NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22DET

ORL

45-37

94116

DET

60-22

NBASun, May 3FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -8.5

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Orlando Magic, 116–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET -8.5 cashed (won by 22). Total cleared the 200.5 OVER by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Tobias Harris

F · #12

28.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
J. CainF · #8	24	5	2-6	1-3	0-1	-16	4	1
P. BancheroF · #5	42	38	14-25	4-7	6-8	-18	9	6
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	38	13	3-7	1-4	6-8	-27	5	2
D. BaneG · #3	38	16	5-10	3-5	3-5	-8	3	3
J. SuggsG · #4	36	6	2-9	0-4	2-2	-28	4	4
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	10	5	1-3	1-1	2-2	+5	2	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-12	0	0
J. CarterG · #2	11	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	1	1
A. BlackG · #0	33	11	4-12	0-4	3-4	-11	5	1
Team		94	31-75	10-30	22-30		33	18
DNP: N. Penda, G. Bitadze, J. Howard, J. Richardson

DNP: N. Penda, G. Bitadze, J. Howard, J. Richardson

box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	MIN	PTS	FG	3PT	FT	+/-	REB	AST
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	36	30	11-18	5-7	3-3	+22	9	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	36	10	4-13	2-10	—	+15	6	3
J. DurenC · #0	37	15	5-9	—	5-6	+27	15	3
C. CunninghamG · #2	39	32	10-18	4-6	8-10	+29	1	12
A. ThompsonG · #9	34	8	4-5	—	0-1	+12	4	4
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	2	0	0-1	—	—	-5	0	0
T. SmithF · #35	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. StewartF · #28	8	0	0-2	—	—	0	1	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. GreenG · #31	14	3	1-5	1-5	—	+3	2	0
M. SasserG · #25	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
C. LanierG · #20	1	2	1-1	—	—	+2	0	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	29	16	5-8	4-5	2-2	+5	3	5
Team		116	41-80	16-33	18-22		41	30
DNP: C. LeVert, K. Huerter

DNP: C. LeVert, K. Huerter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

DET wins series 4-3

Apr 19

ORL112@

DET101

Apr 22

ORL83@

DET98

Apr 25

DET105@

ORL113

Apr 28

DET88@

ORL94

Apr 29

ORL109@

DET116

May 1

DET93@

ORL79

May 3

ORL94@

DET116today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

200.5

Defensive · -25.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+26028%

DET-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -8.5↗SpreadBet DET -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

200.5

-3.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowORL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:16

ORL

P. Banchero

Game leader · 42 min30+ point game

38 PTS · 9 REB · 6 AST

DET

T. Harris

Game leader · 36 min30+ point game

30 PTS · 9 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

DET beat ORL 116-94. T. Harris paced them with 30 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. DET outscored the other side 40-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

16 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

GS 9

DETstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 35 REB · 24 AST

GS 93

Bench(8)

21 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

GS 11

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	22	27	15	30	94
DET	20	40	23	33	116

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · DET won 3

Banchero 11

Duren 5

Banchero 12

Reed 18

Banchero 9

Black 14

Jr. 7

Harris 20

ORL

DET

Shooting comparison

ORL

DET

41%

31-75

51%

41-80

33%

10-30

3PT

48%

16-33

73%

22-30

82%

18-22

Play-by-play · 468 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 94·DET 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 94·DET 116
Q4·16.7
shot clock turnover
ORL 94·DET 116
Q4·40.7
Chaz Lanier makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
ORL 94·DET 116
Q4·1:03
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 94·DET 114
Q4·1:03
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
ORL 93·DET 114
Q4·1:03
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 93·DET 114
Q4·1:03
Javonte Green shooting foul
ORL 92·DET 114
Q4·1:13
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 92·DET 114
Q4·1:13
Tolu Smith enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
ORL 92·DET 113
Q4·1:13
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
ORL 92·DET 113
Q4·1:13
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
ORL 92·DET 113
Q4·1:13
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 92·DET 113
Q4·1:13
Anthony Black shooting foul
ORL 92·DET 112
Q4·1:23
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
ORL 92·DET 112
Q4·1:27
Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 92·DET 112
Q4·1:33
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 92·DET 112
Q4·1:33
Javonte Green enters the game for Cade Cunningham
·
ORL 92·DET 111
Q4·1:33
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 92·DET 111
Q4·1:33
Magic Full timeout
ORL 92·DET 110
Q4·1:33
Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul
·
ORL 92·DET 110
Q4·1:49
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ORL 92·DET 110
Q4·1:49
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·1:49
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·1:49
Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2
·
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·1:49
Cade Cunningham shooting foul
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·1:51
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound
·
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·1:52
Anthony Black misses driving layup
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·2:06
Jalen Duren makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Tobias Harris assists)
·
ORL 91·DET 110
Q4·2:26
Jalen Suggs personal foul
ORL 91·DET 108

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

31-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-80

FG %

10-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-33

22-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DET -8.5·O/U 200.5·ORL +260/DET -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
DRIVES1999+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.697
Jalen DurenDET · C
CONT994
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.592

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
68.2%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
70.4%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
67.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.05

CLV pp

Open price

+275

Close price

+260

Open no-vig

25.6%

Close no-vig

26.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

DET vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · hoopR