NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14PHI

PHI

45-37

11197

BOS

56-26

NBATue, Apr 21FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBOS -13.5

PHI · top performer

VJ Edgecombe

G · #77

26.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 1:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	35	19	7-13	2-5	3-6	0	4	3
A. BonaC · #30	22	0	0-4	—	—	0	3	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	32	12	5-10	2-6	0-1	+10	5	0
T. MaxeyG · #0	40	29	11-28	5-12	2-2	+6	4	9
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	30	12-20	6-10	—	+17	10	2
Bench
J. EdwardsF · #11	22	5	2-5	1-2	—	+8	4	1
D. BarlowF · #25	7	0	—	—	—	+10	1	0
A. DrummondC · #1	26	10	4-4	1-1	1-2	+12	8	2
Q. GrimesG · #5	21	6	2-6	2-3	—	+7	3	1
Team		111	43-90	19-39	6-11		42	18
DNP: T. Watford, J. Walker, D. Terry, J. Broome, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	39	19	8-19	2-8	1-2	+1	14	9
S. HauserF · #30	25	6	2-8	2-8	—	-2	4	1
N. QuetaC · #88	28	8	3-4	—	2-2	-4	6	0
D. WhiteG · #9	39	8	3-12	2-10	—	-8	2	3
J. BrownG · #7	38	36	11-24	5-12	9-12	-9	7	4
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	18	9	3-7	1-4	2-2	-7	5	1
L. GarzaC · #52	2	2	1-2	0-1	—	-1	3	0
P. PritchardG · #11	27	4	2-8	0-4	—	-15	5	5
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	11	5	2-2	1-1	—	-8	1	0
J. WalshG · #27	9	0	0-1	—	—	-15	3	0
M. ShulgaG · #44	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
Team		97	35-89	13-50	14-18		50	24
DNP: D. Banton, A. Williams, H. Gonzalez

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

43-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-89

FG %

19-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-50

6-11

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 19

PHI91@

BOS123

Apr 21

PHI111@

BOS97today

Apr 24

BOS108@

PHI100

Apr 26

BOS128@

PHI96

Apr 28

PHI113@

BOS97

May 1

BOS93@

PHI106

May 2

PHI109@

BOS100

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+57515%

BOS-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -13.5↗SpreadBet BOS -13.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 111-97. V. Edgecombe paced them with 30 PTS, 10 REB, 2 AST. PHI outscored the other side 37-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 67

Bench(4)

21 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 21

BOSstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 54

Bench(7)

20 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS3rd Quarter · 1:37 · 82-77

+14pp→ 41% WP

Jaylen Brown · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 11:47 · 84-80

+13pp→ 43% WP

Derrick White · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 5:39 · 94-89

+12pp→ 71% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes 26-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	25	37	22	27	111
BOS	28	26	23	20	97

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · BOS won 2

Maxey 10

Tatum 7

Edgecombe 16

Brown 10

Jr. 7

Brown 13

Maxey 12

Brown 8

PHI

BOS

Shooting comparison

PHI

BOS

48%

43-90

39%

35-89

49%

19-39

3PT

26%

13-50

55%

6-11

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 111·BOS 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 111·BOS 97
Q4·11.1
shot clock turnover
PHI 111·BOS 97
Q4·35.2
Luka Garza makes two point shot (Ron Harper Jr. assists)
·
PHI 111·BOS 97
Q4·41.7
Luka Garza offensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 95
Q4·43.7
Max Shulga misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 111·BOS 95
Q4·56.6
Luka Garza offensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 95
Q4·1:01
Ron Harper Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 111·BOS 95
Q4·1:09
Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 111·BOS 95
Q4·1:30
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:32
Luka Garza misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Luka Garza defensive rebound
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Paul George misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Max Shulga enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Luka Garza enters the game for Derrick White
·
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Paul George misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·1:52
Jayson Tatum personal foul
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·2:04
Jaylen Brown makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 108·BOS 95
Q4·2:13
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:14
Tyrese Maxey misses tip shot
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:14
Tyrese Maxey offensive rebound
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:15
Tyrese Maxey misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:32
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:34
Nikola Vucevic misses 29-foot three point jumper
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:42
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 1
PHI 108·BOS 92
Q4·2:42
Jayson Tatum shooting foul
PHI 107·BOS 92

Betting line

BOS -13.5·O/U 218.5·PHI +575/BOS -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 111–97.

PHI +13.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Paul GeorgePHI · F
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

BOS

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

24.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR