Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

VGK

39-26-17

ANA

43-33-6

NHLSun, May 10FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasANA -125

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	15:12
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:32
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	14:46
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	22:10
T. HertlC · #48	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:09
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	16:43
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:47
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	6	0	0	8:22
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	3	1	2	0	0	0	24:08
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:20
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	10:57
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	1	2	10:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	0	0	1	2	19:09
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:43
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	22:56
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	14:56
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	17:05
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	24:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	23	4	19	.826	57:43

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	16:01
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	3	1	4	3	0	0	12:39
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	19:29
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	12:59
A. KillornLW · #17	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	20:19
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:00
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:25
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:39
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	15:53
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	16:17
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	1	2	6	1	0	12:56
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	0	6	2	0	16:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	21:39
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-2	0	2	2	0	26:53
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18:48
I. MooreD · #3	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	8:27
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	26:11
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	11:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	21	3	18	.857	59:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4today

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+10549%

ANA-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat VGK 4-3. C. Gauthier led the way — 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	1	1	1	3
ANA	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · ANA won 1

VGK

ANA

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:59
Jacob Trouba hit Mitch Marner
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:49
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:49
Icing
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:15
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:15
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:10
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Jeffrey Viel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:07
Tim Washe hit Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:03
Pavel Dorofeyev Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·19:02
Takeaway by Pavel Dorofeyev
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·18:56
Tim Washe faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·18:56
Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (10), Jack Eichel (12)
· ·
VGK 3·ANA 4
3rd·18:55
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:37
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:34
William Karlsson faceoff won against Troy Terry
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:34
Timeout - Visitor
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:34
Off-side
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·18:25
Takeaway by Cutter Gauthier
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·17:42
Tim Washe hit Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:48
Troy Terry shot blocked by Ben Hutton
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·16:23
Ivan Barbashev Tip-In saved by Lukas Dostal
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·15:04
Takeaway by Ryan Poehling
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:36
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:36
TV Timeout
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:36
John Carlson Delaying Game - Puck over glass
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:32
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·14:32
Icing
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·13:50
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 2·ANA 4
3rd·13:50
High Stick
VGK 2·ANA 4

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +105/ANA -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–3.

VGK +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cutter Gauthier · ANA12:480.4387.1%94.4%12:48 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 87.1% CF · 94.4% xGF
Mason McTavish · STL11:240.4287.1%96.6%11:24 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 87.1% CF · 96.6% xGF
Mitch Marner · VGK24:180.3866.7%68.6%24:18 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 66.7% CF · 68.6% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK13:180.3476.0%72.8%13:18 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 76.0% CF · 72.8% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · NYR18:420.3373.9%82.1%18:42 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 73.9% CF · 82.1% xGF
Jacob Trouba · ANA26:180.3143.2%42.4%26:18 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 43.2% CF · 42.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Lukas Dostal · ANA18–3.857-0.3118–3 · .857 SV% · -0.31 GSAx
Carter Hart · VGK19–4.826-1.9919–4 · .826 SV% · -1.99 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
53.7%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.7%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL

Sabres2Canadiens6Final