Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10DET

CLE

52-30

97107

DET

60-22

NBAThu, May 7FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -3.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 5:14

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	23	8	3-6	2-4	—	-4	5	0
J. AllenC · #31	31	22	7-9	—	8-10	-6	7	3
E. MobleyC · #4	36	9	4-10	1-4	—	-6	1	4
J. HardenG · #1	37	10	3-13	0-4	4-4	-15	6	3
D. MitchellG · #45	37	31	11-24	2-9	7-9	-2	6	3
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	20	4	1-5	0-2	2-2	-4	3	5
M. StrusG · #2	28	3	1-6	1-6	—	-9	3	1
J. TysonG · #20	22	7	3-7	0-2	1-2	-3	5	1
K. EllisG · #14	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	0	0
Team		97	34-81	7-32	22-27		36	20
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, S. Merrill, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	37	21	9-16	2-3	1-2	+8	7	0
D. RobinsonF · #55	37	17	6-12	5-9	—	+5	3	3
J. DurenC · #0	33	8	2-7	—	4-6	+6	10	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	42	25	7-14	3-6	8-8	+13	3	10
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	10	5-8	—	0-2	+4	7	2
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	15	2	1-1	—	—	+4	2	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	9	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	+2	2	0
J. GreenG · #31	4	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	13	8	3-5	2-3	—	-1	2	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	26	14	6-14	2-5	—	+9	6	4
Team		107	39-80	14-28	15-20		42	21
DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

34-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-80

FG %

7-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-28

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

DET leads series 2-0

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107today

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+13642%

DET-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -3.5↗SpreadBet DET -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CLE 107-97. C. Cunningham paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 10 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 60

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

GS 13

DETstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE3rd Quarter · 2:06 · 71-72

+9pp→ 31% WP

Max Strus · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)

DET4th Quarter · 9:40 · 81-84

+9pp→ 72% WP

Duncan Robinson · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Ausar Thompson assists)

DET4th Quarter · 5:47 · 87-92

+10pp→ 83% WP

Cade Cunningham · makes 26-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	18	25	32	22	97
DET	25	29	25	28	107

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · DET won 3

Mitchell 8

Thompson 8

Harden 8

Jenkins 7

Mitchell 11

Thompson 18

Mitchell 8

Cunningham 12

CLE

DET

Shooting comparison

CLE

DET

42%

34-81

49%

39-80

22%

7-32

3PT

50%

14-28

81%

22-27

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 97·DET 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 97·DET 107
Q4·12.2
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
CLE 97·DET 107
Q4·14.0
Evan Mobley misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 97·DET 107
Q4·22.7
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 97·DET 107
Q4·22.7
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 97·DET 106
Q4·22.7
Donovan Mitchell loose ball foul
CLE 97·DET 105
Q4·22.7
Pistons defensive team rebound
CLE 97·DET 105
Q4·24.0
Max Strus misses 30-foot three point jumper
CLE 97·DET 105
+0.6pp
Q4·26.8
Dean Wade enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 97·DET 105
Q4·26.8
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
CLE 97·DET 105
Q4·26.8
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 97·DET 105
Q4·26.8
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 97·DET 105
−0.6pp
Q4·26.8
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
CLE 97·DET 104
Q4·26.8
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 97·DET 104
Q4·26.8
Jarrett Allen personal take foul
CLE 97·DET 103
Q4·29.2
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
CLE 97·DET 103
Q4·29.2
Evan Mobley personal take foul
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
Q4·33.3
James Harden lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
CLE 97·DET 103
+3pp
Q4·52.5
(00:52.5) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
Q4·52.5
shot clock turnover
CLE 97·DET 103
−3pp
Q4·53.6
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
Q4·54.6
Max Strus blocks Daniss Jenkins 's 8-foot pullup jump shot
·
CLE 97·DET 103
−1pp
Q4·1:16
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 97·DET 103
+2pp
Q4·1:16
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 96·DET 103
−0.7pp
Q4·1:16
Ausar Thompson personal foul
CLE 95·DET 103
−3pp
Q4·1:22
Ausar Thompson makes tip shot
CLE 95·DET 103
+2pp
Q4·1:23
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
CLE 95·DET 101
+2pp
Q4·1:24
Daniss Jenkins misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 95·DET 101
−2pp
Q4·1:25
Daniss Jenkins offensive rebound
CLE 95·DET 101
+2pp

Betting line

DET -3.5·O/U 214.5·CLE +136/DET -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 107–97.

DET -3.5 cashed (won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
62.0%
P(DET win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
66.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
60.5%
P(DET win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.13

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-162

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

DET

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Team pages

Cleveland CavaliersDetroit Pistons

Elsewhere in the NBA

Lakers107Thunder125Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR