Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13PHI

BOS

56-26

93106

PHI

45-37

NBAThu, Apr 30FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBOS -6.5

BOS · top performer

Jayson Tatum

F · #0

11.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 12pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	29	17	6-13	2-6	3-5	-11	11	3
S. HauserF · #30	21	5	2-6	1-5	—	-12	4	1
N. QuetaC · #88	20	4	2-5	—	—	-14	11	0
D. WhiteG · #9	32	11	3-8	3-6	2-2	-25	1	1
J. BrownG · #7	28	18	7-17	2-6	2-6	-24	1	2
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	1	2	1-1	—	—	+4	0	0
N. VucevicC · #4	14	2	1-5	0-2	—	-5	2	1
L. GarzaC · #52	14	9	4-5	1-2	—	+6	2	1
P. PritchardG · #11	36	14	6-16	1-8	1-1	-6	3	5
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	10	3	1-3	1-2	—	+10	3	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	15	5	2-4	1-3	—	+2	3	1
J. WalshG · #27	19	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	+10	5	3
Team		93	36-86	12-41	9-16		46	18
DNP: A. Williams, M. Shulga, H. Gonzalez

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	40	23	8-17	5-9	2-2	+11	4	3
J. EmbiidC · #21	34	19	6-18	1-5	6-7	+7	10	8
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	39	14	6-11	1-3	1-2	+23	9	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	40	30	11-22	3-5	5-5	+15	2	5
V. EdgecombeG · #77	38	14	5-11	1-6	3-3	+18	8	3
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
D. TerryF · #14	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	10	2	1-3	0-2	—	-5	5	0
A. DrummondC · #1	13	2	1-1	—	—	+10	7	0
A. BonaC · #30	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
K. LowryG · #7	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	22	2	1-6	0-3	—	+2	3	2
Team		106	39-89	11-33	17-19		48	22
DNP: J. Walker, J. Broome, D. Barlow

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

36-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-89

FG %

12-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

9-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 19

PHI91@

BOS123

Apr 21

PHI111@

BOS97

Apr 24

BOS108@

PHI100

Apr 26

BOS128@

PHI96

Apr 28

PHI113@

BOS97

May 1

BOS93@

PHI106today

May 2

PHI109@

BOS100

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-23070%

PHI+19034%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -6.5↗SpreadBet BOS -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 106-93. T. Maxey paced them with 30 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST. PHI outscored the other side 38-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 28 REB · 7 AST

GS 29

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST

GS 34

PHIstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST

GS 82

Bench(7)

6 PTS · 15 REB · 2 AST

GS 4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 3:41 · 14-17

+11pp→ 46% WP

Quentin Grimes · makes two point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)

PHI2nd Quarter · 3:21 · 40-49

+7pp→ 69% WP

Paul George · makes 22-foot three pointer

BOS2nd Quarter · 2:49 · 42-51

+12pp→ 43% WP

Joel Embiid · loose ball foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	23	26	14	30	93
PHI	20	38	24	24	106

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · PHI won 2

Tatum 9

Maxey 8

Brown 10

Maxey 13

Brown 5

George 10

Garza 9

Embiid 6

BOS

PHI

Shooting comparison

BOS

PHI

42%

36-86

44%

39-89

29%

12-41

3PT

33%

11-33

56%

9-16

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 93·PHI 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 93·PHI 106
Q4·19.7
shot clock turnover
BOS 93·PHI 106
Q4·19.7
76ers offensive team rebound
BOS 93·PHI 106
Q4·21.7
Justin Edwards misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 93·PHI 106
Q4·43.7
Jordan Walsh makes running dunk
BOS 93·PHI 106
Q4·46.6
Justin Edwards lost ball turnover (Baylor Scheierman steals)
·
BOS 91·PHI 106
Q4·59.8
Dalano Banton makes 1-foot two point shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
BOS 91·PHI 106
Q4·1:13
Kyle Lowry enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
BOS 89·PHI 106
Q4·1:13
Justin Edwards personal take foul
BOS 89·PHI 106
Q4·1:14
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 89·PHI 106
Q4·1:14
Adem Bona enters the game for VJ Edgecombe
·
BOS 89·PHI 105
Q4·1:14
Dalen Terry enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
BOS 89·PHI 105
Q4·1:14
Justin Edwards enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
BOS 89·PHI 105
Q4·1:14
Trendon Watford enters the game for Andre Drummond
·
BOS 89·PHI 105
Q4·1:14
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 89·PHI 105
Q4·1:14
Tyrese Maxey makes technical free throw
BOS 89·PHI 104
Q4·1:14
Dalano Banton enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:14
Ron Harper Jr. technical foul
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:14
(01:14) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:14
Luka Garza shooting foul
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:19
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:22
Payton Pritchard misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:35
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 2-foot driving dunk (Quentin Grimes assists)
·
BOS 89·PHI 103
Q4·1:56
Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 89·PHI 101
Q4·2:03
VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 1
BOS 86·PHI 101
Q4·2:03
Quentin Grimes enters the game for Paul George
·
BOS 86·PHI 100
Q4·2:03
Andre Drummond enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
BOS 86·PHI 100
Q4·2:03
Baylor Scheierman shooting foul
BOS 86·PHI 100
Q4·2:03
VJ Edgecombe makes 2-foot two point shot
BOS 86·PHI 100

Betting line

BOS -6.5·O/U 214.5·BOS -230/PHI +190

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Boston Celtics, 106–93.

PHI +6.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
67.6%
P(PHI win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
66.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.6%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+190

Close price

+190

Open no-vig

33.1%

Close no-vig

33.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PHI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

LeBron JamesPHI
7.2± 2.6high
Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Paul GeorgeBOS
1.5± 1.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high
LeBron JamesPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

PHI

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

46.0%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.3

24.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Team pages

Boston CelticsPhiladelphia 76ers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR