Live · 2
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1CAR
BUF

BUF

26-17-5

12
CAR

CAR

31-15-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-1VegasCAR -185

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Buffalo Sabres, 2–1.

BUF +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Jack Quinn

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
2
BUF26-17-5CAR31-15-4
BUF

BUF

26-17-5

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

31-15-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Season series

CAR wins series 2-1

Nov 9BUFBUF3@CARCAR6
Nov 23CARCAR1@BUFBUF4
Jan 19BUFBUF1@CARCAR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+15439%
CARCAR-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat BUF 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1001
CAR1012

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · CAR won 1

1
1

1

0
0

2

0
1

3

BUF
CAR

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Icing

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Takeaway by Jaccob Slavin

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  6. 3rd·19:50

    Giveaway by Jordan Martinook

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  7. 3rd·19:42

    Tage Thompson Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  8. 3rd·19:38

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  9. 3rd·19:10

    Jason Zucker faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  10. 3rd·19:10

    Icing

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  11. 3rd·19:05

    Jordan Staal Wrist Shot Wide Right

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  12. 3rd·18:33

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  13. 3rd·18:33

    On-Ice Official

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  14. 3rd·18:33

    Off-side

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  15. 3rd·18:14

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  16. 3rd·18:09

    Giveaway by Josh Doan

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  17. 3rd·17:31

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  18. 3rd·17:31

    On-Ice Official

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  19. 3rd·17:31

    Ryan McLeod Tripping against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  20. 3rd·17:31

    Andrei Svechnikov Roughing against Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  21. 3rd·17:22

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  22. 3rd·17:22

    Icing

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  23. 3rd·16:57

    Mattias Samuelsson shot blocked by Mark Jankowski

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  24. 3rd·16:43

    Mattias Samuelsson Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  25. 3rd·16:16

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  26. 3rd·16:16

    Icing

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  27. 3rd·16:03

    Giveaway by Sean Walker

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  28. 3rd·15:51

    Giveaway by Tage Thompson

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  29. 3rd·15:47

    Josh Doan hit Seth Jarvis

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

  30. 3rd·15:38

    Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·CAR 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

18

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

50.0

8

PIM

6

22

Faceoffs W

26

12

Blocks

6

20

Giveaways

17

6

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +154/CAR -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795
  • Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
    BURSTS3995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR