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FINAL+1CAR
CAR

CAR

19-9-2

32
WSH

WSH

18-9-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 11FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCAR -115

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Washington Capitals and beat them, 3–2.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Connor McMichael

Connor McMichael

C · #24

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
2
CAR19-9-2WSH18-9-4
CAR

CAR

19-9-2

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

18-9-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

PIM

9

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 12WSHWSH4@CARCAR1
Dec 12CARCAR3@WSHWSH2today
Jan 31CARCAR3@WSHWSH4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-11553%
WSHWSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat WSH 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
CAR011013
WSH011002

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · WSH won 0

0
0

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

CAR
WSH

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Sonny Milano Backhand saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Andrei Svechnikov Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Seth Jarvis Goal Snap Shot

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 1·WSH 0

  9. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    CAR 0·WSH 0

  10. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  11. OT·4:56

    Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  12. OT·4:09

    Aliaksei Protas Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  13. OT·3:46

    Takeaway by K'Andre Miller

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  14. OT·3:15

    Seth Jarvis shot blocked by Alex Ovechkin

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  15. OT·2:57

    Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  16. OT·2:18

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Andrei Svechnikov

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  17. OT·2:18

    Puck in Netting

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  18. OT·2:16

    Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  19. OT·1:24

    Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  20. OT·1:21

    Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  21. OT·0:00

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  22. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  23. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  24. 3rd·19:59

    Justin Sourdif hit Sean Walker

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  25. 3rd·19:20

    Giveaway by Seth Jarvis

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  26. 3rd·18:12

    Giveaway by Nikolaj Ehlers

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  27. 3rd·17:54

    Jordan Staal hit Nic Dowd

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  28. 3rd·17:45

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  29. 3rd·17:45

    Logan Stankoven Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (14), Jalen Chatfield (5)

    · ·

    CAR 2·WSH 2

  30. 3rd·17:39

    Takeaway by Jalen Chatfield

    CAR 1·WSH 2

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

39

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

0.0

7

PIM

9

30

Faceoffs W

16

10

Blocks

21

16

Giveaways

10

7

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -115/WSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR