Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

VGK

39-26-17

ANA

43-33-6

NHLFri, May 8FinalSeriesANA wins series 3-0VegasVGK -118

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

4Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Chris Kreider

LW · #20

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	16:31
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	-1	1	1	0	0	15:45
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	12:42
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	1	4	0	1	2	20:59
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:23
B. HowdenC · #21	1	1	2	1	1	0	2	17:37
W. KarlssonC · #71	0	1	2	2	0	1	0	19:20
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:24
M. MarnerRW · #93	3	1	4	5	0	0	0	23:07
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	-1	3	4	3	0	16:52
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	12:06
M. StoneRW · #61	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	4:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:16
D. CoghlanD · #52	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:17
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	18:53
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:33
B. McNabbD · #3	1	0	3	1	2	3	0	19:31
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	1	3	2	0	4	0	21:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	33	2	31	.939	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	18:34
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-3	2	3	1	0	15:49
M. GranlundC · #64	0	1	0	2	2	1	0	15:55
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	11:48
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	11:28
A. KillornLW · #17	0	1	-3	3	0	0	0	16:36
C. KreiderLW · #20	1	0	-1	3	6	0	0	17:09
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-3	0	4	0	0	18:06
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:34
T. TerryRW · #19	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:34
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	11:01
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-4	3	2	0	0	21:02
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:18
T. HindsD · #60	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	14:35
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	0	1	8	0	2	22:49
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	20:20
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	23:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	8	3	5	.625	20:00
V. HussoG · #33	19	2	17	.895	37:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

VGK leads series 2-1

May 5

ANA1@

VGK3

May 7

ANA3@

VGK1

May 9

VGK6@

ANA2today

May 11

VGK3@

ANA4

May 13

ANA2@

VGK3

May 15

VGK5@

ANA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-11854%

ANA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat ANA 6-2. M. Marner led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	3	2	1	6
ANA	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · ANA won 1

VGK

ANA

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:50
Giveaway by Jacob Trouba
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:44
Jansen Harkins hit Ivan Barbashev
·
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:42
Takeaway by Ivan Barbashev
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:37
Jeffrey Viel Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:36
Takeaway by Ryan Poehling
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:07
Ryan Poehling hit Ivan Barbashev
·
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:01
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·19:01
Puck in Netting
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:40
Colton Sissons hit Tim Washe
·
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:13
Giveaway by Tim Washe
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:04
Tim Washe faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·18:04
Brett Howden Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none
VGK 6·ANA 2
3rd·17:59
John Carlson shot blocked by Cutter Gauthier
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:54
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:54
Icing
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:45
Troy Terry Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Brett Howden
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:40
Mikael Granlund hit Brett Howden
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:38
Chris Kreider Tip-In saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:37
Beckett Sennecke Tip-In Wide Right
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:04
Troy Terry Slap Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:00
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against William Karlsson
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·17:00
Puck in Netting
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·16:58
Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Cole Smith
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·16:48
Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Leo Carlsson
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·16:27
Troy Terry shot blocked by Shea Theodore
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·16:23
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 5·ANA 2
3rd·16:23
Goalie Stopped
VGK 5·ANA 2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -118/ANA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 6–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
John CarlsonCAR · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
DIST MI74.299

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mitch Marner · VGK23:240.9442.5%58.7%23:24 TOI · 0.94 iXG · 42.5% CF · 58.7% xGF
Beckett Sennecke · ANA15:360.5764.1%50.7%15:36 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 64.1% CF · 50.7% xGF
Ivan Barbashev · VGK16:480.5145.7%53.2%16:48 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 45.7% CF · 53.2% xGF
Pavel Dorofeyev · VGK15:480.5057.9%73.4%15:48 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 57.9% CF · 73.4% xGF
Colton Sissons · VGK17:120.4441.5%69.1%17:12 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 41.5% CF · 69.1% xGF
William Karlsson · VGK19:360.3230.0%43.5%19:36 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 30.0% CF · 43.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Carter Hart · VGK31–2.939+1.0631–2 · .939 SV% · +1.06 GSAx
Ville Husso · ANA17–2.895+0.3517–2 · .895 SV% · +0.35 GSAx
Lukas Dostal · ANA5–3.625-2.045–3 · .625 SV% · -2.04 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.0%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
55.4%
P(ANA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.4%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.4%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.