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FINAL+1SJ
ANA

ANA

41-29-5

34
SJ

SJ

35-31-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Apr 1FinalSeriesSJ leads series 2-1VegasANA -112

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Anaheim Ducks, 4–3.

SJ +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Alex Killorn

Alex Killorn

LW · #17

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at San Jose Sharks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
ANA41-29-5SJ35-31-7
ANA

ANA

41-29-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SJ

SJ

35-31-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

13

Season series

SJ leads series 2-1

Oct 12ANAANA7@SJSJ6
Dec 30SJSJ5@ANAANA4
Apr 2ANAANA3@SJSJ4today
Apr 10SJSJ1@ANAANA6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA-11253%
SJSJ-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat ANA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
ANA1113
SJ1034

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · SJ won 1

1
1

1

1
0

2

1
3

3

ANA
SJ

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    ANA 3·SJ 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 3·SJ 4

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 4

  4. 3rd·19:29

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 4

  5. 3rd·19:29

    Alexander Wennberg Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (65), Sam Dickinson (12)

    · ·

    ANA 3·SJ 4

  6. 3rd·18:21

    Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 3

  7. 3rd·18:21

    Macklin Celebrini Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (29), Will Smith (32)

    · ·

    ANA 3·SJ 3

  8. 3rd·17:59

    Dmitry Orlov Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  9. 3rd·17:51

    Will Smith Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  10. 3rd·17:16

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  11. 3rd·17:16

    Puck in Benches

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  12. 3rd·16:57

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  13. 3rd·16:57

    Icing

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  14. 3rd·16:54

    Kiefer Sherwood hit Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  15. 3rd·16:33

    Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  16. 3rd·16:32

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  17. 3rd·16:32

    Puck in Netting

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  18. 3rd·16:29

    Michael Misa shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  19. 3rd·16:19

    Dmitry Orlov hit Jeffrey Viel

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  20. 3rd·16:18

    Jeffrey Viel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  21. 3rd·15:54

    John Carlson Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  22. 3rd·15:13

    Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  23. 3rd·14:57

    Nick Leddy shot blocked by Ryan Poehling

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  24. 3rd·14:55

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan Poehling

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  25. 3rd·14:55

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  26. 3rd·14:54

    Macklin Celebrini Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  27. 3rd·14:49

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  28. 3rd·14:49

    Icing

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  29. 3rd·14:16

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    ANA 3·SJ 2

  30. 3rd·14:16

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 3·SJ 2

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

SJ

Home

31

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

50.0

11

PIM

13

29

Faceoffs W

41

15

Blocks

9

9

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

9

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -112/SJ -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Jackson LaCombeANA · D
    DIST MI47.993

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR