Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at LA?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

STL

31-31-12

30-26-18

NHLWed, Apr 1FinalSeriesLA wins series 3-0VegasLA -155

STL · top performer

Robert Thomas

C · #18

1Points

—

SOG

LA · top performer

Trevor Moore

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	17:07
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	18:37
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	15:08
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	7:55
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	18:13
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	16:50
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:14
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:38
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:50
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	13:40
R. ThomasC · #18	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	20:21
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	8:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	23:16
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:16
J. HollD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:07
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:59
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	21:01
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-1	2	2	4	0	23:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	26	2	24	.923	61:56

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	13:06
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	20:52
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8:32
A. KempeRW · #9	1	0	0	5	1	1	0	18:37
A. KopitarC · #11	0	1	1	1	1	5	0	20:47
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	-1	3	2	1	0	19:56
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:29
T. MooreLW · #12	1	0	0	6	2	1	0	17:44
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:01
A. TurcotteC · #15	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:38
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	5:36
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	11:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	-1	0	2	3	0	20:30
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:22
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	21:10
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	22:20
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	17:48
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	19:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ForsbergG · #31	24	1	23	.958	61:56

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA wins series 3-0

Oct 22

LA2@

STL1

Jan 25

LA5@

STL4

Apr 2

STL1@

LA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+13043%

LA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 45 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat STL 2-1. T. Moore led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
STL	0	0	1	0	1
LA	0	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

STL won 1 · LA won 2

STL

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:56
Game End
STL 1·LA 2
OT·1:56
End of OT
STL 1·LA 2
OT·1:56
Trevor Moore Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (23), Drew Doughty (17)
· ·
STL 1·LA 2
OT·1:25
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Brandt Clarke
·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·1:01
Quinton Byfield Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:50
Dylan Holloway shot blocked by Brandt Clarke
· ·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:40
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:34
Dylan Holloway Wrist Shot saved by Anton Forsberg
· ·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:22
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Adrian Kempe
·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:11
Giveaway by Adrian Kempe
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:00
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 1·LA 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·19:33
Pius Suter faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·19:33
Puck in Netting
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·19:31
Drew Doughty shot blocked by Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:54
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:54
Logan Mailloux Tripping against Artemi Panarin
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:38
Anze Kopitar hit Robert Thomas
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:22
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Anze Kopitar
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:22
Puck in Netting
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:20
Dylan Holloway shot blocked by Mikey Anderson
· ·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:19
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Alex Laferriere
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:19
Puck in Benches
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·17:14
Pius Suter Backhand High and Wide Left
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·16:23
Giveaway by Brian Dumoulin
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·16:12
Joel Armia faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·16:12
Puck in Benches
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·16:07
Joel Armia faceoff won against Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 1·LA 1
3rd·16:07
Robert Thomas Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Philip Broberg (23), Dylan Holloway (21)
· ·
STL 1·LA 1

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +130/LA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings held off St. Louis Blues, 2–1 in overtime.

STL +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.5%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(LA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(LA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.5%
P(LA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at LA?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesLos Angeles Kings

Elsewhere in the NHL