MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

HOU

34-41

PregameWed, 7:07 PM EDT

TOR

35-38

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Peter Lambert

SP · #38

5-4

W-L

3.47

ERA

1.21

WHIP

57.0

Last 3 starts

@LAA-6.1 IP2 ER6 K

vsATHW(5-4)5.1 IP1 ER4 K

vsMILW(4-4)5.0 IP2 ER3 K

Home starter

Kevin Gausman

SP · #34

4-4

W-L

3.41

ERA

1.03

WHIP

87.0

Last 3 starts

vsNYY-7.0 IP1 ER7 K

vsBAL-5.0 IP4 ER5 K

@ATLL(4-4)6.0 IP4 ER8 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/22

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.4medium

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.4± 1.0high
Yainer DiazHOU
1.1± 0.8high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
1.8± 1.6high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.7± 0.7high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

TOR

.728

OPS

◀

.717

.704

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.53

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.91

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league