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Live · 7
  • MLBTop 8
    NYM 1@ARI 1
    -12.5pppeak
  • MLBBot 5
    ATL 1@LAD 1
    +1.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 6
    PIT 1@SF 2
    +41.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 6@SD 0
    -54.7pplow
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    SA 82@MIN 77
    -30.1pppeak
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    GS 69@SEA 53
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    VGK 5@ANA 0
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THE ONE Analytics
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ATL logo
ATL
1
LiveBot 5th
LAD logo
LAD
1
Updated 11:44 PM ET
BOT 5THTied
ATL

ATL

26-12

1
1
LAD

LAD

23-14

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

52.7%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 56.7% LAD

ATL 1 · 1 LAD

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↺Lead flipLADBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
    +15pp→ 64% WP

    Rojas · safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Jarvis, Rojas safe at second on error.

  • ↺Lead flipLADBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
    +13pp→ 54% WP

    Tucker · doubled to right, T. Hernández scored.

  • ↑SwingATLTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
    +9pp→ 61% WP

    Smith · doubled to right, Harris II to third.

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.37

C. Sale

6-1 · 2.14 ERA

vs

E. Sheehan

2-1 · 5.23 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

LAD no-vig %

52.6%

open 51.1% · +1.5

+2.0-0.5LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL56.6%47.1%LAD NO-VIG %May 7, 5 PMMay 8, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
● Live
ATL1

ATL

Braves

26-12

vs56.7%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

23-14

LAD1
ATL 43.3%win prob56.7% LAD
LAD 1573 · ATL 1550Box score→

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THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

65%Last 7 · 68-37
59%Last 30 · 249-175
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.52

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-115

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market steamed in our direction

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

58.4%

+1.7ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

73

high

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Fri, May 8·Bot 5th/VegasLAD -110
Updated 0s ago

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

Box score · Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers · live

MLB · Box score

ATL

1

26-12

Bot 5th

LAD

1

23-14

ATL

ATL

26-12

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C0-22000012
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B0-33000001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B0-33000000
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF2-22120000
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS0-22000002
D. SmithD. Smith★1B1-22010000
A. RileyA. Riley★3B2-22021000
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF0-22000001
J. JarvisJ. Jarvis★SS1-22010001
Team6-2020161017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP4.2311050
Team4.2311050
LAD

LAD

23-14

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH0-22000001
W. SmithW. Smith★C0-22000002
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B0-22000000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF0-22000000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF1-11110000
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF1-22011000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS0-22000000
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B0-22000002
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B1-22010000
Team3-1717131005
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP4.2611170
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP0.1000000
Team5.0611170

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

1

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Season series

May 9ATLATL@LADLADtoday
May 10ATLATL@LADLADupcoming
May 10ATLATL@LADLADupcoming
Aug 25LADLAD@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 26LADLAD@ATLATLupcoming
Aug 27LADLAD@ATLATLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

ATLATL-11052%
LADLAD-11052%

↘7· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
ATLATLSP
C. Sale

C. Sale

#51 · 6-1

ERA

2.14

K

49

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@COLCOL7.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 KW(6-1)
4/26vsPHIPHI6.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 KW(5-1)
4/18@PHIPHI7.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(4-1)
VS
LADLADSP
E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

#80 · 2-1

ERA

5.23

K

36

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@STLSTL4.2 IP · 4 ER · 8 KL(2-1)
4/25vsCHCCHC6.1 IP · 1 ER · 10 K-
4/19@COLCOL5.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
ATLATL6L · 2R · 1S
  1. 1

    D. Baldwin

    C · #30

    L
  2. 2

    O. Albies

    2B · #1

    B
  3. 3

    M. Olson

    1B · #28

    L
  4. 4

    M. Harris II

    CF · #23

    L
  5. 5

    M. Dubon

    LF · #14

    R
  6. 6

    D. Smith

    DH · #8

    L
  7. 7

    A. Riley

    3B · #27

    R
  8. 8

    M. Yastrzemski

    RF · #18

    L
  9. 9

    J. Jarvis

    SS · #74

    L
LADLAD4L · 5R
  1. 1

    S. Ohtani

    DH · #17

    L
  2. 2

    W. Smith

    C · #16

    R
  3. 3

    F. Freeman

    1B · #5

    L
  4. 4

    A. Pages

    CF · #44

    R
  5. 5

    T. Hernandez

    LF · #37

    R
  6. 6

    K. Tucker

    RF · #23

    L
  7. 7

    M. Rojas

    SS · #72

    R
  8. 8

    M. Muncy

    3B · #13

    L
  9. 9

    S. Espinal

    2B · #21

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th
Game flowATL ↔ LAD

Recent swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Chris Sale · pitches to Shohei Ohtani

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 2 ER

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 2 ER

How it's going

Tied 1-1 · Bot 5th.

Win probability

LAD vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5
ATL1
LAD1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 61% WP

Smith · doubled to right, Harris II to third.

LADBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 54% WP

Tucker · doubled to right, T. Hernández scored.

LADBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 64% WP

Rojas · safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Jarvis, Rojas safe at second on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
ATL010001
LAD010001

Period scoring

ATL won 0 · LAD won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Riley 1

Tucker 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

ATL
LAD

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period
event
player
  1. B5

    Chris Sale pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  2. B5

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  3. B5

    Espinal fouled out to first.

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

    −3pp

  4. B5

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  5. B5

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  6. B5

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  7. B5

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  8. B5

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  9. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  10. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  11. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  12. B5

    Chris Sale pitches to Santiago Espinal

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  13. B5

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  14. B5

    Muncy struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

    −5pp

  15. B5

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  16. B5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  17. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  18. B5

    Chris Sale pitches to Max Muncy

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  19. B5

    ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  20. B5

    Rojas safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Jarvis, Rojas safe at second on error.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

    +15pp

  21. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  22. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  23. B5

    Chris Sale pitches to Miguel Rojas

    ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  24. B5

    Bottom of the 5th inning

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  25. M5

    Middle of the 5th inning

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  26. T5

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  27. T5

    Olson flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  28. T5

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  29. T5

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

  30. T5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 1·LAD 1

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

1

6

Hits

3

1

Errors

0

8

TB

4

0

HR

0

1

BB

0

7

K

5

11

LOB

5

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8·ATL -110/LAD -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

LAD vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.0± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    6.0± 3.8low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Drake BaldwinATL
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.2± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    3.0± 1.9high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    2.3± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.9high
  • Drake BaldwinATL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Roki SasakiLAD
    3.2± 2.3low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    3.0± 1.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.0%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.1%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

1.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen