Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at VGK?

The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

ANA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

NHLTue, May 12FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasVGK -162

ANA · top performer

Mason McTavish

C · #23

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	19:09
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	2	0	4	2	1	0	20:05
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:36
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	10:50
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	22:24
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:51
M. McTavishC · #23	0	2	0	6	3	0	0	14:31
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2:20
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	24:13
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:17
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	13:39
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	16:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	26:16
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	30:47
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	14:12
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	9:52
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	25:49
O. ZellwegerD · #51	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	32	3	29	.906	64:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	1	1	7	0	0	18:20
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	0	1	4	0	2	0	16:30
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	10:39
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	1	6	0	1	0	23:04
T. HertlC · #48	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	14:41
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	18:45
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	17:08
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	12:03
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:52
B. SaadLW · #20	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:38
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:13
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	10:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	26:37
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	20:05
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	28:01
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	19:03
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	3:17
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	2	1	4	0	30:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	36	2	34	.944	64:10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 3-2

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3today

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+13642%

VGK-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat ANA 3-2. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
ANA	1	0	1	0	2
VGK	1	0	1	1	3

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · VGK won 1

ANA

VGK

Play-by-play · 340 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·4:10
Game End
ANA 2·VGK 3
1st OT·4:10
End of OT
ANA 2·VGK 3
1st OT·4:10
Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (14)
·
ANA 2·VGK 3
1st OT·4:07
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·3:59
Ben Hutton Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·3:49
Ivan Barbashev hit Olen Zellweger
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·3:19
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·2:48
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·2:44
Blocked Shot
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·2:15
Nic Dowd shot blocked by Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·1:45
Ivan Barbashev Tip-In Wide Right
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·1:32
Mikael Granlund Backhand Wide Right
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·1:11
Jackson LaCombe shot blocked by Mitch Marner
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:43
Brett Howden hit Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:24
Tim Washe faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:24
Goalie Stopped
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:22
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:19
William Karlsson faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:19
Icing
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:00
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
1st OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·19:54
Beckett Sennecke hit Dylan Coghlan
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·19:50
Brett Howden hit Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·19:42
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·19:39
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·19:01
Takeaway by Ivan Barbashev
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·18:45
Noah Hanifin Snap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·18:39
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
ANA 2·VGK 2
3rd·18:39
Puck Frozen - Goalie
ANA 2·VGK 2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +136/VGK -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Anaheim Ducks, 3–2 in overtime.

ANA +1.5 cashed (VGK won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mason McTavish · STL14:480.6468.3%59.3%14:48 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 68.3% CF · 59.3% xGF
Beckett Sennecke · ANA24:180.6154.8%45.7%24:18 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 54.8% CF · 45.7% xGF
William Karlsson · VGK17:180.5927.3%46.9%17:18 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 27.3% CF · 46.9% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR16:420.4859.5%58.0%16:42 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 59.5% CF · 58.0% xGF
Noah Hanifin · VGK28:060.4246.7%54.1%28:06 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 46.7% CF · 54.1% xGF
Rasmus Andersson · VGK26:540.4140.3%53.8%26:54 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 40.3% CF · 53.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK34–2.944+0.8834–2 · .944 SV% · +0.88 GSAx
Lukas Dostal · ANA29–3.906+0.3829–3 · .906 SV% · +0.38 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
60.5%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.5%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.5%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at VGK?: The model favors VGK, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

ANA

no live price

VGK

no live price

Book	ANA	VGK	Best edge
DraftKings	+136	-162	+1.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL

Sabres3Canadiens2Final