Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CLE?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9CLE

DET

60-22

103112

CLE

52-30

NBAMon, May 11FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCLE -3.5

DET · top performer

Caris LeVert

G · #8

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

32.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:47

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	36	16	6-17	2-5	2-2	-12	8	5
D. RobinsonF · #55	29	4	1-2	1-2	1-2	-19	1	1
J. DurenC · #0	27	8	4-8	—	—	-12	2	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	39	19	7-16	2-5	3-3	-23	3	6
A. ThompsonG · #9	19	4	2-3	—	—	-27	4	1
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	14	15	7-9	1-2	0-2	-3	4	2
I. StewartF · #28	7	4	2-3	—	—	+6	3	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	+11	3	0
J. GreenG · #31	6	0	—	—	—	+5	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	31	24	10-16	3-6	1-1	+15	4	3
M. SasserG · #25	3	7	3-4	1-2	—	+8	0	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	21	2	0-4	—	2-2	+6	3	3
Team		103	42-83	10-23	9-12		35	23
DNP: T. Smith, C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	23	0	0-1	—	—	+20	5	0
J. AllenC · #31	32	9	3-6	—	3-4	+5	5	1
E. MobleyC · #4	39	17	6-11	1-4	4-4	+30	8	5
J. HardenG · #1	37	24	5-14	5-9	9-9	+9	0	11
D. MitchellG · #45	37	43	13-26	4-12	13-15	+28	5	2
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	0	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
T. BryantC · #3	0	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
D. SchroderG · #8	20	7	3-4	1-2	—	-14	2	0
M. StrusG · #2	27	5	2-7	1-6	—	-12	4	2
S. MerrillG · #5	16	6	2-8	2-7	—	+6	1	2
J. TysonG · #20	8	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-7	3	0
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	0	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
K. EllisG · #14	0	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
T. ProctorG · #24	0	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
Team		112	34-78	14-41	30-34		33	23
DNP: L. Nance Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

42-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-78

FG %

10-23

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-41

9-12

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

30-34

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112today

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+14042%

CLE-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat DET 112-103. D. Mitchell led the way with 43 points and 5 rebounds. CLE outscored the other side 38-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST

GS 31

Bench(7)

52 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 45

CLEstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 88

Bench(9)

19 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE2nd Quarter · 8:04 · 33-35

+9pp→ 50% WP

Sam Merrill · makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)

DET2nd Quarter · 3:46 · 42-41

+8pp→ 60% WP

Max Strus · out of bounds lost ball turnover

CLE2nd Quarter · 6:47 · 35-35

+11pp→ 43% WP

Dean Wade · lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	24	32	21	26	103
CLE	21	31	38	22	112

Period scoring

DET won 3 · CLE won 1

LeVert 8

Harden 11

LeVert 9

Mobley 7

Reed 13

Mitchell 21

Cunningham 7

Mitchell 18

DET

CLE

Shooting comparison

DET

CLE

51%

42-83

44%

34-78

43%

10-23

3PT

34%

14-41

75%

9-12

88%

30-34

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·0.1
Paul Reed offensive rebound
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·3.0
Paul Reed misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·5.2
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·8.6
Marcus Sasser misses running pullup jump shot
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·11.7
Evan Mobley bad pass turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)
·
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·11.7
Ronald Holland II vs. James Harden (Paul Reed gains possession)
· ·
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·18.0
Marcus Sasser makes driving layup
DET 103·CLE 112
Q4·26.0
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
DET 101·CLE 112
Q4·27.5
Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 101·CLE 112
Q4·27.5
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 101·CLE 112
Q4·27.5
Javonte Green personal foul
DET 101·CLE 111
Q4·35.4
Ronald Holland II lost ball turnover (Dennis Schroder steals)
·
DET 101·CLE 111
Q4·42.7
Evan Mobley makes dunk
DET 101·CLE 111
Q4·42.7
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
DET 101·CLE 109
+0.9pp
Q4·43.3
Donovan Mitchell misses driving layup
DET 101·CLE 109
−0.7pp
Q4·49.7
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Nae'Qwan Tomlin
·
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·49.7
Sam Merrill enters the game for Tyrese Proctor
·
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·49.7
Donovan Mitchell enters the game for Craig Porter Jr.
·
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·49.7
Evan Mobley enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·49.7
James Harden enters the game for Thomas Bryant
·
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·49.7
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·49.7
Marcus Sasser makes running layup (Paul Reed assists)
·
DET 101·CLE 109
Q4·51.8
Tyrese Proctor lost ball turnover (Marcus Sasser steals)
·
DET 99·CLE 109
Q4·58.1
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 99·CLE 109
Q4·59.6
Paul Reed makes 1-foot running dunk
DET 99·CLE 109
Q4·1:00
Craig Porter Jr. bad pass turnover (Paul Reed steals)
·
DET 97·CLE 109
Q4·1:09
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Max Strus
·
DET 97·CLE 109
Q4·1:09
Tyrese Proctor enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
DET 97·CLE 109

Betting line

CLE -3.5·O/U 213.5·DET +140/CLE -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Detroit Pistons, 112–103.

CLE -3.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 213.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(CLE win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
49.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
55.4%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at CLE?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CLE

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

115.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Team pages

Detroit PistonsCleveland Cavaliers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Thunder115Lakers110Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR