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  • MLBBot 7
    DET 6@KC 3
    -56.0pplow
  • NBA8:49 - 4th
    SA 94@MIN 86
    -41.0pphigh
  • WNBA5:09 - 3rd
    PHX 43@GS 54
  • NHL7:47 - 3rd
    BUF 2@MTL 5
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THE ONE Analytics
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SA logo
SA
94
Live8:49 - 4th
MIN logo
MIN
86
Updated 9:45 PM ET
8:49 - 4TH+8SA↑
SA

SA

62-20

94
86
MIN

MIN

49-33

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Rudy GobertMIN · C
    CONT1299+
  • De'Aaron FoxSA · G
    DRIVES14.885
  • Stephon CastleSA · G
    TOUCHES71.573
Live · model lean8:49 - 4thPolls every 30s

59.7%

SA wins · current

Pre-game: 56.5% MIN

SA 94 · 86 MIN

SA +8

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Q4
away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingSA3rd Quarter · 6:44 · 68-66
    +6pp→ 70% WP

    Jaden McDaniels · shooting foul

  • ↑SwingSA2nd Quarter · 3:07 · 48-52
    +6pp→ 45% WP

    Stephon Castle · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)

  • ↑SwingMIN2nd Quarter · 4:59 · 42-49
    +7pp→ 61% WP

    Ayo Dosunmu · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)

  • ↺Lead flipMIN2nd Quarter · 8:39 · 34-37
    +8pp→ 52% WP

    Naz Reid · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2

  • ↑SwingSA2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 30-34
    +8pp→ 50% WP

    Carter Bryant · enters the game for Keldon Johnson

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props

↳ Data via ESPN · hoopR

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 58-37
59%Last 30 · 254-176
Receipts →

Live · model intelligence

86% confidence

Win prob · home

15.5%

-41.0ppvs pre-game · SA favored

Leverage

63

high

One swing game

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market faded the model

NBA·Sun, May 10·8:49 - 4th/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasSA -5.5
Updated 0s ago

SA · top performer

SA
Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle

G · #5

18.3Game score

20

Pts

6

Reb

3

Ast

MIN · top performer

MIN
Anthony Edwards

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

14.3Game score

24

Pts

4

Reb

2

Ast

NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves · live

NBA · Box score

8:49 - 4th
SA62-20
94
86
MIN49-33
SA62-20·MIN49-33
SA

SA

62-20

94
 CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
J. ChampagnieJ. Champagnie★F · #30
23443200+5
V. WembanyamaV. Wembanyama★F · #1
12441002-1
D. FoxD. Fox★G · #4
292243301+6
DRIVES14.885
DEFL379
TOUCHES65.164
D. VassellD. Vassell★G · #24
261113101+13
DEFL2.552
CONT4.130
DRIVES3.818
S. CastleS. Castle★G · #5
292063110+18
TOUCHES71.573
DRIVES12.371
CONT4.848
K. JohnsonK. JohnsonF · #3
15421102-4
C. BryantC. BryantF · #11
12210003-2
L. KornetL. KornetC · #7
20771121+11
D. HarperD. HarperG · #2
201840202-6
Team94331511312
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin
MIN

MIN

49-33

86
 CoreReboundsPlaymakingDefenseDiscipline
PlayerMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTO+/-
J. RandleJ. Randle★F · #30
291253006-1
DRIVES1267
TOUCHES54.936
DEFL235
J. McDanielsJ. McDaniels★F · #3
321250001-18
CONT5.770
DRIVES9.864
TOUCHES58.445
R. GobertR. Gobert★C · #27
25684010-14
CONT1299+
DEFL2.661
TOUCHES44.320
A. DosunmuA. Dosunmu★G · #13
27552201-10
A. EdwardsA. Edwards★G · #5
312442103-13
N. ReidN. ReidC · #11
241182101-1
M. ConleyM. ConleyG · #10
11802001+10
T. Shannon Jr.T. Shannon Jr.G · #1
17812102+7
Team8636175115
DNP: J. Ingles, K. Anderson, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark, B. Hyland

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

53

FG %

43

15

Ast

17

Playoff series

SA leads series 2-1

May 5MINMIN104@SASA102
May 7MINMIN95@SASA133
May 9SASA115@MINMIN108
May 10SASA@MINMINtoday
May 13MINMIN@SASAupcoming
May 15SASA@MINMINupcoming
May 17MINMIN@SASAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SASA-19866%
MINMIN+16438%

↘6· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

+3.0 since open

Live · top performers so far

8:49 - 4th
Game flowSA ↔ MIN

Recent swing: 6pp · 4th Quarter · 8:51

Just happened

Timberwolves Full timeout

SASA
S. Castle

S. Castle

G

Leading · 8:49 - 4th · 29 min

20 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

On pace: 33 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

MINMIN
A. Edwards

A. Edwards

G

Leading · 8:49 - 4th · 31 min

24 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

On pace: 37 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

How it's going

SA lead MIN 94-86 (8:49 - 4th). S. Castle led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. SA have outscored the other side 28-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Win probability

MIN vs SA

0255075100Q2Q3Q4

Starters vs bench

production by unit
SASAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST

GS 26

MINMINstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST

GS 37

Bench(3)

27 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SA2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 30-34
+8pp→ 50% WP

Carter Bryant · enters the game for Keldon Johnson

MIN2nd Quarter · 8:39 · 34-37
+8pp→ 52% WP

Naz Reid · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2

MIN2nd Quarter · 4:59 · 42-49
+7pp→ 61% WP

Ayo Dosunmu · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team1234T
SA3026281094
MIN342620686

Period scoring

SA won 2 · MIN won 1

30
34

Q1

Harper 9

Edwards 11

26
26

Q2

Castle 7

Edwards 7

28
20

Q3

Harper 7

Jr. 8

10
6

Q4

Fox 5

Edwards 4

SA
MIN

Shooting comparison

SA
MIN

53%

37-70

FG

43%

33-76

24%

5-21

3PT

36%

8-22

71%

15-21

FT

86%

12-14

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period
event
player
  1. Q4·8:49

    Timberwolves Full timeout

    SA 94·MIN 86

  2. Q4·8:51

    De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT

    SA 94·MIN 86

    −6pp

  3. Q4·9:02

    Julius Randle enters the game for Naz Reid

    ·

    SA 91·MIN 86

  4. Q4·9:02!

    Naz Reid loose ball foul

    SA 91·MIN 86

    −0.9pp

  5. Q4·9:02

    Spurs offensive team rebound

    SA 91·MIN 86

    −3pp

  6. Q4·9:03

    De'Aaron Fox misses 27-foot three point jumper

    SA 91·MIN 86

    +3pp

  7. Q4·9:12

    Anthony Edwards makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot

    SA 91·MIN 86

    +3pp

  8. Q4·9:25

    Naz Reid defensive rebound

    SA 91·MIN 84

  9. Q4·9:27

    Stephon Castle misses free throw 2 of 2

    SA 91·MIN 84

    +5pp

  10. Q4·9:27

    Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2

    SA 91·MIN 84

  11. Q4·9:27!

    Anthony Edwards shooting foulBIG MOMENT

    SA 90·MIN 84

    −5pp

  12. Q4·9:44

    De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound

    SA 90·MIN 84

    −0.9pp

  13. Q4·9:46

    Ayo Dosunmu misses driving floating jump shot

    SA 90·MIN 84

    −3pp

  14. Q4·10:09

    Harrison Barnes makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Luke Kornet assists)

    ·

    SA 90·MIN 84

    −4pp

  15. Q4·10:25

    Naz Reid makes 5-foot two point shot

    SA 88·MIN 84

    +4pp

  16. Q4·10:34

    Naz Reid defensive rebound

    SA 88·MIN 82

    +0.8pp

  17. Q4·10:37

    Stephon Castle misses 23-foot three point jumper

    SA 88·MIN 82

    +2pp

  18. Q4·10:43

    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound

    SA 88·MIN 82

    −0.8pp

  19. Q4·10:46

    Anthony Edwards misses 6-foot turnaround jump shot

    SA 88·MIN 82

    −3pp

  20. Q4·11:07

    De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot pullup jump shot

    SA 88·MIN 82

    −4pp

  21. Q4·11:24

    Anthony Edwards makes 11-foot pullup jump shot

    SA 86·MIN 82

    +3pp

  22. Q4·11:51

    Luke Kornet makes alley oop dunk (Stephon Castle assists)BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SA 86·MIN 80

    −6pp

  23. Q4·12:00

    Harrison Barnes enters the game for Carter Bryant

    ·

    SA 84·MIN 80

  24. Q4·12:00

    Luke Kornet enters the game for Keldon Johnson

    ·

    SA 84·MIN 80

  25. Q4·12:00

    Stephon Castle enters the game for Dylan Harper

    ·

    SA 84·MIN 80

  26. Q4·12:00

    Anthony Edwards enters the game for Julius Randle

    ·

    SA 84·MIN 80

  27. Q4·12:00

    Rudy Gobert enters the game for Terrence Shannon Jr.

    ·

    SA 84·MIN 80

  28. Q3·0.0

    End of the 3rd Quarter

    SA 84·MIN 80

    +2pp

  29. Q3·0.2

    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound

    SA 84·MIN 80

    −0.9pp

  30. Q3·1.9

    Ayo Dosunmu misses two point shot

    SA 84·MIN 80

    −3pp

Team stats

SA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

37-70

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-76

53

FG %

43

5-21

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-22

15-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-14

15

Assists

17

12

Turnovers

15

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 218.5·SA -198/MIN +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

  • Victor WembanyamaSA
    24.2± 12.3high
  • Anthony EdwardsMIN
    21.7± 8.7high
  • Julius RandleMIN
    19.0± 5.0high

Rebounds

  • Victor WembanyamaSA
    11.4± 5.0high
  • Rudy GobertMIN
    10.6± 2.8high
  • Naz ReidMIN
    6.8± 2.0high

Assists

  • Stephon CastleSA
    7.3± 3.2high
  • De'Aaron FoxSA
    6.1± 2.4high
  • Julius RandleMIN
    3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

  • Victor WembanyamaSA
    4.0± 3.3high
  • Rudy GobertMIN
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Jaden McDanielsMIN
    1.0± 1.1high

Steals

  • Donte DiVincenzoMIN
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Devin VassellSA
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Rudy GobertMIN
    1.1± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    58.3%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    60.5%

    P(MIN win)

    36%

    weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen