
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	14:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	23:02
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-4	3	1	4	0	29:36
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	13:39
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:30
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-2	3	4	1	2	22:09
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	21	5	16	.762	55:31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK wins series 4-2

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+11048%

ANA-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat ANA 5-1. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	3	0	2	5
ANA	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · ANA won 1

VGK

ANA

Play-by-play · 350 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:56
Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:52
Cutter Gauthier Backhand saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:28
Beckett Sennecke shot blocked by Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:22
Tim Washe faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:22
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·19:18
Mikael Granlund Tip-In saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:32
Brett Howden faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:32
High Stick
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:23
Beckett Sennecke Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:18
Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:12
Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:12
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:11
Beckett Sennecke Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:02
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Cutter Gauthier
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:52
William Karlsson faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:52
Puck in Netting
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:50
Jackson LaCombe shot blocked by Colton Sissons
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:47
Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:47
Player Equipment
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:47
Carter Hart Goalie removed own mask served by Ivan Barbashev
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:41
Beckett Sennecke Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:30
Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:09
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:09
Icing
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:05
Carter Hart Wrist Shot Wide Left
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:04
Dylan Coghlan hit Mason McTavish
·
VGK 5·ANA 1
3rd·17:03
Mason McTavish Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 1

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +110/ANA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 5–1.

VGK +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Beckett Sennecke · ANA20:120.5668.3%69.7%20:12 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 68.3% CF · 69.7% xGF
Mikael Granlund · ANA24:300.5565.5%69.2%24:30 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 65.5% CF · 69.2% xGF
Leo Carlsson · ANA17:060.4866.7%58.8%17:06 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 66.7% CF · 58.8% xGF
Brett Howden · VGK16:360.4644.8%35.6%16:36 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 44.8% CF · 35.6% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR16:540.4545.5%48.8%16:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 45.5% CF · 48.8% xGF
Jacob Trouba · ANA22:240.4044.9%44.0%22:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 44.9% CF · 44.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK31–1.969+1.3931–1 · .969 SV% · +1.39 GSAx
Lukas Dostal · ANA16–5.762-2.6516–5 · .762 SV% · -2.65 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

VGK

no live price

ANA

no live price

Book	VGK	ANA	Best edge
DraftKings	+110	-130	+0.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL

Canadiens6Sabres3Final