Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at SA?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIN

MIN

49-33

104102

62-20

NBAMon, May 4FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasSA -10.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

14.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

14.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 81pp · 1st Quarter · 2:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	41	21	8-20	2-6	3-6	-3	10	2
J. McDanielsF · #3	36	16	7-14	0-2	2-2	-2	5	2
R. GobertC · #27	30	7	3-7	—	1-5	+2	10	3
M. ConleyG · #10	24	12	4-8	4-7	—	+13	2	6
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	35	16	5-13	0-1	6-8	-10	5	1
Bench
N. ReidC · #11	30	12	5-8	2-3	—	+15	9	1
J. ClarkG · #22	7	2	1-1	—	—	-1	1	0
B. HylandG · #8	12	0	0-6	0-4	—	-2	1	2
A. EdwardsG · #5	25	18	8-13	2-3	—	-2	3	3
Team		104	41-90	10-26	12-21		46	20
DNP: J. Ingles, K. Anderson, J. Phillips, J. Beringer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	32	17	7-12	3-7	—	+7	7	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	40	11	5-17	0-8	1-2	+5	15	5
D. FoxG · #4	33	10	5-14	0-4	—	-13	3	6
D. VassellG · #24	36	14	5-11	3-6	1-1	+7	5	3
S. CastleG · #5	28	17	4-8	3-5	6-8	+4	5	5
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	10	2	1-1	—	—	+4	4	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	24	11	5-10	0-2	1-2	-13	2	1
L. KornetC · #7	8	2	0-1	—	2-2	-7	2	0
D. HarperG · #2	29	18	7-13	1-4	3-3	-4	4	4
Team		102	39-87	10-36	14-18		47	24
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

41-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-87

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-36

12-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

MIN leads series 1-0

May 5

MIN104@

SA102today

May 7

MIN95@

SA133

May 9

SA115@

MIN108

May 10

SA109@

MIN114

May 13

MIN97@

SA126

May 16

SA139@

MIN109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

MIN+31024%

SA-39580%

50· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -10.5↗SpreadBet SA -10.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

-3.0 since open

Total

218.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat SA 104-102. A. Edwards led with 18 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. Naz Reid's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (81pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 32 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 25

SAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 35 REB · 19 AST

GS 57

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 9:52 · 77-77

+15pp→ 54% WP

Julian Champagnie · shooting foul

MIN4th Quarter · 0.0 · 104-102

+19pp→ 100% WP

Julian Champagnie · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

SA1st Quarter · 2:50 · 14-17

+81pp→ 81% WP

Naz Reid · lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	24	21	24	35	104
SA	23	22	27	30	102

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · SA won 2

Gobert 6

Harper 9

Conley 6

Fox 15

McDaniels 8

Harper 25

Edwards 11

Fox 8

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

46%

41-90

45%

39-87

38%

10-26

3PT

28%

10-36

57%

12-21

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 104·SA 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 104·SA 102
Q4·0.0
Spurs offensive team rebound
MIN 104·SA 102
Q4·0.0
Julian Champagnie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 104·SA 102
−19pp
Q4·6.2
Dylan Harper defensive rebound
MIN 104·SA 102
−3pp
Q4·8.0
Julius Randle misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 104·SA 102
−2pp
Q4·30.9
Dylan Harper makes 1-foot running dunkBIG MOMENT
MIN 104·SA 102
+7pp
Q4·32.8
Anthony Edwards bad pass turnover (Devin Vassell steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 104·SA 100
+6pp
Q4·34.4
Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MIN 104·SA 100
Q4·43.6
Victor Wembanyama makes driving dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
MIN 104·SA 100
+4pp
Q4·49.5
Julius Randle makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIN 104·SA 98
−7pp
Q4·1:07
Julian Champagnie makes two point shot
MIN 102·SA 98
+5pp
Q4·1:07
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
MIN 102·SA 96
+3pp
Q4·1:08
Victor Wembanyama misses 13-foot jumper
MIN 102·SA 96
−3pp
Q4·1:09
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
MIN 102·SA 96
+3pp
Q4·1:11
Victor Wembanyama misses driving layup
MIN 102·SA 96
−4pp
Q4·1:19
Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 102·SA 96
+0.7pp
Q4·1:19
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 101·SA 96
+3pp
Q4·1:19
Rudy Gobert misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 101·SA 96
+2pp
Q4·1:19
De'Aaron Fox shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 101·SA 96
−6pp
Q4·1:34
Julian Champagnie makes two point shot
MIN 101·SA 96
+3pp
Q4·1:34
Julian Champagnie offensive rebound
MIN 101·SA 94
+2pp
Q4·1:37
Devin Vassell misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 101·SA 94
−3pp
Q4·1:44
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 101·SA 94
+2pp
Q4·1:44
Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid
·
MIN 100·SA 94
Q4·1:44
Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 100·SA 94
−0.8pp
Q4·1:44
Devin Vassell shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 99·SA 94
−6pp
Q4·2:02
De'Aaron Fox makes running layup
MIN 99·SA 94
+3pp
Q4·2:07
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
MIN 99·SA 92
+0.7pp
Q4·2:09
Jaden McDaniels misses driving floating jump shot
MIN 99·SA 92
+2pp

Betting line

SA -10.5·O/U 218.5·MIN +310/SA -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 104–102. Decided by 2.

MIN +10.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(SA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
60.2%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
59.7%
P(SA win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+9.71

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+600

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

13.7%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at SA?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jaden McDanielsMIN
0.9± 0.4high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.3%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Team pages

Minnesota TimberwolvesSan Antonio Spurs

Elsewhere in the NBA

76ers98Knicks137Final

Data via ESPN · hoopR