NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

VGK

39-26-17

ANA

43-33-6

NHLSun, May 10FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasANA -125

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3.

VGK +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	15:12
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:32
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	14:46
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	22:10
T. HertlC · #48	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:09
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	16:43
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:47
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	6	0	0	8:22
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	3	1	2	0	0	0	24:08
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:20
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	10:57
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	1	2	10:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	19:09
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:43
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	22:56
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	14:56
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	17:05
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	24:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	23	4	19	.826	57:43

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	16:01
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	3	1	4	3	0	0	12:39
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	19:29
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	12:59
A. KillornLW · #17	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	20:19
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:00
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:25
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:39
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	15:53
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:17
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	1	2	6	1	0	12:56
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	0	6	2	0	16:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	21:39
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-2	0	2	2	0	26:53
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18:48
I. MooreD · #3	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	8:27
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	26:11
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	11:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	21	3	18	.857	59:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4today

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+10549%

ANA-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

VGK

P. Dorofeyev

Top skater

1 G · 4 SOG

C. Hart

Goaltender

19 SV · 4 GA · .826

ANA

C. Gauthier

Top skater

3 A · 4 SOG

L. Dostal

Goaltender

18 SV · 3 GA · .857

How it ended

ANA beat VGK 4-3. C. Gauthier led the way — 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	1	1	3
ANA	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · ANA won 1

VGK

ANA

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:59
Jacob Trouba hit Mitch Marner
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:49
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:49
Icing
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:15
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:15
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:10
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Jeffrey Viel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:07
Tim Washe hit Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:03
Pavel Dorofeyev Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:02
Takeaway by Pavel Dorofeyev
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·18:56
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·18:56
Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (10), Jack Eichel (12)
· ·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·18:55
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:37
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:34
William Karlsson faceoff won against Troy Terry
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:34
Timeout - Visitor
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:34
Off-side
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:25
Takeaway by Cutter Gauthier
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:42
Tim Washe hit Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:48
Troy Terry shot blocked by Ben Hutton
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:23
Ivan Barbashev Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·15:04
Takeaway by Ryan Poehling
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:36
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:36
TV Timeout
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:36
John Carlson Delaying Game - Puck over glass
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:32
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:32
Icing
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·13:50
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·13:50
High Stick
VGK 2·ANA 4

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +105/ANA -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
DIST MI74.299

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mitch Marner · VGK24:180.4066.7%72.3%24:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 66.7% CF · 72.3% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · VGK18:420.3973.9%86.0%18:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 73.9% CF · 86.0% xGF
Mason McTavish · ANA11:240.3887.1%97.5%11:24 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 87.1% CF · 97.5% xGF
Cutter Gauthier · ANA12:480.2887.1%96.1%12:48 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 87.1% CF · 96.1% xGF
Jacob Trouba · ANA26:180.2843.2%38.4%26:18 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 43.2% CF · 38.4% xGF
William Karlsson · VGK19:000.2646.4%53.2%19:00 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 46.4% CF · 53.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Lukas Dostal · ANA18–3.857-1.0118–3 · .857 SV% · -1.01 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK19–4.826-2.9819–4 · .826 SV% · -2.98 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(ANA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit