May 2, 26sim 97
150
7(H)3
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1CAR
PHI
43-27-12
23
CAR
53-22-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
arolina Hurricanes held off Philadelphia Flyers, 3–2 in overtime.
PHI +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
PHI · top performer
Sean Couturier
C · #14
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
CAR · top performer
Jackson Blake
RW · #53
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final / OT
PHI43-27-12
23
CAR53-22-7
PHI43-27-12CAR53-22-7
PHI
43-27-12
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CAR
53-22-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
14
PIM
16
Playoff series
CAR leads series 2-0
May 3PHI0@CAR3
PHI0@CAR3May 4PHI2@CAR3today
PHI2@CAR3todayMay 8CAR4@PHI1
CAR4@PHI1May 9CAR3@PHI2
CAR3@PHI2Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+22031%CAR-27073%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 34 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CAR beat PHI 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Period scoring
PHI won 1 · CAR won 2
2
1
1
0
0
2
0
1
3
0
1
OT
PHI
CAR
Play-by-play · 422 plays
period
event
player
- 1st OT·18:54
Game End
PHI 2·CAR 3
- 1st OT·18:54
End of OT
PHI 2·CAR 3
- 1st OT·18:54
Taylor Hall Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (6), Sean Walker (2)
· ·
PHI 2·CAR 3
- 1st OT·18:53
Jackson Blake Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·18:52
Taylor Hall Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·18:42
Porter Martone hit K'Andre Miller
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·18:05
Giveaway by Seth Jarvis
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·17:42
Jamie Drysdale Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·17:33
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·17:33
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·17:09
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·17:09
Icing
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·16:56
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·16:56
Icing
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·16:33
William Carrier hit Nick Seeler
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·15:51
Nikolaj Ehlers Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·15:44
Nick Seeler shot blocked by Seth Jarvis
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·15:15
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·15:12
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·15:09
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·15:09
Off-side
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:44
Andrei Svechnikov hit Alex Bump
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:38
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:33
Giveaway by Porter Martone
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:19
Denver Barkey faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:19
Goalie Stopped
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:17
Matvei Michkov Backhand saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·14:04
Jamie Drysdale Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·13:51
Giveaway by Frederik Andersen
PHI 2·CAR 2
- 1st OT·13:48
Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 2·CAR 2
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
CAR
Home
36
Shots
42
14.3
PCT
16.7
14
PIM
16
29
Faceoffs W
44
15
Blocks
8
19
Giveaways
20
4
Takeaways
5
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +220/CAR -270
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
Jamie DrysdalePHI · DSKATE MPH23.098
Sean WalkerCAR · DSKATE MPH22.998
Tyson FoersterPHI · RWSHOT MPH92.796
Taylor HallCAR · LWBURSTS4696
Travis SanheimPHI · DSKATE MPH22.795
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · CAR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.