SA
62-20
MIN
49-33
53.9%
SA wins · current
Pre-game: 59.4% MIN
SA 82 · 77 MIN
SA +5
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q3Key moments · live
newest firstLive · model intelligence
83% confidence
Win prob · home
29.3%
Leverage
89
peak
5-point game
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.
The receipts
-5.39
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+130
Close price
+164
Open no-vig
41.7%
Close no-vig
36.3%
Market faded the model hard
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
23
Pts
9
Reb
0
Ast
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
25
Pts
11
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Box score
SA
82
62-20
MIN
77
49-33
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 J. Champagnie★F · #30 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
| V. Wembanyama★F · #1 | 26 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +12 |
 D. Fox★G · #4 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 D. Vassell★G · #24 | 27 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6 |
 S. Castle★G · #5 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +14 |
 K. JohnsonF · #3 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -10 |
 L. KornetC · #7 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -8 |
 D. HarperG · #2 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7 |
| Team | 82 | 34 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 7 | ||
| DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin | ||||||||
MIN
49-33
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
 J. Randle★F · #30 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -14 |
 J. McDaniels★F · #3 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -15 |
 R. Gobert★C · #27 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
 M. Conley★G · #10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 |
| A. Edwards★G · #5 | 31 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
 N. ReidC · #11 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +6 |
 A. DosunmuG · #13 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 T. Shannon Jr.G · #1 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +18 |
| Team | 77 | 41 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 12 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, K. Anderson, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, J. Clark, B. Hyland | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
40
19
Ast
16
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
MIN104@SA102MIN95@SA133SA@MINtodaySA@MINupcomingMIN@SAupcomingSA@MINupcomingMIN@SAupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SA-21869%MIN+18036%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
+1.0 since open
Total
216.5
-1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
1:05 - 3rdRecent swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:09
Keldon Johnson · makes free throw 1 of 2
SAV. Wembanyama
FLeading · 1:05 - 3rd · 26 min
23 PTS · 9 REB · 0 AST
On pace: 42 PTS · 17 REB · 0 AST
MINA. Edwards
GLeading · 1:05 - 3rd · 31 min
25 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST
On pace: 39 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST
How it's going
SA lead MIN 82-77 (1:05 - 3rd). V. Wembanyama led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 0 AST.
Win probability
MIN vs SA
Score progression
7 lead changes
Starters vs bench
production by unitSAstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST
GS 56
Bench(5)
17 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
GS 13
MINstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 26 REB · 8 AST
GS 37
Bench(3)
23 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAnthony Edwards · lost ball turnover (Harrison Barnes steals)
Naz Reid · enters the game for Julius Randle
Victor Wembanyama · blocks Anthony Edwards 's 12-foot driving floating jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 23 | 28 | 31 | 82 |
| MIN | 22 | 29 | 26 | 77 |
Period scoring
SA won 2 · MIN won 1
Q1
Wembanyama 9
Edwards 13
Q2
Wembanyama 7
Randle 13
Q3
Wembanyama 7
Dosunmu 8
Shooting comparison
45%
29-64
FG
40%
28-70
33%
8-24
3PT
37%
10-27
67%
16-24
FT
79%
11-14
Play-by-play · 375 plays
Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 82·MIN 77
−0.8pp
Terrence Shannon Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 81·MIN 77
−5pp
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
SA 81·MIN 77
−1pp
Victor Wembanyama blocks Anthony Edwards 's 12-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
SA 81·MIN 77
−9pp
Victor Wembanyama loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
SA 81·MIN 77
+6pp
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
SA 81·MIN 77
+3pp
Anthony Edwards misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 81·MIN 77
−3pp
Victor Wembanyama makes driving layup
SA 81·MIN 77
−4pp
Ayo Dosunmu makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Anthony Edwards assists)
·
SA 79·MIN 77
+4pp
De'Aaron Fox makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
SA 79·MIN 75
−4pp
Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 77·MIN 75
+7pp
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
SA 77·MIN 72
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 77·MIN 72
Stephon Castle offensive foul turnover
SA 77·MIN 72
Stephon Castle offensive foul
SA 77·MIN 72
+4pp
Anthony Edwards makes 13-foot two point shot
SA 77·MIN 72
+3pp
Naz Reid defensive rebound
SA 77·MIN 70
+0.7pp
Devin Vassell misses 16-foot jumper
SA 77·MIN 70
+2pp
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 77·MIN 70
−2pp
Rudy Gobert blocks Keldon Johnson 's 4-foot driving layup
·
SA 77·MIN 70
+2pp
Ayo Dosunmu steps out of bounds turnover
SA 77·MIN 70
−3pp
Dylan Harper makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 77·MIN 70
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 76·MIN 70
+2pp
Dylan Harper misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 76·MIN 70
+2pp
Ayo Dosunmu shooting foul
SA 76·MIN 70
−4pp
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
SA 76·MIN 70
−0.9pp
Rudy Gobert misses 5-foot hook shot
SA 76·MIN 70
−3pp
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 76·MIN 70
+3pp
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 75·MIN 70
−0.8pp
Terrence Shannon Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SA 74·MIN 70
−7pp
Team stats
SA
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
29-64
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
28-70
45
FG %
40
8-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-27
16-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-14
19
Assists
16
7
Turnovers
12
Betting line
SA -5.5·O/U 216.5·SA -218/MIN +180
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 150 high confidence
Points
Rebounds
Assists
Blocks
Steals
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.9%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
59.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
60.4%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
63.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.52 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen