Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+51NY

53-29

14089

ATL

46-36

NBAThu, Apr 30FinalSeriesNY wins series 2-1VegasNY -2.5

NY · top performer

OG Anunoby

F · #8

31.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 7:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	27	29	11-14	4-6	3-5	+42	7	2
K. TownsC · #32	28	12	1-4	0-1	10-10	+35	11	10
J. HartG · #3	27	14	6-10	2-4	0-1	+35	5	2
M. BridgesG · #25	27	24	10-12	2-2	2-2	+40	5	3
J. BrunsonG · #11	29	17	6-12	1-6	4-4	+41	2	8
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	7	4	2-3	0-1	—	0	0	0
P. DadietF · #4	8	5	2-4	1-3	—	-2	1	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	12	2	1-4	0-2	—	-2	4	2
M. RobinsonC · #23	9	6	3-3	—	—	+29	3	0
A. HukportiC · #55	12	3	—	—	3-6	-4	4	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	11	7	2-4	0-1	3-4	+22	0	1
L. ShametG · #44	15	5	2-5	1-3	—	-4	1	0
J. AlvaradoG · #5	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	+12	1	2
M. McBrideG · #2	10	3	1-3	1-3	—	+13	1	0
T. KolekG · #13	12	6	2-5	0-2	2-2	-2	1	3
Team		140	50-85	13-36	27-34		46	33

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	32	4	2-6	0-2	—	-38	6	5
J. JohnsonF · #1	32	21	7-15	2-5	5-5	-43	8	6
C. McCollumG · #3	24	11	4-13	1-4	2-2	-24	3	0
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	29	11	3-8	1-4	4-6	-29	1	2
D. DanielsG · #5	15	3	1-4	1-3	—	-36	0	0
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	15	4	1-7	1-5	1-2	+5	2	1
J. KumingaF · #0	23	11	3-7	1-3	4-6	-44	2	3
M. GueyeF · #18	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	-15	2	2
A. NewellF · #14	7	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	16	8	4-9	0-3	—	-2	3	0
T. BradleyC · #13	8	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+2	3	1
B. HieldG · #8	9	5	2-2	1-1	—	-10	2	0
G. VincentG · #4	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-27	0	0
K. WallaceG · #2	10	4	2-5	0-1	—	+2	3	2
Team		89	31-82	9-35	18-23		35	22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

50-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

31-82

FG %

13-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-35

27-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-2

Apr 18

ATL102@

NY113

Apr 21

ATL107@

NY106

Apr 23

NY108@

ATL109

Apr 25

NY114@

ATL98

Apr 29

ATL97@

NY126

Apr 30

NY140@

ATL89today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-14259%

ATL+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -2.5↗SpreadBet NY -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat ATL 140-89. O. Anunoby paced them with 29 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 40-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 30 REB · 25 AST

GS 103

Bench(10)

44 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 37

ATLstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

50 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST

GS 26

Bench(9)

39 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 26

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	40	43	34	23	140
ATL	15	21	28	25	89

Period scoring

NY won 3 · ATL won 1

Anunoby 14

Alexander-Walker 5

Anunoby 12

McCollum 7

Bridges 8

Johnson 8

Kolek 6

Bradley 5

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

59%

50-85

38%

31-82

36%

13-36

3PT

26%

9-35

79%

27-34

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·17.0
Mohamed Diawara defensive rebound
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·20.0
Zaccharie Risacher misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·24.4
Corey Kispert offensive rebound
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·27.1
Corey Kispert misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·32.1
Tony Bradley defensive rebound
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·36.0
Tony Bradley blocks Tyler Kolek 's 1-foot two point shot
·
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·50.7
Tony Bradley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
NY 140·ATL 89
Q4·1:09
Tyler Kolek makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 140·ATL 86
Q4·1:09
Tyler Kolek makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 139·ATL 86
Q4·1:09
Corey Kispert shooting foul
NY 138·ATL 86
Q4·1:15
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 138·ATL 86
Q4·1:17
Ariel Hukporti blocks Keaton Wallace's driving layup
·
NY 138·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Pacome Dadiet makes running layup (Tyler Kolek assists)
·
NY 138·ATL 86
Q4·1:36
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 136·ATL 86
Q4·1:39
Zaccharie Risacher misses 25-foot three point jumper
NY 136·ATL 86
Q4·1:47
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
NY 136·ATL 86
Q4·1:49
Tyler Kolek misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 136·ATL 86
Q4·1:59
Tony Bradley kicked ball violation
NY 136·ATL 86
Q4·2:14
Zaccharie Risacher makes driving layup (Tony Bradley assists)
·
NY 136·ATL 86
Q4·2:28
Tony Bradley defensive rebound
NY 136·ATL 84
Q4·2:30
Tyler Kolek misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 136·ATL 84
Q4·2:34
Knicks Full timeout
NY 136·ATL 84
Q4·2:36
Corey Kispert lost ball turnover (Mohamed Diawara steals)
·
NY 136·ATL 84
Q4·2:49
Tyler Kolek makes driving layup
NY 136·ATL 84
Q4·2:57
Landry Shamet defensive rebound
NY 134·ATL 84
Q4·3:00
Corey Kispert misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 134·ATL 84
Q4·3:24
Mohamed Diawara out of bounds bad pass turnover
NY 134·ATL 84
Q4·3:32
Asa Newell loose ball foul
NY 134·ATL 84

Betting line

NY -2.5·O/U 215.5·NY -142/ATL +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 140–89. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY -2.5 cashed (won by 51). Total cleared the 215.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
52.7%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
51.3%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
54.5%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ATL vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Jalen JohnsonATL
19.8± 3.8high
CJ McCollumATL
19.4± 8.5high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Jalen JohnsonATL
9.1± 2.5high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

Ryan NembhardATL
6.2± 5.9high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Jalen JohnsonATL
5.8± 1.8high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
CJ McCollumATL
0.9± 0.9high
Onyeka OkongwuATL
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Dyson DanielsATL
2.1± 1.3high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

ATL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

116.4

PPG

114.9

117.2

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Team pages

New York KnicksAtlanta Hawks

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR