Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

39-26-17

UTA

43-33-6

NHLMon, Apr 27FinalSeriesUTA wins series 2-1VegasVGK -135

VGK · top performer

Brett Howden

C · #21

3Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Clayton Keller

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	2	0	6	3	0	23:05
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	18:07
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	19:36
J. EichelC · #9	0	3	3	6	1	0	0	29:22
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	11:39
B. HowdenC · #21	2	1	1	3	2	0	0	21:54
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	10:33
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	1	-1	2	1	1	0	24:10
C. SissonsC · #10	0	1	1	0	1	1	2	16:48
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	17:38
C. SmithRW · #22	1	0	1	2	9	2	4	17:11
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	26:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	27:39
N. HanifinD · #15	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	29:04
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	15:55
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	19:03
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	27:38
S. TheodoreD · #27	1	0	-1	3	0	4	0	33:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	31	4	27	.871	79:08

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	0	4	3	1	0	15:07
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-1	2	5	1	2	27:58
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	1	0	1	8	1	0	28:56
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	1	-1	7	4	0	0	24:34
C. KellerRW · #9	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	25:40
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	21:40
L. O'BrienC · #38	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:11
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	10:18
N. SchmaltzC · #8	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	27:46
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	14:52
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	11:35
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	-1	0	9	0	0	18:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	1	0	-1	1	3	3	0	21:33
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	0	0	1	4	0	20:47
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	27:54
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	27:29
M. SergachevD · #98	0	3	0	1	0	2	0	30:32
M. WeegarD · #52	0	0	0	3	9	1	0	24:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	36	5	31	.861	79:08

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 20

UTA2@

VGK4

Apr 22

UTA3@

VGK2

Apr 25

VGK2@

UTA4

Apr 28

VGK5@

UTA4today

Apr 30

UTA4@

VGK5

May 2

VGK5@

UTA1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-13557%

UTA+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 40 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat UTA 5-4. B. Howden led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VGK	2	1	1	1	5
UTA	0	2	2	0	4

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · UTA won 2

VGK

UTA

Play-by-play · 466 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·19:08
Game End
VGK 5·UTA 4
1st OT·19:08
End of OT
VGK 5·UTA 4
1st OT·19:08
Shea Theodore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5), Brett Howden (1)
· ·
VGK 5·UTA 4
1st OT·19:00
Jack Eichel Deflected saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·18:50
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·18:50
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·18:48
Mark Stone Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·18:42
Kaedan Korczak Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·18:19
Nic Dowd Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·18:02
Brandon Tanev hit Noah Hanifin
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·17:29
Dylan Guenther hit Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·17:11
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Logan Cooley
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·17:11
Icing
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·17:01
Nick Schmaltz hit Brayden McNabb
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·16:48
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·16:48
Hand Pass
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·15:05
Cole Smith hit Clayton Keller
· ·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·14:56
Giveaway by Lawson Crouse
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·14:54
Jeremy Lauzon hit Michael Carcone
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·14:52
Tomas Hertl hit MacKenzie Weegar
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·14:40
Michael Carcone Deflected saved by Carter Hart
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·14:31
Giveaway by Sean Durzi
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·14:06
Kailer Yamamoto hit Mitch Marner
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·13:50
Kailer Yamamoto hit Noah Hanifin
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·13:46
Takeaway by Noah Hanifin
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·13:37
Lawson Crouse hit Reilly Smith
· ·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·13:28
Reilly Smith hit MacKenzie Weegar
· ·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·12:50
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·12:50
Goalie Stopped
VGK 4·UTA 4
1st OT·12:44
Shea Theodore Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
VGK 4·UTA 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -135/UTA +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 5–4 in overtime.

UTA +1.5 cashed (VGK won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Jack EichelVGK · C
DIST MI82.899+
Shea TheodoreVGK · D
DIST MI84.899+
Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
DIST MI75.199+
Tomas HertlVGK · C
xGF%6599
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
DIST MI74.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(UTA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(UTA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.