MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

29-45

PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDT

41-29

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Tropicana Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Luinder Avila

RP · #58

1-3

W-L

6.19

ERA

1.81

WHIP

32.0

Last 3 starts

vsHOUL(1-3)0.2 IP8 ER0 K

@MIN-5.0 IP1 ER3 K

@CINW(1-2)5.0 IP1 ER5 K

Home starter

Shane McClanahan

SP · #18

6-4

W-L

3.23

ERA

1.17

WHIP

64.0

Last 3 starts

@LAAL(6-4)4.0 IP4 ER7 K

@MIAL(6-3)5.0 IP4 ER6 K

vsLAAW(6-2)5.0 IP1 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/22

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low
Shane McClanahanTB
5.2± 2.1low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.2± 1.4high
Kameron MisnerKC
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.7± 1.6high
Yandy DiazTB
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.695

OPS

.717

▶

.714

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.333

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.44

4.51

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.92

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

8.0

K / 9

8.5

8.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.