NCAA Basketball·Model picks
Per-game NCAA Basketball model picks roll out league by league as the rating engine settles. MLB shipped first because of sample size. Each league lights up here once its rating engine and closing-line ingest are both stable.
NCAA Basketball picks coming soon
Per-game model picks for NCAA Basketball land here once the rating engine + closing-line ingest are stable for this league. Until then, the NCAA Basketball edge surface shows where the market and our power-rank derivative disagree.
See NCAA Basketball edges →Why MLB shipped first
Baseball's sample size is enormous (162 games per team) and the rating engine settles fast. Other leagues need either a deeper covariate set (NBA pace, NFL injury context) or a larger pre-season corpus before our Elo derivative beats the consumer-site benchmark we hold ourselves to. We'd rather ship picks late than ship picks that would lose your money.
Read the methodology →NCAA Basketball betting markets
College basketball markets are massive (~350 D-I teams, 30+ games per night during the season) and sharp money concentrates on top-25 matchups. Edges live in mid-major matchups where injury info is harder to get.
What the NCAA Basketball model will weight
When NCAA Basketball model picks ship, the rating engine will weight the factors below. The shape mirrors the MLB model that's live today, which back-tested at 55% on 2,932 games. The full methodology is at /methodology.
Sharp angles · NCAA Basketball
These are the recurring patterns sharp NCAA Basketball bettors actually work. Each one has shown up in the post-mortem of multiple winning weeks. Treat them as a starting point for handicapping, not a substitute for it.
What you can use right now