MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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BOT 6TH+1SF

PIT

21-17

14-23

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

54.6%

SF wins · current

Pre-game: 53.2% PIT

PIT 1 · 2 SF

SF +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsSF leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSFTop 5th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 69% WP
Cook · struck out looking.
ClutchPITBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 40% WP
Chapman · grounded into fielder's choice to third, Devers to second, Schmitt out at home.
ClutchPITTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 46% WP
Griffin · struck out swinging.
Lead flipSFBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 55% WP
Devers · homered to center (399 feet).
Lead flipPITTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 61% WP
Ozuna · homered to left (365 feet).

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.71

C. Mlodzinski

2-2 · 4.76 ERA

R. Ray

2-4 · 2.95 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open -1.5 · +3.0

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

51.1%

open 52.3% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
46.8%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.2%
P(SF win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

87.8%

+41.0ppvs pre-game · SF favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.18

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

47.7%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

SF vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.7low
Landen RouppSF
6.1± 1.4low
Paul SkenesPIT
5.8± 3.1low

Hits

Jesus RodriguezSF
1.3± 1.6low
Luis ArraezSF
1.3± 1.2high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.3± 2.5high
Jesus RodriguezSF
2.3± 3.4low
Casey SchmittSF
2.1± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.8± 1.2high
Casey SchmittSF
0.7± 1.0high
Jesus RodriguezSF
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.6± 3.2low
Logan WebbSF
3.4± 2.6low
Tyler MahleSF
2.9± 4.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

PIT★

Pirates

21-17

vs53.2%PIT

Giants

14-23

PIT 53.2%win prob46.8% SF

PIT 1508 · SF 1462Box score→

MLBFri, May 8Bot 6thVegasSF -115

Updated 0s ago

PIT · top performer

Marcell Ozuna

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

RBI

SF · top performer

Rafael Devers

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

PIT

21-17

Bot 6th

14-23

PIT

21-17

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Triolo★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
B. Reynolds★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Ozuna★DH	2-2	2	1	2	1	1	1	0
O. Cruz★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Griffin★SS	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Bart★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Yorke★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Cook★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	4-19	19	1	4	1	1	4	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
C. Mlodzinski★SP	5.1	7	2	2	0	0	1
Team	5.1	7	2	2	0	0	1

14-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Lee★RF	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Arraez★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Schmitt★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Devers★1B	2-2	2	2	2	1	1	0	0
M. Chapman★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Adames★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Ramos★LF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. Gilbert★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Rodríguez★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team	7-21	21	2	7	2	1	0	0

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
R. Ray★SP	6.0	4	1	1	4	7	1
Team	6.0	4	1	1	4	7	1

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Season series

May 9

PIT@

SFtoday

May 10

PIT@

SFupcoming

May 10

PIT@

SFupcoming

Sep 1

SF@

PITupcoming

Sep 2

SF@

PITupcoming

Sep 3

SF@

PITupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT-10551%

SF-11553%

6· 3.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

PITSP

C. Mlodzinski

#50 · 2-2

ERA

4.76

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vs

CIN5.2 IP · 5 ER · 10 KW(2-2)

4/26@

MIL3.2 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(1-2)

4/22@

TEX4.1 IP · 5 ER · 6 KL(1-1)

SFSP

R. Ray

#38 · 2-4

ERA

2.95

—

Last 3 starts

5/1@

TB6.1 IP · 3 ER · 5 KL(2-4)

4/25vs

MIA5.0 IP · 1 ER · 4 K-

4/19@

WSH6.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 KL(2-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

PIT1L · 7R · 1S

1
J. Triolo
3B · #19
R
2
N. Gonzales
2B · #3
R
3
B. Reynolds
LF · #10
B
4
M. Ozuna
DH · #24
R
5
O. Cruz
CF · #15
L
6
K. Griffin
SS · #6
R
7
J. Bart
C · #14
R
8
N. Yorke
1B · #38
R
9
B. Cook
RF · #25
R

SF4L · 5R

1
J. Lee
RF · #51
L
2
L. Arraez
2B · #1
L
3
C. Schmitt
DH · #10
R
4
R. Devers
1B · #16
L
5
M. Chapman
3B · #26
R
6
W. Adames
SS · #2
R
7
H. Ramos
LF · #17
R
8
D. Gilbert
CF · #0
L
9
J. Rodriguez
C · #79
R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 6th

Game flowPIT ↔ SF

Recent swing: 14pp · Top 5th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 3 : Ball 1

PIT

M. Ozuna

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Mlodzinski

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 ER · 7 H

On pace: 7 IP · 0 K · 3 ER

R. Devers

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

R. Ray

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 1 ER

How it's going

SF lead PIT 2-1 (Bot 6th).

Win probability

SF vs PIT

Score progression

0 lead changes

PIT1

SF2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PITTop 2nd Inning · 1-0

+13pp→ 61% WP

Ozuna · homered to left (365 feet).

SFBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1

+13pp→ 55% WP

Devers · homered to center (399 feet).

SFTop 5th Inning · 1-2

+14pp→ 69% WP

Cook · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
PIT	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
SF	0	1	0	1	0	0	2

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · SF won 1

Inn 1

Inn 2

Ozuna 1

Devers 1

Inn 3

Inn 4

Ramos 1

Inn 5

Inn 6

PIT

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

B6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Rafael Devers
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Schmitt grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
·
PIT 1·SF 2
+6pp
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Casey Schmitt
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Bottom of the 6th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
M6
Middle of the 6th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Cruz grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Ozuna out at second.
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Robbie Ray pitches to Oneil Cruz
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Ozuna singled to left.
·
PIT 1·SF 2
−4pp
T6
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Robbie Ray pitches to Marcell Ozuna
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Reynolds fouled out to right.
·
PIT 1·SF 2
+4pp
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Robbie Ray pitches to Bryan Reynolds
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Top of the 6th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
End 5t
End of the 5th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
B5
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 8·PIT -105/SF -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Play-by-play · 322 plays

period

event

player

B6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Rafael Devers
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Schmitt grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT
·
PIT 1·SF 2
+6pp
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Carmen Mlodzinski pitches to Casey Schmitt
·
PIT 1·SF 2
B6
Bottom of the 6th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
M6
Middle of the 6th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Cruz grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Ozuna out at second.
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Robbie Ray pitches to Oneil Cruz
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Ozuna singled to left.
·
PIT 1·SF 2
−4pp
T6
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Robbie Ray pitches to Marcell Ozuna
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Reynolds fouled out to right.
·
PIT 1·SF 2
+4pp
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Robbie Ray pitches to Bryan Reynolds
·
PIT 1·SF 2
T6
Top of the 6th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
End 5t
End of the 5th inning
PIT 1·SF 2
B5
· ·
PIT 1·SF 2