Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Jun 24, 2026

CHC

40-37

PregameWed, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV

NYM

34-42

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Citi Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Citi Field · Queens, New York

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ben Brown

RP · #32

4-2

W-L

1.85

ERA

0.94

WHIP

68.0

Last 3 starts

vsTORW(4-2)6.0 IP2 ER4 K

@SFW(3-2)5.0 IP1 ER3 K

vsSF-5.1 IP0 ER5 K

Home starter

Sean Manaea

RP · #59

1-2

W-L

4.64

ERA

1.34

WHIP

54.1

Last 3 starts

@PHI-5.1 IP2 ER5 K

vsATLL(1-2)6.0 IP2 ER6 K

@SDW(1-1)4.0 IP2 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesCHC lead series 3-0

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.1medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
4.9± 2.9medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.4± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Juan SotoNYM
2.6± 2.7high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

NYM

.738

OPS

◀

.719

.671

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.75

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

4.28

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.07

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.