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FINAL+2BUF
VAN

VAN

16-21-5

35
BUF

BUF

22-15-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Jan 6FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -170

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Vancouver Canucks, 5–3.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VAN · top performer

VAN
Brock Boeser

Brock Boeser

RW · #6

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Alex Tuch

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
VAN16-21-5BUF22-15-4
VAN

VAN

16-21-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

22-15-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

8

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Dec 12BUFBUF3@VANVAN2
Jan 7VANVAN3@BUFBUF5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VANVAN+14241%
BUFBUF-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat VAN 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VAN0033
BUF2125

Period scoring

VAN won 1 · BUF won 2

0
2

1

0
1

2

3
2

3

VAN
BUF

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    · ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  5. 3rd·19:54

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  6. 3rd·19:43

    Evander Kane shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  7. 3rd·19:38

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  8. 3rd·19:32

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  9. 3rd·19:32

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  10. 3rd·19:30

    Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  11. 3rd·19:29

    Zeev Buium shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  12. 3rd·19:24

    Evander Kane Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  13. 3rd·19:22

    Brock Boeser Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  14. 3rd·19:13

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  15. 3rd·19:13

    Goalie Stopped

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  16. 3rd·19:11

    Kiefer Sherwood Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  17. 3rd·19:04

    Max Sasson Tip-In saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  18. 3rd·18:36

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Max Sasson

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  19. 3rd·18:36

    Josh Doan Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    VAN 3·BUF 5

  20. 3rd·18:18

    Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    · ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·18:18

    Puck in Benches

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Ryan McLeod

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  23. 3rd·17:08

    Tom Willander shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  24. 3rd·16:23

    Evander Kane Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  25. 3rd·16:18

    Evander Kane Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  26. 3rd·16:07

    Peyton Krebs hit Evander Kane

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  27. 3rd·16:03

    Tage Thompson hit Pierre-Olivier Joseph

    ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  28. 3rd·16:02

    Giveaway by Josh Doan

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  29. 3rd·15:55

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Elias Pettersson

    · ·

    VAN 3·BUF 4

  30. 3rd·15:55

    Timeout - Home

    VAN 3·BUF 4

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

37

Shots

20

25.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

8

26

Faceoffs W

30

8

Blocks

14

16

Giveaways

15

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +142/BUF -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Brock BoeserVAN · RW
    SHOT MPH96.498
  • Filip HronekVAN · D
    DIST MI292.398
  • Jake DeBruskVAN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.595
  • Nils HoglanderVAN · LW
    SHOT MPH93.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-170

Close price

-170

Open no-vig

60.4%

Close no-vig

60.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR