NY
53-29
PHI
45-37
73.0%
NY wins · current
Pre-game: 53.7% PHI
NY 125 · 84 PHI
NY +41
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4Live · model intelligence
85% confidence
Win prob · home
1.0%
Leverage
5
low
Mostly decided
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.
NY · top performer
Miles McBride
G · #2
25
Pts
4
Reb
0
Ast
PHI · top performer
Joel Embiid
C · #21
24
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Box score
NY
53-29
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 20 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +23 | |
CONT7.685 DRIVES6.147 TOUCHES50.830 | ||||||||
| 29 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +30 | |
DEFL4.197 TOUCHES56.942 CONT4.633 | ||||||||
| 28 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +31 | |
DEFL1.929 DRIVES3.818 CONT3.617 | ||||||||
| 28 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +31 | |
TOUCHES89.694 DRIVES1688 DEFL1.618 | ||||||||
| 29 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +33 | |
| 16 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +14 | |
| 8 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +8 | |
| 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +10 | |
| Team | 125 | 36 | 28 | 6 | 3 | 5 | ||
| DNP: J. Sochan, M. Diawara | ||||||||
PHI
45-37
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -35 | |
DEFL3.592 CONT7.482 TOUCHES62.655 | ||||||||
| 28 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -24 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -28 | |
DEFL3.182 CONT3.821 DRIVES3.69 | ||||||||
| 33 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -35 | |
TOUCHES94.597 DRIVES13.779 CONT4.638 | ||||||||
| 29 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -30 | |
DEFL2.670 TOUCHES66.167 CONT5.255 | ||||||||
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | |
| 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -24 | |
| Team | 84 | 22 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 9 | ||
| DNP: T. Watford, J. Broome, K. Lowry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
58
FG %
47
28
Ast
17
Playoff series
NY leads series 3-0
PHI98@NY137PHI102@NY108NY108@PHI94NY@PHItodayPHI@NYupcomingNY@PHIupcomingPHI@NYupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NY -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
213.5
Defensive · -12.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NY-12556%PHI+10549%3· 6.2h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
213.5
0.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
10:28 - 4thVJ Edgecombe · misses shot
NYM. McBride
GLeading · 10:28 - 4th · 29 min
25 PTS · 4 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 41 PTS · 7 REB · 0 AST
PHIJ. Embiid
CLeading · 10:28 - 4th · 28 min
24 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
On pace: 41 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST
How it's going
NY lead PHI 125-84 (10:28 - 4th). M. McBride paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 0 AST. NY have outscored the other side 43-24 in the 1st quarter.
Win probability
PHI vs NY
Starters vs bench
production by unitNYstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
93 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST
GS 94
Bench(7)
32 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST
GS 27
PHIstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
66 PTS · 17 REB · 17 AST
GS 48
Bench(7)
18 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST
GS 8
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | 43 | 38 | 41 | 3 | 125 |
| PHI | 24 | 33 | 26 | 1 | 84 |
Period scoring
NY won 4 · PHI won 0
Q1
McBride 12
Maxey 8
Q2
Hart 11
Embiid 11
Q3
Towns 9
Edgecombe 18
Q4
Alvarado 2
Terry 1
Shooting comparison
58%
42-72
FG
47%
30-64
62%
23-37
3PT
22%
6-27
78%
18-23
FT
78%
18-23
Play-by-play · 378 plays
VJ Edgecombe misses shot
NY 125·PHI 84
Landry Shamet loose ball foul
NY 125·PHI 84
76ers offensive team rebound
NY 125·PHI 84
Justin Edwards misses 28-foot three point jumper
NY 125·PHI 84
Jose Alvarado makes 8-foot two point shot (Ariel Hukporti assists)
·
NY 125·PHI 84
Dalen Terry bad pass turnover (Jose Alvarado steals)
·
NY 123·PHI 84
Jose Alvarado lost ball turnover (Dalen Terry steals)
·
NY 123·PHI 84
Dalen Terry makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 123·PHI 84
76ers offensive team rebound
NY 123·PHI 83
Dalen Terry misses free throw 1 of 2
NY 123·PHI 83
Tyler Kolek shooting foul
NY 123·PHI 83
Dominick Barlow defensive rebound
NY 123·PHI 83
Ariel Hukporti misses free throw 2 of 2
NY 123·PHI 83
Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 123·PHI 83
Dalen Terry shooting foul
NY 122·PHI 83
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 122·PHI 83
VJ Edgecombe misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 122·PHI 83
Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Jordan Clarkson
·
NY 122·PHI 83
Justin Edwards enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
NY 122·PHI 83
Dalen Terry enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
NY 122·PHI 83
End of the 3rd Quarter
NY 122·PHI 83
(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
NY 122·PHI 83
Jordan Clarkson makes 3-foot two point shot
NY 122·PHI 83
Adem Bona makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 120·PHI 83
Adem Bona makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 120·PHI 82
Ariel Hukporti loose ball foul
NY 120·PHI 81
76ers offensive team rebound
NY 120·PHI 81
Quentin Grimes misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 120·PHI 81
Ariel Hukporti makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 120·PHI 81
VJ Edgecombe enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
NY 119·PHI 81
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
PHI
Home
42-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
30-64
58
FG %
47
23-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
6-27
18-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-23
28
Assists
17
5
Turnovers
9
Betting line
NY -1.5·O/U 213.5·NY -125/PHI +105
The receipts
-1.52
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-105
Close price
+102
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
47.4%
Market faded the model hard
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.3%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
53.7%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Elo Recent
49.2%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
53.9%
P(PHI win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
2.16 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
