Portland Fire at Chicago Sky
POR
7-9
CHI
4-10
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Chicago Sky Wednesday at 6/24 - 8:00 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
CHI leads series 1-0
CHI98@POR83POR@CHItodayPOR@CHIupcomingScouting report
POR @ CHI
Tale of the tape
7-9
Record
4-10
#6
Conf rank
#6
-6.5
Pt diff
-5.3
L1
Streak
L4
4-6
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
45
FG %
42
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI15.8± 7.2low
- Carla LeitePOR13.3± 5.4medium
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI7.6± 4.5medium
- Azura StevensCHI5.7± 5.0low
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.1± 3.4medium
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR5.4± 3.6medium
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.3± 3.6low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.2± 3.0low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.0± 1.2medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.7± 2.2medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.3± 1.3low
Steals
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.7medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.1medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
CHI
44.9%
FG%
44.4
41.8%
33.7%
3PT %
33.1
29.9%
81.5
PPG
85.3
82.2
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
19.1
14.9
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.7