Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CLE?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12CLE

TOR

46-36

102114

CLE

52-30

NBASun, May 3FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -8.5

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 42.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. BarrettF · #9	43	23	9-25	1-6	4-5	-4	4	6
S. BarnesF · #4	37	24	8-14	1-1	7-7	0	9	6
J. PoeltlC · #19	22	9	4-5	—	1-4	+9	7	0
J. SheadG · #23	36	14	5-16	2-8	2-3	-13	3	7
J. WalterG · #14	38	13	4-9	3-7	2-3	-15	2	2
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	9	6	3-6	0-2	0-1	-9	0	0
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. BattleF · #77	14	3	1-3	1-2	—	-8	2	1
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	24	8	3-5	—	2-3	-19	4	3
J. MogboF · #2	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
G. TempleG · #17	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	16	2	1-4	0-2	—	-1	2	0
G. DickG · #1	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		102	38-87	8-28	18-26		33	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	21	5	2-5	1-3	—	-6	4	1
J. AllenC · #31	33	22	7-11	—	8-14	+13	19	2
E. MobleyC · #4	27	13	5-7	1-2	2-4	-4	7	4
J. HardenG · #1	37	18	3-9	1-5	11-13	+5	6	3
D. MitchellG · #45	35	22	9-20	2-9	2-2	+8	3	1
Bench
D. SchroderG · #8	14	2	1-7	0-2	—	-11	1	1
M. StrusG · #2	31	12	4-10	2-8	2-2	+20	8	5
S. MerrillG · #5	23	13	4-8	3-7	2-2	+16	3	2
J. TysonG · #20	19	7	3-8	1-3	—	+19	9	4
Team		114	38-85	11-39	27-37		60	23
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, T. Bryant, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

38-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-85

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-39

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-37

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE wins series 4-3

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

209.5

Defensive · -16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+27027%

CLE-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -8.5↗SpreadBet CLE -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

+1.0 since open

Total

209.5

-2.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat TOR 114-102. J. Allen led with 22 PTS, 19 REB, 2 AST. CLE outscored the other side 38-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 25 REB · 21 AST

GS 59

Bench(8)

19 PTS · 8 REB · 4 AST

GS 12

CLEstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 39 REB · 11 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

34 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE2nd Quarter · 4:05 · 43-36

+7pp→ 36% WP

RJ Barrett · misses 28-foot three point jumper

CLE2nd Quarter · 42.3 · 49-49

+7pp→ 56% WP

Jaylon Tyson · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)

CLE3rd Quarter · 6:02 · 57-65

+7pp→ 86% WP

Jarrett Allen · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	26	23	19	34	102
CLE	24	25	38	27	114

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · CLE won 2

Shead 7

Harden 5

Barnes 9

Tyson 5

Barnes 6

Allen 14

Barrett 11

Mitchell 6

TOR

CLE

Shooting comparison

TOR

CLE

44%

38-87

45%

38-85

29%

8-28

3PT

28%

11-39

69%

18-26

73%

27-37

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·1.3
shot clock turnover
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
Gradey Dick enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for RJ Barrett
·
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
Garrett Temple enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
Cavaliers Full timeout
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·25.3
RJ Barrett makes driving layup
TOR 102·CLE 114
Q4·31.0
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
TOR 100·CLE 114
Q4·31.0
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
TOR 99·CLE 114
Q4·31.0
Double technical foul: Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell
·
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·31.0
(00:31) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·31.0
Jarrett Allen flagrant foul type 1
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·31.0
Jarrett Allen lost ball turnover (Ja'Kobe Walter steals)
·
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·33.3
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·35.4
RJ Barrett misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·47.8
Jarrett Allen enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·47.8
Donovan Mitchell personal foul
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·47.8
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·48.4
Scottie Barnes blocks Donovan Mitchell 's 25-foot three point jumper
·
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·1:03
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·1:03
Cavaliers Full timeout
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·1:13
Jamal Shead bad pass turnover (Jarrett Allen steals)
·
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·1:22
Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup
TOR 98·CLE 114
Q4·1:30
Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound
TOR 98·CLE 112
Q4·1:33
Jamal Shead misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 98·CLE 112
Q4·1:40
Max Strus makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)
·
TOR 98·CLE 112

Betting line

CLE -8.5·O/U 209.5·TOR +270/CLE -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Toronto Raptors, 114–102.

CLE -8.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 209.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
60.9%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
56.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
62.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.13

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+230

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

29.0%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CLE?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CLE vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CLE

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR