Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

ANA

41-29-5

35-31-7

NHLWed, Apr 1FinalSeriesSJ leads series 2-1VegasANA -112

ANA · top performer

Troy Terry

RW · #19

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	1	5	0	2	0	19:48
N. GaucherC · #41	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	7:08
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:30
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	-1	2	0	0	2	17:29
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:22
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	8:44
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	0	0	2	0	3	0	16:37
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	13:56
T. TerryRW · #19	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	19:21
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	-1	1	2	1	2	10:31
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	13:24
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	16:35

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	26:13
D. HellesonD · #14	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	11:54
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	23:23
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:24
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	21:32
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	11:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	21	4	17	.810	59:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	2	2	3	4	0	1	0	24:03
T. DellandreaC · #10	0	0	-1	3	6	1	2	9:33
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	15:44
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:45
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	11:26
C. GrafRW · #51	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	19:50
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:18
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	0	2	0	5	9:37
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-2	3	4	0	0	15:04
W. SmithC · #2	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	18:31
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:28
A. WennbergC · #21	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	-2	0	1	2	2	19:16
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	20:36
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:48
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:48
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:00
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	-1	1	2	0	2	18:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	31	3	28	.903	59:15

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ leads series 2-1

Oct 12

ANA7@

SJ6

Dec 30

SJ5@

ANA4

Apr 2

ANA3@

SJ4today

Apr 10

SJ1@

ANA6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-11253%

SJ-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat ANA 4-3. M. Celebrini led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	1	1	1	3
SJ	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · SJ won 1

ANA

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 3·SJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 3·SJ 4
3rd·19:59
Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Vincent Desharnais
·
ANA 3·SJ 4
3rd·19:29
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
ANA 3·SJ 4
3rd·19:29
Alexander Wennberg Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (65), Sam Dickinson (12)
· ·
ANA 3·SJ 4
3rd·18:21
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
ANA 3·SJ 3
3rd·18:21
Macklin Celebrini Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (29), Will Smith (32)
· ·
ANA 3·SJ 3
3rd·17:59
Dmitry Orlov Slap Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·17:51
Will Smith Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·17:16
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·17:16
Puck in Benches
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:57
Michael Misa faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:57
Icing
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:54
Kiefer Sherwood hit Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:33
Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:32
Michael Misa faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:32
Puck in Netting
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:29
Michael Misa shot blocked by John Carlson
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:19
Dmitry Orlov hit Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·16:18
Jeffrey Viel Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·15:54
John Carlson Slap Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·15:13
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:57
Nick Leddy shot blocked by Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:55
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:55
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:54
Macklin Celebrini Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:49
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:49
Icing
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:16
Tim Washe faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
ANA 3·SJ 2
3rd·14:16
Goalie Stopped
ANA 3·SJ 2

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -112/SJ -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Anaheim Ducks, 4–3.

SJ +1.5 cashed (ANA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.2%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.2%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL