Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics
MIN
11-3
WSH
6-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
innesota Lynx visit Washington Mystics Wednesday at 6/24 - 7:30 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8. WSH is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 6/21
WSH@MINupcomingMIN@WSHtodayMIN@WSHupcomingScouting report
MIN @ WSH
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -46.0
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
11-3
Record
6-7
#1
Conf rank
#5
+13.2
Pt diff
-4.3
W1
Streak
W1
9-1
Last 10
4-6
92.5
Power score
46.5
#2
Power rank
#10
51.9
Sched ahead
93.1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
50
FG %
44
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN18.2± 6.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.8± 6.7medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN16.5± 6.9medium
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.2± 3.6medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.7± 2.7medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.0± 2.1medium
- Sonia CitronWSH3.6± 2.8low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.3± 1.4medium
- Liatu KingMIN0.8± 1.6low
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 1.8medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.6± 1.1medium
- Olivia MilesMIN1.4± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
WSH
50.8%
FG%
44.4
44.5%
39.4%
3PT %
33.1
29.3%
92.6
PPG
85.3
81.4
22.1
Assists / G
18.0
18.8
13.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
16.3