DET
60-22
CLE
52-30
53.4%
DET wins · current
Pre-game: 57.0% CLE
DET 56 · 52 CLE
DET +4
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q2Key moments · live
newest firstThe receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+136
Close price
+136
Open no-vig
40.7%
Close no-vig
40.7%
Line barely moved
DET · top performer
Tobias Harris
F · #12
14
Pts
8
Reb
3
Ast
CLE · top performer
James Harden
G · #1
15
Pts
0
Reb
6
Ast
NBA · Box score
DET
60-22
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 18 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +6 | |
DRIVES755 CONT4.952 TOUCHES58.748 | ||||||||
| 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | |
CONT994 TOUCHES4524 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 20 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
DRIVES1999+ TOUCHES9799+ CONT6.779 | ||||||||
| 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | |
| 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +14 | |
| Team | 56 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 10 | ||
| DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, M. Sasser, C. Lanier | ||||||||
CLE
52-30
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | |
| 21 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | |
CONT9.497 DEFL2.670 TOUCHES63.659 | ||||||||
| 18 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | |
DRIVES12.676 TOUCHES70.370 DEFL2.670 | ||||||||
| 19 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | |
DRIVES12.371 TOUCHES63.659 DEFL1.512 | ||||||||
| 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | |
| 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | |
| 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7 | |
| Team | 52 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 8 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
55
FG %
39
12
Ast
12
Playoff series
DET leads series 2-1
CLE101@DET111CLE97@DET107DET109@CLE116DET@CLEtodayCLE@DETupcomingDET@CLEupcomingCLE@DETupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
213.5
Defensive · -12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET+14042%CLE-16662%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
213.5
+1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
HalftimeRecent swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:47
End of the 2nd Quarter
DETT. Harris
FLeading · Halftime · 18 min
14 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST
On pace: 37 PTS · 21 REB · 8 AST
CLEJ. Harden
GLeading · Halftime · 18 min
15 PTS · 0 REB · 6 AST
On pace: 40 PTS · 0 REB · 16 AST
How it's going
DET lead CLE 56-52 (Halftime). T. Harris led with 14 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST.
Win probability
CLE vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 63% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST
GS 27
Bench(5)
21 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
GS 15
CLEstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
35 PTS · 8 REB · 10 AST
GS 32
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 13
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSam Merrill · makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)
Max Strus · out of bounds lost ball turnover
Dean Wade · lost ball turnover
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 24 | 32 | 56 |
| CLE | 21 | 31 | 52 |
Period scoring
DET won 2 · CLE won 0
Q1
LeVert 8
Harden 11
Q2
LeVert 9
Mobley 7
Shooting comparison
55%
23-42
FG
39%
15-38
50%
6-12
3PT
36%
9-25
80%
4-5
FT
81%
13-16
Play-by-play · 222 plays
End of the 2nd Quarter
DET 56·CLE 52
+2pp
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 56·CLE 52
−3pp
Cade Cunningham misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
DET 56·CLE 52
+3pp
Evan Mobley makes dunk (James Harden assists)
·
DET 56·CLE 52
+3pp
Tobias Harris makes driving layup
DET 56·CLE 50
−3pp
Donovan Mitchell out of bounds lost ball turnover
DET 54·CLE 50
−4pp
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 54·CLE 50
+3pp
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 53·CLE 50
−0.8pp
Max Strus personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 52·CLE 50
−5pp
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 52·CLE 50
−2pp
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 52·CLE 49
+0.9pp
Caris LeVert shooting foul
DET 52·CLE 48
+4pp
Max Strus offensive rebound
DET 52·CLE 48
+3pp
Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 52·CLE 48
−3pp
Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 52·CLE 48
−6pp
Tobias Harris offensive rebound
DET 49·CLE 48
−3pp
Caris LeVert misses 25-foot three point jumper
DET 49·CLE 48
+3pp
Tobias Harris offensive rebound
DET 49·CLE 48
−3pp
Caris LeVert misses tip shot
DET 49·CLE 48
+3pp
Caris LeVert offensive rebound
DET 49·CLE 48
−3pp
Cade Cunningham misses 9-foot two point shot
DET 49·CLE 48
+3pp
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 49·CLE 48
−3pp
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DET 49·CLE 47
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 49·CLE 47
+4pp
Jalen Duren shooting foul
DET 49·CLE 46
+3pp
Jarrett Allen offensive rebound
DET 49·CLE 46
+2pp
Max Strus misses 25-foot three point jumper
DET 49·CLE 46
−2pp
Tobias Harris makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
DET 49·CLE 46
−4pp
Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 47·CLE 46
+6pp
Cade Cunningham makes 12-foot step back jumpshot
DET 47·CLE 43
−3pp
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
23-42
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
15-38
55
FG %
39
6-12
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-25
4-5
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-16
12
Assists
12
10
Turnovers
8
Betting line
CLE -3.5·O/U 213.5·DET +140/CLE -166
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
57.9%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
57.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
55.4%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.1%
P(CLE win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
2.42 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
