Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5MIN

62-20

109114

MIN

49-33

NBASun, May 10FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasSA -5.5

SA · top performer

Dylan Harper

G · #2

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 3:51

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	30	8	2-8	0-5	4-4	-5	5	3
V. WembanyamaF · #1	12	4	2-5	0-1	—	-1	4	1
D. FoxG · #4	37	24	8-23	1-7	7-10	-6	4	3
D. VassellG · #24	33	14	6-10	2-5	—	+5	1	3
S. CastleG · #5	37	20	8-17	2-6	2-3	+8	6	4
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	9	2	1-2	—	—	-5	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	17	4	2-4	—	0-1	-5	3	1
C. BryantF · #11	12	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	26	7	3-4	—	1-2	0	9	1
D. HarperG · #2	27	24	8-11	1-1	7-7	-14	7	1
Team		109	41-86	6-26	21-27		41	17
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	38	12	5-12	2-4	—	+12	8	3
J. McDanielsF · #3	41	14	6-15	0-2	2-2	-5	6	0
R. GobertC · #27	30	11	4-7	0-1	3-4	-7	13	4
A. DosunmuG · #13	30	10	3-12	1-4	3-3	-4	5	3
A. EdwardsG · #5	40	36	13-22	3-5	7-8	0	6	2
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	31	15	6-12	0-4	3-3	+8	9	4
M. ConleyG · #10	11	8	2-2	2-2	2-2	+10	0	2
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	20	8	3-12	2-5	—	+11	2	2
Team		114	42-94	10-27	20-22		49	20
DNP: J. Ingles, K. Anderson, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark, B. Hyland

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

41-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-94

FG %

6-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-27

21-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-22

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 2-2

May 5

MIN104@

SA102

May 7

MIN95@

SA133

May 9

SA115@

MIN108

May 10

SA109@

MIN114today

May 13

MIN97@

SA126

May 16

SA139@

MIN109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-19866%

MIN+16438%

6· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -5.5↗SpreadBet SA -5.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

+3.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat SA 114-109. A. Edwards led the way with 36 points and 6 rebounds. MIN outscored the other side 34-25 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 21 REB · 3 AST

GS 34

MINstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 38 REB · 12 AST

GS 56

Bench(3)

31 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 5:12 · 97-98

+13pp→ 48% WP

Anthony Edwards · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)

MIN4th Quarter · 3:51 · 99-100

+18pp→ 54% WP

Devin Vassell · misses 12-foot pullup jump shot

MIN4th Quarter · 3:02 · 101-102

+18pp→ 65% WP

Luke Kornet · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	30	26	28	25	109
MIN	34	26	20	34	114

Period scoring

SA won 1 · MIN won 2

Harper 9

Edwards 11

Castle 7

Edwards 7

Harper 7

Jr. 8

Fox 7

Edwards 16

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

48%

41-86

45%

42-94

23%

6-26

3PT

37%

10-27

78%

21-27

91%

20-22

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·0.4
Dylan Harper offensive rebound
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·2.1
Julian Champagnie misses 13-foot fade away jump shot
SA 109·MIN 114
+0.8pp
Q4·2.9
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·6.6
De'Aaron Fox misses 31-foot three point shot
SA 109·MIN 114
+3pp
Q4·9.8
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·9.8
Dylan Harper enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·9.8
Spurs Full timeout
SA 109·MIN 114
Q4·9.8
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 109·MIN 114
−2pp
Q4·9.8
Keldon Johnson enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
SA 109·MIN 113
Q4·9.8
Luke Kornet enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
SA 109·MIN 113
Q4·9.8
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 109·MIN 113
+0.6pp
Q4·9.8
De'Aaron Fox personal foulBIG MOMENT
SA 109·MIN 112
+6pp
Q4·13.1
Timberwolves Full timeout
SA 109·MIN 112
+2pp
Q4·20.6
Julian Champagnie makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
SA 109·MIN 112
+8pp
Q4·20.6
Julian Champagnie makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 108·MIN 112
−2pp
Q4·20.6
Naz Reid shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 107·MIN 112
−9pp
Q4·23.8
Ayo Dosunmu bad pass turnover (Dylan Harper steals)
·
SA 107·MIN 112
−3pp
Q4·29.1
Dylan Harper makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 107·MIN 112
+4pp
Q4·29.1
Dylan Harper makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 106·MIN 112
−1pp
Q4·29.1
Ayo Dosunmu personal foul
SA 105·MIN 112
−5pp
Q4·29.1
Dylan Harper offensive rebound
SA 105·MIN 112
−1pp
Q4·31.7
Stephon Castle misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 105·MIN 112
+2pp
Q4·39.8
Naz Reid makes two point shot
SA 105·MIN 112
+3pp
Q4·39.8
Naz Reid offensive rebound
SA 105·MIN 110
+4pp
Q4·40.4
Ayo Dosunmu misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 105·MIN 110
−2pp
Q4·1:05
Julian Champagnie makes 1-foot driving dunk (Dylan Harper assists)
·
SA 105·MIN 110
−3pp
Q4·1:12
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 103·MIN 110
−2pp
Q4·1:12
Dylan Harper shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 103·MIN 109
+6pp

Betting line

SA -5.5·O/U 218.5·SA -198/MIN +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off San Antonio Spurs, 114–109. Decided by 5.

MIN +5.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
56.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
60.5%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
61.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIN vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jaden McDanielsMIN
0.9± 0.4high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIN

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.6%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

116.8

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Team pages

San Antonio SpursMinnesota Timberwolves

Elsewhere in the NBA

Knicks14476ers114Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR