NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

PHI

43-27-12

CAR

53-22-7

NHLMon, May 4FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -270

PHI · top performer

Sean Couturier

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-2	2	3	0	2	17:15
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	14:01
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	20:53
S. CouturierC · #14	1	0	1	5	5	0	0	24:51
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	22:04
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	23:53
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:27
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	1	1	2	6	0	2	13:45
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	23:58
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	17:37
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	15:10
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	23:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	12:40
J. DrysdaleD · #9	1	0	-1	4	0	1	0	29:12
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	28:16
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	31:19
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	17:54
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-2	2	1	2	2	27:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	42	3	39	.929	78:54

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	25:18
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	22:40
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	1	12	1	0	12:17
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	21:35
T. HallLW · #71	1	0	1	3	1	2	2	21:04
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	12:54
S. JarvisC · #24	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	23:47
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:08
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	6	7	0	0	11:59
J. StaalC · #11	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	21:12
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	21:40
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	0	1	3	0	6	20:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	29:07
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	22:45
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	28:39
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	14:21
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	27:14
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	2	4	3	1	2	23:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	36	2	34	.944	78:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

14.3

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 2-0

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3today

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+22031%

CAR-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 84 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PHI 3-2. J. Blake led the way — 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
PHI	2	0	0	0	2
CAR	1	0	1	1	3

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · CAR won 2

PHI

CAR

Play-by-play · 422 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·18:54
Game End
PHI 2·CAR 3
1st OT·18:54
End of OT
PHI 2·CAR 3
1st OT·18:54
Taylor Hall Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (6), Sean Walker (2)
· ·
PHI 2·CAR 3
1st OT·18:53
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·18:52
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·18:42
Porter Martone hit K'Andre Miller
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·18:05
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·17:42
Jamie Drysdale Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·17:33
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·17:33
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·17:09
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·17:09
Icing
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·16:56
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·16:56
Icing
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·16:33
William Carrier hit Nick Seeler
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·15:51
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·15:44
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Seth Jarvis
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·15:15
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·15:12
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·15:09
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·15:09
Off-side
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:44
Andrei Svechnikov hit Alex Bump
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:38
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:33
Giveaway by Porter Martone
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:19
Denver Barkey faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:19
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:17
Matvei Michkov Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·14:04
Jamie Drysdale Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·13:51
Giveaway by Frederik Andersen
PHI 2·CAR 2
1st OT·13:48
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +220/CAR -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Philadelphia Flyers, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sean Couturier · PHI25:181.1041.7%48.5%25:18 TOI · 1.10 iXG · 41.7% CF · 48.5% xGF
Eric Robinson · CAR13:001.0456.0%79.6%13:00 TOI · 1.04 iXG · 56.0% CF · 79.6% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR22:540.8167.4%57.6%22:54 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 67.4% CF · 57.6% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR24:180.7658.3%51.5%24:18 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 58.3% CF · 51.5% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR22:120.5657.5%52.3%22:12 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 57.5% CF · 52.3% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR23:540.5661.7%57.2%23:54 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 61.7% CF · 57.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR34–2.944+1.7734–2 · .944 SV% · +1.77 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI39–3.929+1.4939–3 · .929 SV% · +1.49 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
67.7%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.7%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL

Ducks1Golden Knights3Final