CLE
52-30
DET
60-22
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 107–97.
DET -3.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CLE · top performer
Jarrett Allen
C · #31
22
Pts
7
Reb
3
Ast
DET · top performer
Cade Cunningham
G · #2
25
Pts
3
Reb
10
Ast
NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-4 | — | -4 | 5 | 0 | |
| 31 | 22 | 7-9 | — | 8-10 | -6 | 7 | 3 | |
| 36 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-4 | — | -6 | 1 | 4 | |
| 37 | 10 | 3-13 | 0-4 | 4-4 | -15 | 6 | 3 | |
| 37 | 31 | 11-24 | 2-9 | 7-9 | -2 | 6 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -4 | 3 | 5 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-6 | — | -9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -3 | 5 | 1 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 97 | 34-81 | 7-32 | 22-27 | 36 | 20 | ||
| DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, S. Merrill, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor | ||||||||
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, S. Merrill, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 21 | 9-16 | 2-3 | 1-2 | +8 | 7 | 0 | |
| 37 | 17 | 6-12 | 5-9 | — | +5 | 3 | 3 | |
| 33 | 8 | 2-7 | — | 4-6 | +6 | 10 | 1 | |
| 42 | 25 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 8-8 | +13 | 3 | 10 | |
| 24 | 10 | 5-8 | — | 0-2 | +4 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 26 | 14 | 6-14 | 2-5 | — | +9 | 6 | 4 | |
| Team | 107 | 39-80 | 14-28 | 15-20 | 42 | 21 | ||
| DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, M. Sasser, C. Lanier | ||||||||
DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, M. Sasser, C. Lanier
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
42
FG %
49
20
Ast
21
Playoff series
DET leads series 2-0
CLE101@DET111CLE97@DET107todayDET109@CLE116DET103@CLE112CLE117@DET113DET115@CLE94CLE125@DET94Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
214.5
Defensive · -11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CLE+13642%DET-16262%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
214.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 5:14
CLEJ. Allen
CGame leader · 31 min
22 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST
DETC. Cunningham
GGame leader · 42 minDouble-double
25 PTS · 3 REB · 10 AST
How it ended
DET beat CLE 107-97. C. Cunningham paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 10 AST.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs CLE
Starters vs bench
production by unitCLEstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
80 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST
GS 60
Bench(4)
17 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST
GS 13
DETstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 70
Bench(5)
26 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 21
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMax Strus · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)
Duncan Robinson · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Ausar Thompson assists)
Cade Cunningham · makes 26-foot three pointer
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 18 | 25 | 32 | 22 | 97 |
| DET | 25 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 107 |
Period scoring
CLE won 1 · DET won 3
Q1
Mitchell 8
Thompson 8
Q2
Harden 8
Jenkins 7
Q3
Mitchell 11
Thompson 18
Q4
Mitchell 8
Cunningham 12
Shooting comparison
42%
34-81
FG
49%
39-80
22%
7-32
3PT
50%
14-28
81%
22-27
FT
75%
15-20
Play-by-play · 462 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 97·DET 107
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 97·DET 107
- Q4·12.2
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
CLE 97·DET 107
- Q4·14.0
Evan Mobley misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 97·DET 107
- Q4·22.7
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 97·DET 107
- Q4·22.7
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 97·DET 106
- Q4·22.7
Donovan Mitchell loose ball foul
CLE 97·DET 105
- Q4·22.7
Pistons defensive team rebound
CLE 97·DET 105
- Q4·24.0
Max Strus misses 30-foot three point jumper
CLE 97·DET 105
+0.6pp
- Q4·26.8
Dean Wade enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 97·DET 105
- Q4·26.8
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
CLE 97·DET 105
- Q4·26.8
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 97·DET 105
- Q4·26.8
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 97·DET 105
−0.6pp
- Q4·26.8
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
CLE 97·DET 104
- Q4·26.8
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 97·DET 104
- Q4·26.8
Jarrett Allen personal take foul
CLE 97·DET 103
- Q4·29.2
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
CLE 97·DET 103
- Q4·29.2
Evan Mobley personal take foul
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
- Q4·33.3
James Harden lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
CLE 97·DET 103
+3pp
- Q4·52.5
(00:52.5) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
- Q4·52.5
shot clock turnover
CLE 97·DET 103
−3pp
- Q4·53.6
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
- Q4·54.6
Max Strus blocks Daniss Jenkins 's 8-foot pullup jump shot
·
CLE 97·DET 103
−1pp
- Q4·1:16
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
- Q4·1:16
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 96·DET 103
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:16
Ausar Thompson personal foul
CLE 95·DET 103
−3pp
- Q4·1:22
Ausar Thompson makes tip shot
CLE 95·DET 103
+2pp
- Q4·1:23
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
CLE 95·DET 101
+2pp
- Q4·1:24
Daniss Jenkins misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 95·DET 101
−2pp
- Q4·1:25
Daniss Jenkins offensive rebound
CLE 95·DET 101
+2pp
Team stats
CLE
Away
Stat
DET
Home
34-81
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
39-80
42
FG %
49
7-32
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-28
22-27
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-20
20
Assists
21
11
Turnovers
10
Betting line
DET -3.5·O/U 214.5·CLE +136/DET -162
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Cade CunninghamDET · GDRIVES1999+
Donovan MitchellCLE · GUSG%31.998- Jarrett AllenCLE · CCONT9.898
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Evan MobleyCLE · CCONT9.498
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.1%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
62.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.1%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.41 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
84% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.13
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-162
Close price
-148
Open no-vig
59.3%
Close no-vig
57.2%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit
Player projections
DET vs CLE.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
- Donovan MitchellCLE27.5± 7.3high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- James HardenCLE19.6± 6.6high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Evan MobleyCLE8.0± 3.5high
- Jarrett AllenCLE7.3± 2.3high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- James HardenCLE5.9± 2.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE3.9± 2.0high
Blocks
- Evan MobleyCLE2.1± 1.3high
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jarrett AllenCLE1.3± 0.7high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Donovan MitchellCLE1.5± 1.8high
- James HardenCLE1.4± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
CLE
league avg
DET
55.6%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
48.0%
117.4
PPG
114.9
115.9
27.1
Assists / G
25.0
27.0
13.8
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3