NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

NYI

25-15-5

MIN

26-11-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -155

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

NYI +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

Simon Holmstrom

RW · #10

3Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

NYI25-15-5

MIN26-11-9

NYI25-15-5MIN26-11-9

NYI

25-15-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

MIN

26-11-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 8

MIN5@

NYI2

Jan 11

NYI4@

MIN3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+13043%

MIN-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat MIN 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
NYI	1	2	0	1	4
MIN	2	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

NYI won 2 · MIN won 1

NYI

MIN

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:34
Game End
NYI 4·MIN 3
OT·1:34
End of OT
NYI 4·MIN 3
OT·1:34
Simon Holmstrom Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tony DeAngelo (17), Jonathan Drouin (17)
· ·
NYI 4·MIN 3
OT·1:02
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
OT·0:00
Nico Sturm faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:28
Adam Pelech hit Matt Boldy
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:15
Simon Holmstrom Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:08
Takeaway by Ryan Pulock
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·19:07
Ryan Pulock hit Kirill Kaprizov
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·18:21
Scott Mayfield shot blocked by Marcus Foligno
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:59
Marcus Foligno hit Ryan Pulock
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:53
Jake Middleton Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Vladimir Tarasenko
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Matt Boldy
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:11
Anders Lee faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:11
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·17:09
Anders Lee Tip-In saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:58
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:54
Ryan Hartman Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:52
Matt Boldy shot blocked by Scott Mayfield
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:49
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Mathew Barzal
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:49
Goalie Stopped
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:47
Quinn Hughes Backhand saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:31
Quinn Hughes Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:26
Mats Zuccarello Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:24
Brock Faber Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:15
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 3·MIN 3
3rd·16:14
Giveaway by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
NYI 3·MIN 3

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYI +130/MIN -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIN vs NYI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high
Ryan HartmanMIN
3.0± 2.3high

Goals

Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
0.4± 0.7high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Mats ZuccarelloMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands