NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2VGK

ANA

43-33-6

VGK

39-26-17

NHLMon, May 4FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasVGK -175

ANA · top performer

Mikael Granlund

C · #64

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	21:03
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	14:04
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	0	2	2	2	0	22:17
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:27
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	18:31
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	9:09
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	9:38
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:45
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	20:54
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	2	8	0	4	13:06
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	12:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	1	0	2	1	2	2	24:43
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:18
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	8:45
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-1	2	2	0	0	28:07
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:49
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	9:51
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	4	4	2	0	22:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	21	2	19	.905	58:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:04
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:10
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	13:39
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	20:57
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	10:04
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	14:45
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	11:09
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	11:47
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	18:12
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	0	1	2	2	11:52
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	10:47
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	19:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	3	1	0	1	2	21:39
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	22:46
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	8:47
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	13:14
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	1	5	3	0	25:09
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	25:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	34	1	33	.971	59:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 1-0

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3today

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+14541%

VGK-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 95 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat ANA 3-1. M. Marner led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	0	1	1
VGK	0	1	2	3

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · VGK won 2

ANA

VGK

Play-by-play · 354 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 1·VGK 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 1·VGK 3
3rd·20:00
Ben Hutton Roughing against Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 1·VGK 3
3rd·20:00
Jeffrey Viel Roughing against Ben Hutton
·
ANA 1·VGK 3
3rd·19:54
Tim Washe faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
ANA 1·VGK 3
3rd·19:54
Mitch Marner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
ANA 1·VGK 3
3rd·19:13
Giveaway by Mark Stone
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·19:09
Leo Carlsson Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·19:02
Giveaway by Brayden McNabb
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:55
Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:52
Troy Terry Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:46
Jack Eichel hit Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:35
Leo Carlsson Tip-In Wide Left
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:28
Chris Kreider Tip-In Wide Left
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:23
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:23
Puck in Netting
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:20
Mikael Granlund Snap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·18:08
Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·17:08
Giveaway by Rasmus Andersson
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·16:43
Giveaway by Alex Killorn
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Noah Hanifin
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·16:02
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·16:02
Icing
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:51
Brett Howden faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:51
Goalie Stopped
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:49
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:27
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:27
Off-side
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:02
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
ANA 1·VGK 2
3rd·15:02
Ivan Barbashev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (1)
·
ANA 1·VGK 2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +145/VGK -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Anaheim Ducks, 3–1.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Leo Carlsson · ANA21:060.5980.0%84.9%21:06 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 80.0% CF · 84.9% xGF
Mitch Marner · VGK18:420.4854.1%56.7%18:42 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 54.1% CF · 56.7% xGF
Troy Terry · ANA21:060.4782.5%86.5%21:06 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 82.5% CF · 86.5% xGF
Mark Stone · VGK19:300.3646.2%47.8%19:30 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 46.2% CF · 47.8% xGF
Cutter Gauthier · ANA14:300.3178.1%78.6%14:30 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 78.1% CF · 78.6% xGF
Tomas Hertl · VGK10:060.3055.6%76.9%10:06 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 55.6% CF · 76.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK33–1.971+2.3033–1 · .971 SV% · +2.30 GSAx
Lukas Dostal · ANA19–2.905-0.0319–2 · .905 SV% · -0.03 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.9%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
58.9%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.9%
P(VGK win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.9%
P(VGK win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL

Flyers2Hurricanes3Final/OT