MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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TOP 7TH+6STL

STL

22-15

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

72.7%

STL wins · current

Pre-game: 55.7% SD

STL 6 · 0 SD

STL +6

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsSD leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSTLTop 5th Inning · 4-0
+29pp→ 89% WP
Wetherholt · singled to right, Church scored on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Winn scored, Scott II scored on error and Wetherholt scored.
Lead flipSTLTop 5th Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 57% WP
Church · reached on infield single to second, Winn to second.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.32

M. McGreevy

2-2 · 2.52 ERA

G. Canning

0-0 · 1.80 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

SD no-vig %

57.2%

open 57.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-54.7ppvs pre-game · STL favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

SD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 56 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
5.6± 1.6low
Randy VasquezSD
5.1± 3.2low
Yu DarvishSD
4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.3± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.2± 0.8high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jordan WalkerSTL
2.3± 2.4high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.2± 1.5high
Miguel AndujarSD
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 1.1high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.3high
Ty FranceSD
0.8± 1.6medium

Earned runs

Matt WaldronSD
4.0± 3.3low
Dustin MaySTL
3.0± 3.4low
Walker BuehlerSD
2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

STL

Cardinals

22-15

vs55.7%SD

SD★

Padres

22-15

STL 44.3%win prob55.7% SD

SD 1525 · STL 1509Box score→

MLBFri, May 8Top 7thSeriesSTL leads series 1-0VegasSD -143

Updated 0s ago

STL · top performer

Ivan Herrera

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

RBI

SD · top performer

Jackson Merrill

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

STL

22-15

Top 7th

22-15

STL

22-15

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Wetherholt★2B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
I. Herrera★C	4-4	4	1	4	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson★1B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. Walker★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Gorman★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Winn★SS	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
N. Church★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Prieto★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Scott II★CF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team	10-27	27	6	10	3	0	2	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
M. McGreevy★SP	6.0	1	0	0	2	9	0
Team	6.0	1	0	0	2	9	0

22-15

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Merrill★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
X. Bogaerts★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Machado★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. Tatis Jr.★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Andujar★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Laureano★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Fermin★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Song★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	1-19	19	0	1	0	0	2	9

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
G. Canning★SP	4.1	7	6	6	2	5	0
Y. MatsuiRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	1	0
Team	6.1	10	6	6	2	6	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

STL leads series 1-0

May 8

STL2@

SD1

May 9

STL@

SDtoday

May 9

STL@

SDupcoming

May 10

STL@

SDupcoming

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

May 8

STL2@

SD1

May 9

STL@

SDtoday

May 9

STL@

SDupcoming

May 10

STL@

SDupcoming

Jun 15

SD@

STLupcoming

Jun 16

SD@

STLupcoming

Jun 17

SD@

STLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

STL+11946%

SD-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

STLSP

M. McGreevy

#36 · 2-2

ERA

2.52

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vs

LAD6.0 IP · 0 ER · 3 KW(2-2)

4/26vs

SEA6.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 K-

4/20@

MIA5.2 IP · 4 ER · 3 KL(1-2)

SDSP

G. Canning

#17 · 0-0

ERA

1.80

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

CHW5.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

STL6L · 3R

1
J. Wetherholt
2B · #26
L
2
I. Herrera
C · #48
R
3
A. Burleson
1B · #41
L
4
J. Walker
RF · #18
R
5
N. Gorman
DH · #16
L
6
M. Winn
SS · #0
R
7
N. Church
LF · #27
L
8
C. Prieto
3B · #31
L
9
V. Scott II
CF · #11
L

SD3L · 6R

1
J. Merrill
CF · #3
L
2
X. Bogaerts
SS · #2
R
3
M. Machado
3B · #13
R
4
G. Sheets
1B · #30
L
5
F. Tatis Jr.
RF · #23
R
6
M. Andujar
DH · #41
R
7
R. Laureano
LF · #5
R
8
F. Fermin
C · #54
R
9
S. Song
2B · #24
L

Live · top performers so far

Top 7th

Game flowSTL ↔ SD

Recent swing: 29pp · Top 5th Inning

STL

I. Herrera

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. McGreevy

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 0 ER

J. Merrill

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

G. Canning

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 10 ER

How it's going

STL lead SD 6-0 (Top 7th). Wetherholt's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

SD vs STL

Score progression

0 lead changes

STL6

SD0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

STLTop 5th Inning · 0-0

+8pp→ 57% WP

Church · reached on infield single to second, Winn to second.

STLTop 5th Inning · 4-0

+29pp→ 89% WP

Wetherholt · singled to right, Church scored on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Winn scored, Scott II scored on error and Wetherholt scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
STL	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	6
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	—	0

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SD won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Inn 5

Wetherholt 4

Inn 6

Inn 7

STL

Play-by-play · 384 plays

period

event

player

T7
· ·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Burleson singled to right, Herrera to third.
· ·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Yuki Matsui pitches to Alec Burleson
· ·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Herrera singled to center.
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Yuki Matsui pitches to Ivan Herrera
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Wetherholt struck out swinging.
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Yuki Matsui pitches to JJ Wetherholt
·
STL 6·SD 0
T7
Top of the 7th inning
STL 6·SD 0
End 6t
End of the 6th inning
STL 6·SD 0
B6
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Machado struck out swinging.
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Michael McGreevy pitches to Manny Machado
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
·
STL 6·SD 0
B6
Bogaerts struck out swinging.
·
STL 6·SD 0
−0.5pp

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8·STL +119/SD -143

DraftKings · via ESPN